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Skewed Numbers Regarding Covid-19 Deaths Don’t Help

Skewed Numbers Regarding Covid-19 Deaths Don’t Help

Skewed Numbers Regarding Covid-19 Deaths Don’t Help

The numbers of Covid-19 deaths aren’t completely truthful. That was admitted by Dr. Birx during yesterday’s briefing.

“During the White House Wuhan coronavirus task force briefing Tuesday evening, Dr. Deborah Birx said the United States has taken a “liberal approach” in the way doctors classify deaths from the virus.

“The intent is right now if someone dies with COVID-19, we’re counting that as a COVID-19 death,” Birx said. “There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition and let’s say the virus caused you to go the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.””

That’s one thing I realized a few weeks back when seeing reports about Italy’s numbers. Underlying health conditions that have people already immune compromised are at greater risk in regards to this virus. 

My problem with the numbers is that the media has been running with scissors regarding anything and everything Covid-19 and getting so much wrong at every turn. 

“Asked whether the numbers could skew data the government is trying to collect, Birx said that would mostly apply more to rural areas where testing isn’t being implemented on a wide scale.

“I’m pretty confident that in New York City and New Jersey and places that have these large outbreaks and COVID-only hospitals. … I can tell you they are testing,” she said.”

The numbers are skewed and I think that’s a big problem. We’ve seen multiple media reports of people dying from Covid-19, but you have to go past the headlines to realize that that person’s underlying health condition already had them compromised and this damned virus then exacerbated their issues. 

This is a complicated subject for sure. But if we are supposed to be following the models, which were worst case scenario from the beginning, skewing numbers like this is… problematic in my opinion. I’m not the only one either. As Katie Pavlich note, “there’s a difference between dying FROM something and dying WITH something.” Can our economic shutdown be sustained when we are now finding out that the numbers are …not accurate? 

Again, all of this is very complicated. Here in Colorado, the state public health officials are insistent that THEIR super duper model is better than anything else out there. 

“But state public health officials pushed back on those predictions, saying their own modeling — which they are using to guide social-distancing policies — shows the worst is still to come and that it may still be some time before Colorado recovers a sense of pre-pandemic normalcy.

“We are confident our peak has not hit,” Jill Hunsaker Ryan, who leads the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, said in conference call with reporters.

The number of coronavirus cases in Colorado is expected to peak sometime between May 8 and Sept. 14, depending on the effectiveness of social-distancing measures such as the statewide stay-at-home order, according to modeling released by the health department.”

When I read The Denver Post article yesterday, I wanted to reach through the screen and Gibbs slap Jill Ryan. You know why? Because, no matter which way you slice it, if that health official is advocating for this state to stay shut down until September, Colorado businesses won’t survive AT ALL.

Then there’s this regarding Colorado’s ‘better than everyone else’s’ model

“The charts may include cases and deaths reported after the daily update by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment. Not all cumulative cases are active — the state has not released recovery data”

Oh. Well, isn’t that special? I know for a fact that five people have recovered in Colorado. Yet Colorado is refusing to release recovery data? Other states are releasing that data. Recovery numbers give hope. We need to know that yes, there are 399,979 confirmed cases in the United States, but we ALSO need to know that 22, 539 people have recovered from this virus! 

Numbers are important for sure. But being liberal with the numbers doesn’t, in my opinion, help right now. People are sniping and fighting over whether hydroxychloroquinine combined with Zpack is effective because no controlled case studies are being conducted. Battlefield medicine anyone??!! 

Tracking numbers is important throughout all of this. What is MORE important is that the numbers tracked are as accurate as possible. Why? So we can not only battle the disease, but work to swiftly and carefully reopen our economy before it is too late.

Welcome Instapundit Readers!

Feature Photo Credit: fotoblend via Pixabay, cropped and modified

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  • GWB says:

    I’m getting suspicious adjacent

    THAT’S why COVID-19 is labelled as the cause.
    Well, the key word in there is “THE”. Winnie The Flu is not THE cause, but A cause. I’ll go back to my aircraft accident analogy: there’s almost always a list of causes*, and often “pilot error” is one of them. But it may not be THE leading contributor. And, often, breaking the “chain” of causes at ANY one point would have stopped the incident. While it doesn’t always help the media with aircraft accidents**, I think it would be much better to list ALL the causes of death for someone with “co-morbidities”.

    expected to peak sometime between May 8 and Sept. 14
    Holey Moley! What the hell is the standard deviation on that model?!
    Either that model is grotesquely imprecise, or someone needs to learn how to present data better.

    Anyone else notice the shots of chloroquine manufacture in that video all seemed to be of Chinese pharmaceutical factories?

    (* IF the airman had tightened the bolt properly…
    IF the crew chief had wiped the surface properly so a visual inspection could spot the untightened bolt…
    IF the pilot had noticed in his walkaround…
    IF the pilot’s wingman hadn’t pulled into him, causing him to over-G the jet…
    IF the next bolt over had not been “under-spec”…
    IF etc., etc., etc.)

    (** The media still usually breathlessly report “Pilot error caused such-and-such an accident!” Because they’re not just dishonest when it comes to politics. They need blood to write their headlines.)

    • Nina Bookout says:

      Believe me, CO keeps presenting numbers that are miles apart in the calculations …it’s nuts.

  • As of April 8th, the city of San Antonio, Texas, has 92 who have recovered from COVID-19. But Colorado has only FIVE? Apparently Colorado has become so Californicated that it can now live on bull$hit.

  • Paul Jurkoic says:

    Robert A George May be correct as far as his comment goes, but I would prefer more info, in particular was that patient receiving chemotherapy and what effect that would have on the patient’s immune system. Also, what other conditions are present, if any.

  • Stoutcat Anonyme says:

    “Gibbs slap”… I love it.

  • Snidely Whiplash says:

    Last time I saw our models in Colorado they were predicting 900-33,000 deaths. As of yesterday afternoon there were 193. Seasonal flu usually drop to near zero late in spring. How the devil are there going to be another 707 deaths? Not to mention the number of cases (the actual important number) added rated has dropped slight the last two-three days. That might change, but why would it. The stay at home orders have gotten increasingly draconian but the number is just now starting to decrease? Correlation ain’t causation. These hysterics are killing this state, which is pretty much what californicators do. What do you want to bet Polis will use this flu to accelerate his plan go get us to single payor medical?

  • Billd says:

    The first C-19 death reported in NYC was an 80-year old woman who had been admitted one week earlier for emphysema. Had she contracted bacterial pneumonia and died with that instead, it wouldn’t have been news.

  • DAVE says:

    This is nothing new — AIDS numbers were boosted by re-defining the disease ( diagnoses that were never associated with AIDS were added to the category in order to bolster the numbers in the “epidemic” and cancer statistics are routinely tuned up by changing the definitions of the diseases they are counting — ALL to satisfy the models / predictions or to claim victories when none exist); Take a good look at the work of Dr. John Ioannidis for a glimpse of the slippery nature of “statistical” medicine and what constitutes TRUTH. BE VERY WARY of EXPERTS!!!

  • buddhaha says:

    Truism: People that strive for positions of leadership (political office) will have no difficulty telling people what to do.

    Some people “having no difficulty” actually enjoy it.

    Therefore, some number of (most?) politicians enjoy issuing orders.

    Only the naive are surprised by politicians revealing their inner martinet.

  • Joe Glandorf says:

    Your chances of being a victim of covid in ALL the deaths in CT and Washington state have been 7-9% if you were under 60 years of age.

    In MA, 77 recent cases showed the same: 6% of deaths under 60.

    80% of the deaths in people over 60, 50% in people over EIGHTY. Finding death by age stats is RIDICULOUSLY HARD. Why is that?

    Massachusetts 77 new COVID-19 deaths April 2 – 8th

    Age Grp Number %
    40s 1 1%
    50s 4 5%
    60s 4 5%
    70s 20 26%
    80s 32 42%
    90+ 16 21%
    Total 77 88% are 70+ 63% are 80+

    Connecticut Total Covid deaths:

    Age Grp Number %
    <50 13 4%
    50-59 16 5%
    60-69 47 15%
    70-79 80 25%
    80+ 179 56%
    322 81% are 70+ 56% are 80+

    Washington State

    Age Grp %
    -59 7%
    60-79 39%
    80+ 53%
    81% are 60+ 53% are 80+

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