This weekend has been the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), and the last major event of the conference was the speech given by former president and current candidate, Donald Trump.

As some have noted, this year’s CPAC has been more focused on Trump than not. He is the clear front-runner among the current crop of declared candidates (we will leave out potential and undeclared candidates for now), and this group is clearly the base of the “Always Trump” movement (which Toni discussed here). The crowds are not shy about stating their preferences, either.

“I’m not at CPAC. I’m at TPAC,” said John Fredericks, a conservative radio show host who served as the chairman in Virginia for Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns.”

“CPAC is long gone. The Trump forces, the America First movement and the populist movement, of which I’m a key member of and a protectionist, has hijacked CPAC. We own this convention.”

CPAC has long been a major event for conservatives of all stripes to gather and mingle with some of the most popular figures in the Republican Party. But this year’s event has underscored two realities: One, that the annual conference is drawing thinner crowds than it has in the past, as the auditorium where the major speeches were held were often half-full; and two, that most in attendance weren’t particularly interested in seeing party luminaries besides the 45th president.”

Over the past few days, visitors and speakers alike have made clear their support for the former president, whether it was in the trademark red “Make America Great Again” hats and other pro-Trump attire seen among the crowds, or in the overwhelming presence of some of the former president’s biggest allies.”

And it was this crowd that was in attendance for Trump’s speech on Saturday evening, where he presented himself as the only true alternative to “establishment” Republican candidates. This was the perfect crowd to make that particular argument to, naturally – he started off by calling the MAGA movement “the greatest political movement in history” after winning the CPAC straw poll with ease. No surprise and no suspense there.

"Star Trek" convention attendees prefer "Star Trek" to "Star Wars" by 8 to 1 margin. https://t.co/vq2JLltezh

— Varad Mehta (@varadmehta) March 4, 2023

The speech itself started out strong, talking about what is wrong with the state of the country. “We are a nation in decline,” Trump declared. He also used the line that has probably been his most effective argument: “They’re coming after you, and I’m just standing in their way.”

But then he switched gears to the establishment Republican party: “We are never going back to the party of Paul Ryan, Karl Rove, and Jeb Bush.” He then started railing immediately against any changes to Social Security – especially the idea of raising the age, a proposition that does have bipartisan support – or changing anything to Medicare. Trump also pledged to not fund “foreign wars” while not supporting the troops that we do have, and pointing out that the United States are paying the bills for NATO.

Trump’s demeanor was a lot calmer than usual – echoing what we saw in his campaign announcement speech. He’s not nearly as loud and as firey as he used to be. The language is similar, but the volume and delivery is different. Is this maturity, or is this age? Only time will tell.

The speech really felt like a rerun of “Trump’s Greatest Hits,” which, of course, he used when he launched his re-election campaign. And while that is fine in a lot of ways, because it reminds the voters and the base of his past accomplishments, Donald Trump isn’t offering anything beyond what he already has. The problem is that he then acknowledged that the Biden administration immediately reversed all his changes. The issue is institutional, and focused in the overreaches of the Executive branch and legislating by executive order. Trump didn’t start that trend, but he can’t fix it. The only fix will be if Congress gets off their butts and actually behaves like a legislative body instead of a national HOA.

The massive flaw in any freeform Trump speech is that it inevitably gets into a “woe is me” moment. This speech was no different, with him complaining about the investigations and grand juries. While those complaints are legitimate, it’s not going to help him win any new voters. Complaining about Joe Biden and Hunter Biden’s corruption is legitimate, but not when the complaint turns back into his “everyone is picking on me” moment. Trump can’t claim that he is standing in the gap for the American people, and then simultaneously complain that he is being targeted. And he really has to stop calling his phone calls to Zelensky and to Raffensperger “perfect.” He also CANNOT keep bitching and moaning about 2020. If Trump is going to be back out on the campaign trail, he has got to cut this stuff out, tighten up his speeches, and focus his message.

Also, pro tip: please do NOT call Vladimir Putin your “friend” even as you talk about how he never invaded Ukraine while you were president. Yikes.

This speech ran way too long. Eighty percent of this speech could have been trimmed out and it would have been fine. But hey, the crowd at CPAC got what it paid for and what it wanted. If you have a couple hours, the speech can be watched here:

LIVE: President Trump Delivers Remarks at @CPAC! https://t.co/ncDzH93OIf

— Team Trump (Text TRUMP to 88022) (@TeamTrump) March 4, 2023

Trump has had more than one misstep since leaving the presidency – did everyone get their Trump NFT trading cards? – and his demand of absolute loyalty is both designed to inflate his ego and strip his supporters down to only the most hardcore. You can’t win a general election with only your most hardcore supporters. Perhaps a primary, but not a general election. Can Trump pull off a repeat of 2016 and broaden his appeal once again to the general electorate? Yes, and it would be foolish to underestimate him. Will it be more difficult this time around because of the historical baggage he now carries? Also yes, and it would be foolish to ignore that.

Featured image: original Victory Girls art by Darleen Click