The State Department, through the U.S. Embassy in Russia, is telling all Americans in Russia to leave immediately. Again.

This is nothing new – the State Department gave the same warning at the beginning of the Ukraine invasion. Is it because we are reaching the first anniversary of that invasion and the beginning of the war? Or is there something else going on? All the embassy says is, “get out now and we really can’t help you.”

Do not travel to Russia due to the unpredictable consequences of the unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian military forces, the potential for harassment and the singling out of U.S. citizens for detention by Russian government security officials, the arbitrary enforcement of local law, limited flights into and out of Russia, the Embassy’s limited ability to assist U.S. citizens in Russia, and the possibility of terrorism. U.S. citizens residing or travelling in Russia should depart immediately. Exercise increased caution due to the risk of wrongful detentions.”

The U.S. government’s ability to provide routine or emergency services to U.S. citizens in Russia is severely limited, particularly in areas far from the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, due to Russian government limitations on travel for embassy personnel and staffing, and the ongoing suspension of operations, including consular services, at U.S. consulates.”

In September, the Russian government mobilized citizens to the armed forces in support of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals’ U.S. citizenship, deny their access to U.S. consular assistance, subject them to mobilization, prevent their departure from Russia, and/or conscript them.”

U.S. citizens should note that U.S. credit and debit cards no longer work in Russia, and options to electronically transfer funds from the United States are extremely limited due to sanctions imposed on Russian banks. There are reports of cash shortages within Russia.”

Commercial flight options are extremely limited and are often unavailable on short notice. If you wish to depart Russia, you should make independent arrangements as soon as possible. The U.S. Embassy has severe limitations on its ability to assist U.S. citizens to depart the country and transportation options may suddenly become even more limited. Click here for Information for U.S. Citizens Seeking to Depart Russia.”

This has shades of Afghanistan that I really don’t like, but let’s parse this out a little. Americans in Russia were told to “consider departing immediately” last February as the war started. As the new State Department notice says, a second warning was issued in September. Is the third time the charm?

Also, which Americans would be left in Russia at this point? If nothing else, the Brittany Griner arrest and conviction – and exchange – should have been a wake-up call to anyone still there. Griner’s arrest happened after the start of the Ukraine war. Trevor Reed’s release was completed after the start of the war. Paul Whelan is still in prison, so there is at least one American who won’t be leaving. Again, it has become obvious to anyone that Russia is more than happy to arrest Americans for whatever they want, and then use those arrested as leverage. So who on earth would still be in Russia? Maybe some business people, maybe a few journalists, maybe missionaries, perhaps some dual citizens, but you would think that over the course of the last year, those who could get out WOULD get out. At this point, if anyone with American citizenship is still in Russia, they have probably resigned themselves to staying and taking the risk.

Which leads me again to think of Afghanistan. The way this statement is worded makes it sound like we are headed for a diplomatic break with Russia, where the embassy might just be up and closed. That would be a disaster, to put it mildly. While I don’t think embassy employees would be evacuated off the roof like in Kabul, they could be evacuated in the middle of the night, and anyone who then got to the embassy would find it deserted and padlocked – right until Russian forces decide to smash in the doors and see what they can find.

Between Afghanistan, China, and now this, I don’t think anyone can call Joe Biden a successful foreign policy president. Ukraine is the only place where Biden can claim a measure of success, and we are dumping billions of dollars into the conflict to keep it that way. What is really behind this latest warning from the State Department might be nothing more than concerns about the anniversary of the start of the war. But it is sending a signal that was first broadcast to the world in Afghanistan – if Americans are stuck in a hostile nation, the United States no longer has the ability or the might to get you out. It’s not a comforting message.

Featured image via opsa on Pixabay, cropped, Pixabay license