We are just a smidge under eight months away from the Iowa caucus. The first poll coming out of the state shows that the Democrat primary is far from over.

Joe Biden has a lead, yes, as is indicated in all the current polling – but it is neither enthusiastic or strong.

The new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom survey of likely Iowa caucusgoers released Saturday shows that although Biden’s support registered at 24 percent — down 3 percentage points since the last poll — he has stretched his lead to 8 points over Sanders, up from 2 points in March.

Sanders and Warren registered at 16 percent and 15 percent respectively, with Sanders’ support decreasing by 9 points since the previous poll. Sanders narrowly lost the 2016 Iowa caucuses to Hillary Clinton.

Buttigieg made a strong debut at 14 percent — 1 percentage point behind Warren. Sen. Kamala Harris remains steady at 7 percent compared with the previous Iowa poll. Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke dropped 3 percentage points and is at 2 percent. Sen. Amy Klobuchar registered at 2 percent, and Sen. Cory Booker at 1 percent.

New York Mayor Bill de Blasio was not listed by a single poll respondent as either first or second choice for president.

Is it wrong that I’m laughing at Bill de Blasio – who seems to still suffer under the delusion that he is important?

Even though the upcoming debates will take in the supposed “top 20” candidates, we really have narrowed the field down to the top five – Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Kamala Harris. Barring something dramatic happening in the next few weeks, these are the most likely top contenders for the nomination. Now, this is not to say that someone like Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke or Cory Booker could still make a strong showing in a state like Iowa. It does mean that in a crowded thunderdome of a Democrat primary, a good showing in an early state is not going to get you to the finish line at the convention. Sorry, Spartacus.

Let’s look at each of the top five candidates.

Biden is undoubtedly in trouble. Being the front-runner means that there’s a target on his back, and he’s continued to add targets over the last week. Between plagiarism rearing its ugly head again in a Biden campaign, and the flippity-floppity dance on the Hyde Amendment, Biden has hobbled himself. Add to that the news that Alyssa Milano may have had a hand in pushing Biden on abortion, and it begins to look like Sleepy Joe is actually Spineless Joe. The party base shifted to the left, and Biden has allowed the tide to push him leftward as well. Instead of standing on his record, Biden stepped off to pander. It will help him with the base. It won’t help when he goes to court independents.

Sanders has not been able to recapture the momentum of 2016, even though he has tried. He’s got universal name recognition, a devoted fan base, and at least is honest about his deep and abiding love for socialism. And yet, Elizabeth Warren is only one point behind him? It’s beginning to look like Bernie’s moment has passed him by.

Warren is surging in the polls and tossing out one platform plank after another, even though she’s been now infamously and hysterically compared to Rachel Dolezal, and is still as awkward as she was when she went for a beer at her own home. You don’t think one of Warren’s opponents won’t play the Dolezal card on her in a debate?

Harris should be running away with this. She checks off all the boxes that the Democrats claim that they want. The only problem is that Kamala Harris keeps tripping herself up. When Harris is stuck for what an appropriate answer should be to ANY question, her default response is to say “I think we should have a conversation about that.”

Kamala Harris never heard a radical or socialist policy she doesn't want to "have a conversation" about

The latest: packing the Supreme Court https://t.co/nDAm0LmdAppic.twitter.com/FKF10cTrbW

— Elizabeth Harrington (@LizRNC) May 15, 2019

Harris’s perceived “intersectionality” is keeping her in this race, but Biden is pulling more support from the African-American community than Harris. That’s both amazing and telling.

Buttigieg has displaced Beto as the media darling, and has both youth and intersectionality on his side. However, he simply doesn’t sound unique. He’s got the same hard left positions as Warren, Harris, and Sanders. Buttigieg is probably running tops on everyone’s list as a vice-presidential candidate, but he won’t be able to overtake Biden – not in name recognition, not in accomplishment, and not in the polls.

This race is still shaping up to be Biden’s to lose. But it does look like he is fully capable of losing it. The other candidates have to be smelling the blood in the water, and you’d better believe that if they can stick it to Biden in a debate, they will. It might not be one of the other top five, but they will certainly be sitting back and enjoying the spectacle if Klobuchar, Gillibrand, or Beto get a dig in at Biden’s expense. They all have to go through Biden first to get to Trump.

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