With Joe Manchin striking a deal with Chuck Schumer on this so-called “Inflation Reduction Act,” the bill only has two obstacles remaining. And one of them is Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona.

Can I just say AGAIN just how important it is that the Republicans regain the Senate? Obviously having control of the House will be a huge help, but the Senate should be in play as well. The GOP has several races that need to be won this cycle, and if candidates keep getting chosen for their loyalty to Donald Trump over their actual competency, then the GOP could be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Do we really want ANOTHER two years of trying to convince ourselves that Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema will keep standing up to the hard left? Because Manchin has apparently folded on that front, after making the rounds on TV trying to convince everyone that this bill is totally great and won’t wreck the economy and tax everyone.

Manchin has swallowed the whole poison pill, despite what analysts are saying about the “Inflation Reduction Act.” Just because you call it that, doesn’t mean it will actually DO it.

The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) revealed in an analysis last week that the Manchin bill, which would spend $433 billion on climate change initiatives, would increase taxes by billions of dollars, including on middle-class earners.”

According to the JCT, Americans making less than $10,000 per year would see a 0.3% tax hike starting in 2023. Overall, starting in 2023, taxes would increase by $16.7 billion for Americans earning less than $200,000. For taxpayers earning between $200,000 and $500,000, the bill would increase taxes cumulatively by $14.1 billion.”

So the bill will raise taxes, and likely cost jobs.

Findings from the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan group that advocates for lower taxes, show the initiative could eliminate roughly 30,000 full-time positions from the U.S. economy. It would also reduce average after-tax incomes for taxpayers across every income bracket over the long-term.”

“By reducing long-run economic growth, this bill may actually worsen inflation by constraining the productive capacity of the economy,” the analysis said.”

Why is Manchin supporting this bill? Politico thinks they found the reason why he’s all in.

Before Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) lent his crucial vote to his party’s climate, tax and healthcare package, he got a commitment from Democratic leaders to pass energy permitting legislation. And Manchin on Monday released details of that side agreement that make clear he’s secured the construction of a major home-state natural gas pipeline in the process.”

Notably, the document says the legislation will “require the relevant agencies to take all necessary actions to permit the construction and operation of the Mountain Valley Pipeline.” Manchin, also the chair of the Energy Committee, has called for the completion of the natural gas pipeline, which would send natural gas through his home state of West Virginia to the East Coast, for years.”

So, in a bill meant to spend billions on “climate change,” it looks like Manchin got a pretty sweet compensatory deal for a natural gas pipeline. And that pipeline will get glossed over with all this “green” spending in the bill.

The problem is, Manchin got his goodies, but he apparently thought that Sinema would just fall in line and didn’t bring a lollipop for her – and didn’t ask her if she wanted one.

Manchin finally got a chance to speak to Sinema after lunch Tuesday, when she was scheduled to preside over the chamber.”

Manchin was tight-lipped about the details of the conversation but made clear that he’s willing to consider changes she might want to make to the deal, which would raise $739 billion in new revenue over the next decade and reduce the deficit by more than $300 billion.”

“We had a nice time. We had a nice time. Next?” Manchin said Tuesday when reporters pressed him for details of his chat with Sinema while she sat at the Senate dais.”

Asked again to shed any light on whether Sinema will vote for the bill, which would give President Biden the biggest legislative victory of this first two years in office, Manchin said his colleague would make her own decision.”

“We’re exchanging text back and forth,” he said, adding that Sinema is “extremely bright. She works hard. She makes good decisions based on facts. I’m reliant on that.”

What has become clearer is that Manchin had to track Sinema down to talk to her, because she didn’t return his call earlier, so he had to go talk to her in front of the cameras on the Senate floor.

SPOTTED: MANCHIN & SINEMA talking on the Senate floor. pic.twitter.com/D6Y6NOVf2u

— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) August 2, 2022

Sinema doesn’t seem particularly thrilled. Whether she is not happy about being left out of the negotiation loop, or she’s not happy about the “Inflation Reduction Act” and what’s in it, no one knows.

“Taking my time,” Kyrsten Sinema says when asked about the reconciliation bill that Dem leaders want to pass by this weekend, per @morgan_rimmer. She has not commented on the bill since it was released, and her office says she’s waiting for the parliamentarian ruling

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) August 3, 2022

Remember when I said that Sinema was one of two obstacles to this bill (which is just a “Build Back Better Lite”)? The other obstacle is the Senate parliamentarian. If the Democrats are planning on using reconciliation in order to pass this bill, they need all 50 Democrat senators plus Kamala Harris on board, and they need the approval of the Senate parliamentarian in order to use the reconciliation voting procedure. And the parliamentarian has upset the Democrats’ plans before, by pointing out that they can’t sneak policy changes into a budgetary bill. Will the “climate change” billions and Manchin’s pipeline pass the smell test?

Sinema loses nothing by waiting for the parliamentarian’s ruling, even as Democrats are getting testy about waiting for her and Republicans plan for a “vote-a-rama” by filing tons of amendments to the bill that will force the Democrats to be present for up-or-down votes. Will Sinema fall in line with the Democrats? Depends on what the parliamentarian says. Buckle up, everyone.

Featured image: Kyrsten Sinema (official 2018 photo), modified, public domain