Control of the Senate is absolutely crucial to the GOP in this midterm election, if for no other reason than the continuing nomination and confirmation of judicial candidates. Here are five Senate races to pay particular attention to on Election Day.

1) Texas: Ted Cruz (R-incumbent) vs. Beto O’Rourke (D)
This is a race to watch not because the outcome is currently in doubt (Cruz currently holds a lead in every single poll), but because Beto has gotten so much national attention from Hollywood, a whole lot of campaign donations, and some really cringeworthy fan videos. It’s clear that Beto O’Rourke is being groomed for bigger and better races. Whether his old DUI continues to follow him, or now the potential FEC violations by his Senate campaign become an issue, we probably haven’t heard the last of this guy.

2) Arizona: Martha McSally (R) vs. Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Jeff Flake is leaving this seat open, and for a while, Sinema looked to have some serious momentum. Then her leftist past caught up to her, and shrunk the lead in the polls to a statistical tie. Will it be enough for McSally to win? It will really come down to the turnout on Election Day. This could be a seat the Democrats could pick up, but if they lose, it’s because they picked a left-wing activist with a big mouth to run.

3) Missouri: Claire McCaskill (D-incumbent) vs. Josh Hawley (R)
This wasn’t supposed to be a competitive race on the national radar. McCaskill has escaped being defeated before thanks to the ineptitude of her challengers. This time, she may actually lose (the race is a statistical tie) – and if she does, her no vote on Justice Kavanaugh may have played a large part of it (even though she is desperately saying interesting things to pander to her voters). Missouri went for Trump in 2016 – will it still break red to elect Hawley over McCaskill? This would be quite the upset, and a gained seat.

4) North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp (D-incumbent) vs. Kevin Cramer (R)
Now, this was supposed to be a competitive race. North Dakota is a red state, and Senator Heitkamp was seen as a potential confirmation vote for Justice Kavanaugh. She opted to stick with the Democrat party line and voted no. That cost her, and it might have been enough for Cramer to defeat her. Heitkamp herself certainly thinks so.

But what was really the nail in the proverbial political coffin was the “own goal” that the Heitkamp campaign committed with the publishing of the names of sexual assault victims – and the names of others who were NOT victims – in a political ad without the permission of the women being named. Heitkamp apologized, but every poll indicates she will lose, and lose bigly. The GOP will gain this seat.

5) New Jersey: Robert Menendez (D-incumbent) vs. Bob Hugin (R)
You will know there is no “blue wave” if Senator Robert Menendez only wins by a few points. You will also know that it is a “red wave” if he actually LOSES. When your own local newspaper editorials are basically telling people that you’re terrible, but vote for you anyway… that’s not a ringing endorsement.

Choke it down, and vote for Menendez | Editorial https://t.co/SVofJ8XMhs

— The Star-Ledger (@starledger) October 28, 2018

Because even though you barely escaped corruption charges and you barely won your primary, the real question is if New Jersey voters dislike Trump more than they obviously loathe Menendez.

Shorter: We are a liberal newspaper and even though Menendez is an unethical crook he's liberal so vote for him #NJsen https://t.co/Y3oqI59Dbq

— Cam Mason (@cam_mason) October 29, 2018

New Jersey hasn’t had a Republican senator elected in over 40 years. If anyone deserves to lose, it’s Menendez.

There are many more interesting Senate races to keep track of (Michigan and Montana come to mind), but conventional wisdom says that the GOP is going to retain control of the Senate, and may even pad their majority a little. In a midterm election year, with as much focus as the Senate has gotten with the Kavanaugh confirmation, that is nothing short of extraordinary.

Featured image via Pixabay