This coming Saturday, Taiwan will be holding its presidential election. Everyone should be prepared for what China may do after the votes are counted.

If Taiwan were the United States, then everyone and their mom would be screaming about China’s “election interference.” Not only did China send over their infamous spy balloons to check things out, they also launched a satellite that ended up accidentally triggering an air raid alert in Taiwan. China wants Taiwan to surrender “peacefully” to them, and since Xi allegedly said as much to Joe Biden’s face (goodness knows if Biden’s remaining brain cells were actually firing at that particular moment), what comes next isn’t going to be much of a shock. And threatened trade bans might be the least of their problems.

There are a couple of interesting factors involved in this election, though. Let’s have a look, and then consider what China might do once the election is over.

First, there are three candidates running for president, though one is considered more of a third-party moderate. China is deeply opposed to current Vice President Lai Ching-te, who would definitely NOT surrender peacefully to Xi and his Communist drones.

The vote has become something of a referendum on what Taiwan’s relationship with China ought to be. Lai Ching-te, the current vice president of Taiwan and the presidential candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party, has defined the election as a choice between “allowing Taiwan to continue to move forward on the road of democracy” or “walking into the embrace of China.” Beijing has framed Taiwan’s choice in even starker terms, as one between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.”

That language came from Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office, which manages relations with the island, in a not-very-subtle attempt to scare Taiwan voters away from supporting Lai. Beijing believes that the DPP is plotting to declare formal independence for Taiwan—anathema to the Communist regime, which insists that the island is an integral part of China. Lai has stated that he has no such plan, but Beijing has surely noted that DPP members are more independent-minded and willing to test Xi’s patience than those of the other major parties. Lai has made the case that declaring independence is “not necessary,” because “Taiwan is already a sovereign, independent country” and “not subordinate” to the government in Beijing.

Ironically, the Communists would much prefer that their historical archnemesis—the Kuomintang (KMT), which they chased off the mainland at the climax of China’s civil war in 1949—win the presidency. The KMT is in no rush to unify with China either, but it approaches Beijing with caution and argues that Taiwan is best served by constructive relations with the mainland. The KMT’s candidate, Hou Yu-ih, the mayor of New Taipei, is therefore more emphatic than Lai in his opposition to Taiwan independence, which, he said, “will only lead to war.” Beijing perceives the KMT as more committed than the DPP to the status quo, and Xi would be more likely to engage with Taipei if Hou wins the presidency.

But Xi probably won’t get what he wants. Hou has consistently trailed in the polls, and if anything, Beijing’s overt attempt to sway the vote may have damaged his appeal to an electorate sensitive to Chinese interference.

The third-party candidate, Ko Wen-je, is trying to split the difference between the DPP and the KMT parties, but per the final election poll taken (Taiwan stops all election polling ten days before the election), is sitting in third place, despite support from the younger generation.

Current incumbent DPP President Tsai Ing-wen has faced frequent angry warnings from Chinese officials since coming to power eight years ago – and can’t run again due to term limits.

While many young voters supported Tsai in the last presidential election, recent opinion polls have shown that many of them are now supporting a third-party candidate: Former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), a party he founded five years ago.

Branding himself as a “pragmatic” choice, Ko is perhaps less ideological than the other two candidates, incumbent vice president Lai Ching-te from the DPP and New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih from the Kuomintang party (KMT).

Lai has said he will follow Tsai’s policy roadmap and emphasizes that Taiwan is not subordinate to Beijing. Hou has framed the election as a choice between “war and peace,” adding that only his party can reduce the risk of war with China, whose Communist rulers claim Taiwan as part of its territory despite never having controlled it and have vowed to “reunify” with the island by force, if necessary.

Meanwhile, Ko said he will continue to build up deterrence while engaging in regular dialogue with Beijing – though he hasn’t specified how he will achieve that.

However, that younger generation also does not see themselves as Chinese, but Taiwanese – but many also just want to keep things as they are, and seem willfully blind to what China’s ultimate aims are.

CNN recently interviewed a dozen young Taiwanese in their 20s and 30s across the political spectrum to understand their voting priorities.

While almost everyone identified as Taiwanese, not Chinese, the majority told CNN they did not view China as the most important factor in this election – because they did not think the status quo will change in the short term.

“Both [DPP and KMT] are just competing on ideologies, but for me, neither independence nor unification is realistic, and our lives haven’t really improved regardless of which side was in charge,” said Charles Shen, a 34-year-old civil servant from New Taipei city.

Monica Cheng, a 28-year-old sports coach from the southern Tainan city, traditionally a stronghold for the DPP, said she was tired of arguments over political rhetoric.

“We have always known Taiwan as a country, and we are Taiwanese,” she said. “But I don’t think there is any difference between the Republic of China and Taiwan, and I think any debate over this only leads to greater political division.”

Some young Taiwanese voters told CNN they believe the ongoing debate about Taiwan’s future is ideological because the only feasible option is to maintain the current status quo – an arrangement under which Taiwan remains self-ruled, with its ultimate status undetermined.

I hate to break it to the Gen Z of Taiwan, but China is looking to upend your status quo, which will mean you will have to make some hard decisions. Ask the Gen Z of Hong Kong how that has turned out for them. Lai Ching-te, at least, is quite aware that Xi’s grip has crushed Hong Kong, and is looking to strangle Taiwan next.

Taiwan’s leaders have certainly learned the lessons of Hong Kong. At a news conference just days before the polls, the DPP’s Lai said, “Peace is priceless and war has no winners,” but “peace without sovereignty is just like Hong Kong. It is fake peace.”

So, what will happen if Lai wins the presidential election? First of all, someone should make sure that Biden is not on vacation, mentally or physically, so that he can immediately call Lai to congratulate him and assure him that the United States backs Taiwan. That has been Joe Biden’s policy, if not his administration’s. Second, someone should make sure that Antony Blinken takes his daily iron vitamin to stiffen up his spine, and make sure that Taiwan knows that we support their ability to trade freely – and if China decides to blockade Taiwan, that the United States will make every diplomatic effort to support Taiwan. Third, someone needs to make sure that Lloyd Austin is awake and able to make decisions (after all, we can’t be sure after the Secretary of Defense hid his prostate cancer surgery, lied about being under general anesthesia, and then hid that he was in the ICU after contracting a post-surgery urinary tract infection and other problems), and have the Pentagon communicate with Taiwan to beef up an American military presence in Asia. These are the things that SHOULD happen. But considering the amount of chaos that the Biden administration is willing to put up with internally, and Biden’s own wimpy platitudes about how we are only in “competition, not conflict” with China, no one should be confident that these things actually WILL happen.

Taiwan seems to be fully aware that what happened to Hong Kong is what Xi intends for them as well. Now we all get to watch and wait for what happens on Saturday.

Featured image: composite of Taiwan flag via Winston Chen on Unsplash (Unsplash license) and Chinese flag via SW1994 on Pixabay (Pixabay license)