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China wants to “annex” Taiwan back into the Communist fold. This has been obvious for decades.
However, with the successful takeover of Hong Kong and the focus of the world on Russia and Ukraine, China has to be feeling very confident about their options. After all, they have been overtly signaling their intentions for a long time now. Also, the fact that Joe Biden is extraordinarily weak on foreign policy – again, this is why Afghanistan mattered so much – means that even though he is saying that Taiwan has the military support of the United States…
…also means that he cannot be trusted when he gives these pronouncements.
There is little wonder why China is simply looking at the calendar and making plans for Taiwan. After all, there is no benefit in waiting for them. Given the Biden administration’s ineptitude and weakness, it is almost a given that China will make some kind of aggressive takeover move on Taiwan before the 2024 presidential election. Even if Joe Biden decides (or has the decision made for him, like so many other things) that he is not running for re-election, there will never be a more opportune moment for China.
Which is why some Republicans are looking to “fast-track” weapons to Taiwan right now.
(Indiana Republican Representative Jim) Banks, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, said the Biden administration was caught off guard by Russia’s incursion, proving that “you can’t deter an invasion after it happens.” China is learning lessons from its Russian ally, fueling concerns that Beijing will make good on its threats to invade Taiwan sooner rather than later. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin raised the prospect of a Chinese attack on Taiwan during a speech over the weekend, saying, “We will defend our interests without flinching.”
“China breached Taiwan’s airspace a record number of times in 2021,” Banks told the Free Beacon. “House Republicans can’t let Joe Biden repeat the same mistakes he made in Ukraine. You can’t deter an invasion after it happens and Congress and the Biden administration should be entirely unified around the need to send Taiwan defensive weaponry to dissuade Xi from starting a war of aggression.”
Banks, who has repeatedly pressed the Biden administration in multiple forums to “unequivocally and publicly” commit to defending Taiwan in the event of an invasion, said the Taiwan Weapons Exports Act would serve as a central legislative vehicle to deter Beijing.”
It would boost Taiwan’s trade standing to make it a central U.S. ally in the same way that NATO members like Japan and South Korea are, according to a full copy of the bill provided to the Free Beacon. It also would expedite licensing approval for weapons shipments to Taiwan and remove other administrative barriers that could slow the process. The measure also cuts in half the amount of time these types of weapons deals are reviewed by Congress, making it easier for military equipment to actually arrive in Taiwan.”
A Senate companion version of the bill is being spearheaded by Sen. Josh Hawley (R., Mo.).”
This is a good move and an important one, given the strategic importance of Taiwan to the United States. Could this be one of those rare occasions when bipartisanship could prevail in Congress? It could be, given the Biden administration’s lip service to the safety and security of Taiwan. Congressman Banks is correct that all the sanctions on Russia occurred too late to stop the invasion of Ukraine, so something HAS to be done pre-emptively for Taiwan in order to keep China on their side of the strait between them. Deterrence is the only way that China doesn’t invade before 2024 – and even then, it’s still no guarantee that they won’t try it.
Would anyone be shocked if, in the next few months, Taiwan announced that they had enough matériel to construct a nuclear bomb? I know that I wouldn’t be surprised one bit.
Featured image: composite of Taiwan flag via Winston Chen on Unsplash (Unsplash license) and Chinese flag via SW1994 on Pixabay (Pixabay license)
Cameron says: I think if Taiwan has nukes, they’re waiting to surprise Beijing. And I stand by my earlier statement:
The first thing Taiwan should do when China gets too uppity is launch every missile they have with the ability to travel that far into the Three Gorges Dam. Throw in a few bombers as well. And when the world is gasping in shock, they go Dresden on Beijing.
Communism delenda est.
BSmith says: Hmm, that’s not bad. How many cruise missiles would that take I wonder?
Cameron says: Add one to that total for both targets.
Hate_me says: My guess – and I hope I’m wrong – is that PRC will actively move on ROC by November.
I’m not suggesting they’ll invade, boots on ground, by then; I imagine it will start with some form of an economic blockade. In the States, we like to compartmentalize our strategic policy (usually by cabinet secretariats)… China’s approach will be much more holistic.
Stavanzer says: No, Taiwan does NOT need our help. We need to Keep our nose out of that whole trouble spot. The time is long past to be playing games with Red China nd the R.O.C. They will be joining peacefully in the next few years any how as the families of ROC and Mainland intermarry and business continues to flow both ways. Never forget that at base, they are both Chinese, and the Chinese always look after their own first.
bob sykes says: “China breached Taiwan’s airspace a record number of times in 2021,” Banks told the Free Beacon.
That is untrue. China routinely flies warplanes through Taiwan’s Air Defense Indentification Zone, but that is not Taiwanese air space. It’s merely an area under radar surveillance. It has no status in international law. ADIZ’s are maintained by most countries and are ignored by almost everyone, including the US. Taiwan’s actually extends into China itself, so Chinese aircraft in hangars are in it.
As to Taiwan, in 1972 the US recognized that Taiwan was a province in China, and that the CPC was the legitimate government of China. We (Nixon and Kissinger) did that to prevent an alliance between the Soviet Union and China, which would control most of Asia and Europe. The lunatic neocons who have seized control of the US are abandoning our 50 year-old China policy. In doing so, they have created Kissinger’s Eurasian nightmare, and they have destroyed the Pax Americana. China and Russia will be the next world hegemon, and we will fade into history’s footnotes.
Taiwan is irrelevant to American security, and the US will be destroyed if it intervenes in any Chinese attempt to reunify China.
Cameron says: “Reunification” is a pretty way to say “Subjugation.” Taiwan is its own nation. There is nothing you or Beijing can say to counter that.
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