It’s been two weeks since the House was thrown into chaos. Will the chaos end today with the election of Jim Jordan as Speaker of the House?

The short answer: no one knows. The long answer: maybe, but Jordan is still facing recalcitrant Republicans who could continue to prolong the pain and embarassment that started when Matt Gaetz and Nancy Mace, plus six other Republicans and every single House Democrat, ousted Kevin McCarthy from the Speaker’s seat.

The Democrats, even with all their internal divisions, are not allowed to step out of line. Nancy Pelosi was good at ruling with an iron fist, and didn’t let her caucus step out on her. The GOP has never governed in that fashion, which has its pros and cons. We have been seeing the cons of that approach since the 15 rounds of votes this last January that finally got McCarthy elected. The same problem exists today that existed back in January. Holdouts were opposed to McCarthy, and finally conceded to vote “present” in order to allow him to be elected Speaker. There are currently a handful of representatives that are similarly opposed to Jordan, though apparently less than were opposed in the end to Steve Scalise. Will the holdouts choose to force multiple rounds again?

Several Republicans are still holding out against Jordan’s bid. The House Judiciary Committee chairman can only afford to lose four conference members due to House Republicans’ slim majority.

Those who stand in opposition include Reps. Don Bacon (R-NE), Mike Lawler (R-NY), Mike Kelly (R-PA), Carlos Gimenez (R-FL), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL), Victoria Spartz (R-IN), Freedom Caucus member Ken Buck (R-CO), and John Rutherford (R-FL).

Those aren’t all the holdouts, but some representatives are being quiet on how they plan to vote. Others have decided to back Jordan after previously saying that they wouldn’t.

Jordan’s bid to win the speaker’s gavel made progress on Monday as several centrist Republicans and establishment allies who had projected significant doubt flipped to declare their support for him.

Reps. Mike Rogers (R-AL), Ken Calvert (R-CA), Ann Wagner (R-MO), and Vern Buchanan (R-FL) were some of the most outspoken opponents of Jordan’s bid for the speakership. However, each of the members announced his or her support for him on Monday, paving a promising path for Jordan to reach the speaker’s gavel.

For his part, Jordan sounds like he might be ready to go fifteen rounds again.

I am going to say one thing – if Jordan is elected as Speaker, he needs to start wearing a jacket. Seriously. Put the sport coat on. I know that his whole shtick up to this point has been the shirtsleeves and tie look, but if you’re going to be Speaker of the House, start dressing the part.

Democrats, of course, are loudly upset about Jordan possibly becoming Speaker.

House Democrats have blasted Republicans for putting forward Jordan as the next potential speaker. “I was the last person on the floor January 6, and the idea that this guy is the Republican nominee to be speaker, a guy who aggressively agitated the activities that happened on January 6, I think is disgusting,” said Rep. Jim McGovern, a Massachusetts Democrat.

May I remind Democrats that they helped make this moment by voting against Kevin McCarthy? Surprise, surprise, surprise – wishing on the monkey’s paw may yet backfire on them.

Buckle your seatbelts, everyone – we may be in for a bumpy ride. This post will be updated as events unfold.

UPDATE 1:15 PM ET
It’s not happening in the first round of voting.

He won't be getting it on the first ballot — which is expected

What is no expected — this many No's this early in the roll call https://t.co/axhodP0Nqv

— Olivia Beavers (@Olivia_Beavers) October 17, 2023

The voting is still ongoing, but Jordan has lost too many votes to be elected in this round. He can only lose four votes. McCarthy and Scalise have each gotten three votes so far, but they are both backing Jordan. Will these votes flip in round two? We shall see.

Featured image: Representative Jim Jordan (R-OH), official Congressional portrait, cropped, public domain