Reality Bites Trump Supporters: Clinton Has Gotten More Primary Votes

Reality Bites Trump Supporters: Clinton Has Gotten More Primary Votes

Reality Bites Trump Supporters: Clinton Has Gotten More Primary Votes

On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal editorial board pointed out something that Donald Trump just didn’t want to hear: that despite his blustering over all the primary and caucus votes he’s received, Hillary Clinton has amassed about 1 million more.


On cue, Donald Trump rebutted the WSJ with his discerning and witty insight:

And, over the criticism the WSJ leveled at Trump for refusing to participate in a scheduled debate, Trump roared:

Right. Like Drudge online polling represents scientific methods. Don’t make me laugh.

The WSJ also pointed out actual numbers, along with other inconvenient truths for Trump:

“Actually his rise has been cleared by the large and fractured GOP field. Of the 20.35 million GOP primary votes cast so far, he has received 7.54 million, or a mere 37%. Despite the media desire to call him unstoppable, Mr. Trump is the weakest Republican front-runner since Gerald Ford in 1976.” (Boldface mine)


“The opinions he should care about are the 39% of GOP voters who said in Tuesday’s exit polls that they would consider supporting a third-party candidate if Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton are the nominees, or the 44% of non-Trump GOP voters who said they won’t cast a ballot for him in November.”

Furthermore, Trump loses to Hillary Clinton in five of the last six polls taken, with anywhere from a five to nine points deficit.

But, but, but! the Trump supporters will sputter. Ronald Reagan was 20 points behind Jimmy Carter in 1980 polling, and you see how that turned out!

That comparison to a 36-year-old election cycle has multiple fallacies, which I’ve listed below. (For a more inside-baseball explanation, read here.)

  • All the public polling in 1980 came from one pollster, Gallup. Today we have the advantage of multiple pollsters. As one political writer explained: “But if RealClearPolitics or had existed in 1980, the conventional wisdom would have been a little different.”
  • Jimmy Carter received a temporary bump in polling, partly due to Americans rallying around him as the Iranian hostage crisis occurred, but then it collapsed again as the crisis went on with no end in sight.
  • The Republican primary calendar was quite different; early polls were taken before Reagan began winning primaries. Furthermore, Reagan was able to rally primary voters with large majorities, something Trump has not done. While Carter was losing steam, Reagan was on an upward trajectory that was unstoppable. Additionally, Carter and Reagan held only one debate.
Carter-Reagan trajectories in 1980 campaign. Click to enlarge.
  • Reagan was already seen as a political power house, as he had nearly defeated Gerald Ford for the Republican nomination in 1976.
  • Trump is very, very unpopular. While Hillary is not exactly Ms. Popularity herself, Trump’s negatives poll over 60%, with Clinton’s at 53%. Reagan projected a basic decency and optimism, the antithesis of what Trump exhibits.

Meantime, Ted Cruz beats Hillary Clinton in head-to-head polling. The Texas senator is also drawing more of the anti-Trump forces than is John Kasich.

With Rubio out of the running, it’s time to unite the clans around one candidate to take down Donald Trump.

Reality bites for Trump supporters. If Trump wins the Republican nomination, they’ll hysterically cheer, but they will have also given us a poisoned candidate who will bring about four more years of a Democratic presidency.

Written by

Kim is a pint-sized patriot who packs some big contradictions. She is a Baby Boomer who never became a hippie, an active Republican who first registered as a Democrat (okay, it was to help a sorority sister's father in his run for sheriff), and a devout Lutheran who practices yoga. Growing up in small-town Indiana, now living in the Kansas City metro, Kim is a conservative Midwestern gal whose heart is also in the Seattle area, where her eldest daughter, son-in-law, and grandson live. Kim is a working speech pathologist who left school system employment behind to subcontract to an agency, and has never looked back. She describes her conservatism as falling in the mold of Russell Kirk's Ten Conservative Principles. Don't know what they are? Google them!

  • Ron Greiff says:

    The entire Republican establishment is actively working to stop Trump. The entire Democratic establishment is working to help Clinton. Assuming Trump is nominated, those of you that are anti-Trump will have a decision to make. You can vote for someone that you are not sure about (and hope for the best) or you can vote for someone that you are sure about (and you know exactly what you will get).

  • Rick Caird says:

    I am not a Trump supporter, but I seem to spend a lot of time debunking nonsense like this. Of course, Hillary has more “votes” than Trump. She is only running against one candidate in Sanders while Trump has had to split the votes with a number of other candidates. The fact he is only a million “votes” behind Hillary is actually a positive.

    Second, Hillary has not been hit by Sanders. Sanders has been pathetically kind to Hillary while Trump has eliminated Bill Clinton and the “war on women” and, now, with the barking dog ad, started hitting her where it hurts. Nobody is hitting her yet on email, Benghazi, selling the State Department for Clinton Foundation donations, and loss of confidential documents due to a private server and using her aides to get classified documents onto unclassified systems.

    Third , 39% said they would “they would consider supporting a third-party candidate “, but consider is not support. That is basically a useless number until there is an actual third party candidate to compare with. 39% may prefer “nobody” to Trump, but that is not what we will end up with.

    In this case, Trump is right. The Journal is publishing nonsense and calling an editorial so it does not have to stand up to scrutiny.

  • Henry Jones says:

    So, the GOP goes to a contested convention with Trump ahead in delegates and the Elites bend/modify rules and decide Cruz is the nominee.

    Will Cruz accept the nomination from the Elites he has been bashing for all these years or will he support the voters which he has supported all these years and tell the Elites to stick it?

    Gonna tell us a lot about the man who some folks believe is our savior.

    IMHO if he accepts that type of nomination he becomes one of them and we are back to square one again as he can not win a General Election under those circumstances. GOP voters will stay home on election day by the millions.

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