In a twist of remarkable clarity, MNBC’s Chris Matthews declares “There’s so many things moving in Trump’s direction…” and concedes that Trump has a good shot at winning re-election in 2020. Let’s look at three (from many) examples of why Matthews finally gets it right about a Trump 2020 win.

USMCA, a Campaign Promise Fulfilled

During an exchange on MSNBC, Chris Mathews stated, “I’ve talked to somebody about Pennsylvania who knows a lot about Pennsylvania … registration is going through the roof up there with Republicans,”

Hmmm… could it be related to manufacturing jobs and steel? Is there something going on with… Oh, yeah the USMCA agreement.

Finally, a Trade Agreement With Teeth

Some outlets are calling the USMCA the “new NAFTA”, and implying that it’s really no different from the previous versions, and that the revisions are seemingly insignificant. But they are significant in their potential to cause a ripple effect. From the NYT overview, two automobile manufacturing provisions stand out.

To avoid automobile tariffs, 75 percent of the parts for a vehicle “assembled in Mexico” must come from the USA, Canada, or Mexico. Additionally, the pact requires North American steel to comprise 70 percent of the vehicles steel and aluminum parts. The steel must originate, be melted and poured, within North America.

This reduces the amount of imported steel, and car parts manufactured in Asia and Germany.

The Rust Belt states carry much needed Electoral College votes. The potential for the return of manufacturing jobs is a huge win for those states. And their unions.

The provision with most potential for great long term impact is the mandated wage minimum in Mexico. The NYT writes,

For the first time, the new agreement also mandates that 40 to 45 percent of the parts for any tariff-free vehicle must come from a so-called high-wage factory. Those factories must pay a minimum of $16 an hour in average salaries for production workers. That’s about triple the average wage in a Mexican factory right now, and administration officials hope the provision will either force automakers to buy more supplies from Canada or the United States or cause wages in Mexico to rise.”

This provision may have a positive impact for the USA’s problem with illegal immigration. Higher wages in Mexico will keep citizens in their own country, and that will create secondary markets for lower skilled workers from Central and South America. As the wages increase in Mexico for native workers, they will have more discretionary income for the goods and services provided by the migrants who would otherwise travel to the USA. Increased wages will create a higher demand for government stability, safety, and better community services. The government of Mexico will be forced to support those demands, or risk losing a valuable industry. Two of the most common reasons cited for immigration are economics and safety. If this provision can address them, it’s a win beyond a trade agreement.

It’s the Economy, Stupid

Economist Stephen Moore write in Fox Business,

Unemployment is down, and the labor force participation rate is finally starting to grow again, albeit still slower than needed. Some 2.3 million more people have entered the workforce under Trump. Part of the rise in the workforce is undoubtedly due to the steady increase in wages, which attracts workers to come off the sideline.”

He continues, “on a scale of 1-10, it’s an 11.”

Who knew that a debate tagline between George HW Bush and Bill Clinton would have such a lasting impact.

Newsweek Contributing Editor, Peter Roff surmises,

Here’s the reality. By most traditional measures, the economy is stronger than it’s been in over three decades, especially where job creation is concerned. Trump’s policy of tax relief and deregulation—the president likes to brag his administration has eliminated more than a dozen regulations for each new one it has imposed—has led to the creation of the three most important things in U.S. politics: jobs, jobs and more jobs.”

In addition to the job and wage growth, the tax cuts had real impact on working families. Something that even left leaning groups had to admit. From the NYT,

Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a left-leaning think tank that was sharply critical of the law. In a December 2017 analysis, it found that every income group in every state would pay less on average under the law in 2019.”

Oh, dang. Higher wages, lower taxes, and record low unemployment.

Finally, The Truth of the Matter

The Democrats have boring and uninspiring candidates. Matthews speculates, “Maybe they don’t have a candidate that thrills them … That could be it — thrills them like Hillary did for a lot of people, like Barack Obama certainly did. But maybe that’s it. Nobody’s thrilling them.”

Ya think?

When a party that boasts about diversity proffers forth front runners who are all old, rich, and white. Something is broken in the system. At least the GOP has a person of color as their candidate. Who cares that the color is orange! He’s rocking it right now. But, let’s get back to the diversity of the Democrats running for POTUS 2020.

Nobody thrills them…. Whatever do you mean they aren’t enthralled with a tiny Trump knock-off who is self funding his campaign, but won’t let the citizens of New York buy a “Big Gulp”? Michael Bloomberg, sorry he’s a man of the people now. Mike Bloomberg’s campaign slogan should read, “I wasn’t invited to your party, so I’m going to pretend I didn’t want to go… But I’m just outside the door if you change your mind.”

He’s polling at half of what third place Warren is carrying for support. Real Clear Politics has him at 7.8%. In fact, the only reason I included him was because he keeps looking in from the outside and I felt bad. Go home Mike, this is getting awkward.

The Top Three

Still white, still boring, still old. Biden, Sanders, and Warren. Let’s start with Elizabeth… How boring is your candidacy when the family pet can replace you on the campaign trail?

Yes, folks, Warren has been replaced by a Golden Retriever. Nothing boosts numbers like the family pet replacing you on the campaign trail! VG Kim Hirsch covers it here.  At least one member of the Warren tribe is doing something useful. Liz is stuck in the impeachment trial passing notes to the House Managers. Lucky Dog!!

Now, Bernie! Our favorite Socialist! I’m kidding, my favorite Socialists are all dead. Thank goodness, because we know how their leadership works out! Sanders is doing remarkably well for someone who should be hosting a Saturday afternoon local cable show. The most exciting thing about Sanders campaign are his surrogates. The Bernie Bros are the stuff of internet memes. But similar to Animal Farm’s “Squealer”, these knuckleheads parrot the Uncle Bernie tripe while enjoying a life created through capitalism. Don’t believe what they do, just what they repeat.

And Finally…..

The man of the hour. The one who can only lose the election if there’s an opposition candidate!! Joe Biden. If anyone is thanking the Gods of Impeachment fiasco, it’s Joe Biden. This drama has locked up his competition until the process is resolved. Closing on Iowa, this is really good news for Joe. Even he can out stump Warren’s dog, and if pictures show up of him rubbing the dog, it’s normal behavior.

In fact, this advantage is so good for Joe, I’d think it was planned by the Democrat National Party. But we all know they would never try to steal a nomination from another candidate. Especially someone as popular as Bernie Sanders. If the Senate ever agrees to witnesses, and Joe makes the cut, expect his lawyers to stall as long as possible. This impeachment trial is working in his favor. Not to win the election, but certainly to hold his position ahead of a kooky TV host and a dog.

Chris Matthews is annoying, and often a blowhard. But in this case, he’s not wrong. Trump 2020 is looking like a solid possibility.

Featured Image: Official Photo Donald J. Trump President  License: Public Domain Image Cropped: 400×400