Will the midterms create a giant red tidal wave or a tiny red ripple? Polls schmolls, do they mean anything? With the exception of Alabama, Colorado, New York, and maybe Florida, every other Senate race is nearly neck-and-neck. Even Pennsylvania.

Donna Brazile writes today,

Despite many predictions that Republicans will capture control of the U.S. House and are in contention to win a Senate majority, no one knows for sure what will happen. The same goes for predictions in races for governor and other state and local contests. – MSN.com

I hate to admit this but I sadly agree with her. I’m not counting the chickens yet.

In Brazile’s article, she presents the idea that the laser-focus by the media on polls will dissuade voters to get to the ballot box if they see their candidate has a lead. For example, if one candidate has a sizable lead, then one might tend to stay home and not vote, let it ride so to speak. The same can be said about the opposite as well. If one candidate is trailing, then why go vote right?

I mean that’s just basic analyzing right there.

Still, that’s a bad idea. People, get out and vote. Period.

Etsled, CC BY-SA 4.0As I stated earlier, we have a tight race everywhere. Americans have been known not to turn out in the midterms like we do for a presidential election. This year, though, has to be different. There is way too much on the line.

From the NYTimes and only 14-hours ago, they say that Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania DEMOCRATS are edging out the Republicans and have Nevada tied.

Democrats don’t have a single good accomplishment they can show us. And yet we sit here with squeaky tight races.

Having said all of that, last night’s speech by divisive Biden has me pondering a few things.

• He spoke like he already knew the outcome of the midterms. You better accept the outcome no matter what! Pretty confident there Joey.
• Biden and his administration did not point to one single accomplishment, because they don’t have one.
• He did not speak on how he was going to fix the economy because he doesn’t think it’s broken.
• The only thing he spoke on regarding violence was the “Where’s Nancy,” nonsense.

I think Rand Paul, Steve Scalise, Brett Kavanaugh, Lee Zeldin might have a thing or two so say about violent attacks.

And let’s be clear about who really started the election denier prattle – Hillary and Stacey.

Do polls matter?

Mark Penn has a great piece (with predictions) over on FoxNews.com

The Democrats gave up on confronting the issues other than abortion and instead had a strategy rolled out by the president himself to paint the opposition with the broad brush of “threat to democracy.” – Fox News

First of all, this…

#WeAreNotADemocracy pic.twitter.com/d6gl2WMgFr

— Amie Whatserface (@AmieWohrer) November 3, 2022

 

Second of all, is this why the polls are so tight right now? Democrats can’t list a single good accomplishment so they bring out the Republican Bad strategy? Are people buying it? It seems so.

FiveThirtyEight has an interesting read today – Republicans Are Just a Normal Polling Error Away From a Landslide – Or Wiping Out.

Historically, polls have been equally likely to underestimate Republicans or Democrats. So it’s also possible that pollsters have fixed the problems that plagued them in 2016 and 2020 — maybe even overcorrected for them — and that the current polls are too good for the GOP. In other words, a wide range of scenarios is possible in this election: everything from a Republican landslide to a world where Democrats hold the House and gain seats in the Senate. – Nathaniel Rakich

It’s a lot of double talk sprinkled with doubt but I still think it’s a fair statement or analysis. Certainly, it keeps me from being all confident in a huge red tidal wave.

I wish I could talk in that Kellyanne Conway-confident-speak she has when she used to talk about Trump. Instead I’ll be sitting at home watching the results come in with a pint of Breyers, hoping and praying.

Feature Image: DonkeyHotey/edited/CC-BY 2.0