This has been a wild weekend for those who were watching the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

While this isn’t nearly as dramatic as the collapse of Afghanistan, it may end up having a similar result. To sum up what happened in a very “too long; didn’t read” fashion: the Assad dictatorship, which has passed from father to son for 50 years, has been propped up by Iran and Russia. With both countries bogged down in wars (Russia by invading Ukraine, Iran by funding Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis), this left them unable to support Bashar al-Assad in Syria as rebel forces marched on Damascus. The civil war in Syria has been ongoing for years now (remember Obama’s red line?), and Assad is a terrible person. While one can cheer that he is out of power (and now receiving asylum in Moscow), we should not be under any illusions about these “rebels.” These are NOT good guys, despite how they might be trying to present themselves, thanks to the terror-friendly Associated Press.

Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the militant leader whose stunning insurgency toppled Syria’s President Bashar Assad, has spent years working to remake his public image, renouncing longtime ties to al-Qaida and depicting himself as a champion of pluralism and tolerance. As he entered Damascus behind his victorious fighters Sunday, he even dropped his nom de guerre and referred to himself with his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa.

Hours after Damascus’ capture, the 42-year-old al-Sharaa made his first appearance in the city’s landmark Umayyad Mosque, declaring Assad’s fall “a victory for the Islamic nation.” A senior rebel commander, Anas Salkhadi, appeared on state TV to declare, “Our message to all the sects of Syria, is that we tell them that Syria is for everyone,”

Al-Sharaa, who has been labeled a terrorist by the United States, and his insurgent force, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS – many of whose fighters are jihadis — now stand to be a major player.

Throughout his rise through extremist ranks, al-Sharaa was only known by the jihadi nickname he adopted, Abu Mohammed al-Golani. His ties to al-Qaida stretch back to 2003, when he joined insurgents battling U.S. troops in Iraq. The Syrian native was detained by the U.S. military but remained in Iraq. During that time, al-Qaida usurped like-minded groups and formed the extremist Islamic State of Iraq, led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

In 2011, a popular uprising in Syria against Assad triggered a brutal government crackdown and led to all-out war. Al-Golani’s prominence grew when al-Baghdadi sent him to Syria to establish a branch of al-Qaida called the Nusra Front. The United States labeled the new group as a terrorist organization. That designation still remains in place and the U.S. government has put a $10 million bounty on him.

As Syria’s civil war intensified in 2013, so did al-Golani’s ambitions. He defied al-Baghdadi’s calls to dissolve the Nusra Front and merge it with al-Qaida’s operation in Iraq, to form the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS.

Al-Golani nonetheless pledged his allegiance to al-Qaida, which later disassociated itself from ISIS. The Nusra Front battled ISIS and eliminated much of its competition among the Syrian armed opposition to Assad.

In his first interview in 2014, al-Golani kept his face covered, telling a reporter for Qatari network Al-Jazeera that he rejected political talks in Geneva to end the conflict. He said his goal was to see Syria ruled under Islamic law and made clear that there was no room for the country’s Alawite, Shiite, Druze and Christian minorities.

Al-Sharaa, as I suppose we will now call him, insists that he has cut all ties with al Qaeda and plans to be moderate, in light of the religious and ethnic diversity in Syria. We heard similar things from the Taliban when they swept back into power, too, and we’ve all seen how that has gone. This isn’t to say, though, that everything al-Sharaa and his group has done is terrible – they have opened up some pretty terrible prisons and freed political prisoners of the Assad regime.

There are obviously some actual criminals at these prisons but there are also a lot of dissidents that disappeared years ago. No one has known where they were or even whether they were alive during that time. https://t.co/nhQznxpfCE

— AG (@AGHamilton29) December 8, 2024

The real question is, what happens now? It’s clear what Joe Biden, who apparently is still president for another six weeks, wants to do – or, to put it more bluntly, what the people who write the words he reads on the teleprompter want him to do.

Speaking at the White House in his first substantive comments since President Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell in the face of an astonishingly swift rebel offensive, Biden also announced the US had conducted dozens of airstrikes in Syria as it remains committed to preventing the resurgence of ISIS.

“It’s a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country,” Biden said from the Roosevelt Room. “It’s also a moment of risk and uncertainty. As we all turn to the question of what comes next, the United States will work with our partners and the stakeholders in Syria to help them seize an opportunity to manage the risk.”

Biden vowed to support Syria’s neighbors during the transition and to protect US personnel in their continued mission against ISIS. The president said he plans to speak with his counterparts in the area “in the coming days” and that US officials will deploy to the region.

The US is prioritizing efforts to prevent the resurgence of ISIS, Biden said, adding that he is “clear-eyed about the fact that ISIS will try to take advantage of any vacuum to reestablish its capability to create a safe haven,” but starkly saying, “We will not let that happen.”

Biden noted those efforts include securing detention facilities where ISIS fighters are being held as prisoners, as well as “precision strikes” in Syria targeting ISIS.

As part of that effort, US forces on Sunday conducted dozens of airstrikes, striking more than 75 ISIS targets using Air Force assets including B-52 bombers, F-15 fighter jets and A-10 aircraft, according to US Central Command.

Ah yes, the Biden administration’s solution to everything is to just throw money at it. That has worked out GREAT for Ukraine and built a stupid pier that fell apart in Gaza and got an American serviceman killed. At this point, with six weeks to go, why can’t someone cut up the Biden White House credit card?

Can we please not send money to Syria until we know who's running that place? https://t.co/l2mwPzfMuY

— Fusilli Spock (@awstar11) December 8, 2024

The problem is that even though Donald Trump, the once and future president, is already being treated like the current head of state, he isn’t in the Oval Office just yet. And while his philosophy of “THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT” and a follow up commentary about Russia’s involvement in Syria and need to end the war in Ukraine resonates with the electorate, the fact of the matter is that the Biden administration just conducted airstrikes in Syria. Now, those might be legitimate targets, but the need to bomb something has NEVER backfired on the Biden administration before, right?

Unfortunately, the impulse to Do Something™ runs deep in the Republican establishment.

BREAKING: Senator Lindsey Graham demands heightened US intervention in Syria

"I appreciate the air strikes against ISIS targets in Syria, but it will not be enough."

"If Turkey takes military action against Kurdish forces in Syria, it will jeopardize America’s interests… pic.twitter.com/10AhL3E7sT

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) December 9, 2024

Graham’s full statement reads:

I appreciate the air strikes against ISIS targets in Syria, but it will not be enough. We have to ensure that the roughly 50,000 ISIS prisoners in northeastern Syria — being primarily held by Kurdish forces — are not released.

We should not allow the Kurdish forces — who helped us destroy ISIS on President Trump’s watch — to be threatened by Turkey or the radical Islamists who have taken over Syria.

Turkey has legitimate concerns regarding different groups that reside in northeastern Syria. But if there is conflict between Turkey and the Syrian Democratic Forces or Turkey attacks Kurdish forces, it will set in motion an ISIS jailbreak, which would be a nightmare for America.

The last time ISIS was in charge, thousands of Europeans and Americans were killed by ISIS plots that originated in Syria.

Furthermore, the reemergence of ISIS creates chaos throughout the region, which is going to lead to higher gas prices for us at home.

Turkey deserves to have a demilitarized buffer zone between northeastern Syria and Turkey to protect Turkish interests. However, if Turkey takes military action against Kurdish forces in Syria, it will jeopardize America’s interests dramatically.

In the past I have drafted sanctions targeting Turkey if they engage in military operations against the Kurdish forces who helped President Trump destroy ISIS. I stand ready to do this again in a bipartisan way.

While Graham isn’t explicitly calling for more boots on the ground – remember, we still have American servicemembers present in Syria – it’s hard to see how his objectives get accomplished without a LOT more intervention. And we have completely new leadership walking into the State Department in just another six weeks – is this something the incoming Trump administration wants to jump right into?

Honestly, the smartest play right off the bat might be a political one. Turkey is clearly angling to benefit from the collapse of the Assad regime, perhaps by making aggressive moves into Syria itself. Turkey is now run like an Islamist dictatorship under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and yet they are technically a NATO ally. At this point, shouldn’t their NATO membership be in jeopardy? Erdogan doesn’t seem to care about it, so put Turkey on a NATO suspension. Russia isn’t exactly in a position to offer them much more than a pat on the head if NATO sits them on the time-out chair. Lindsey Graham seems far too ready to be concilatory to Turkey, and while there is no reason to trust al-Sharaa and his rebels, that doesn’t mean that Erdogan has anyone’s interests but his own at heart.

At this point, waiting and seeing what happens next in Syria is the most pragmatic move – while definitely making sure that our troops on the ground there are safe (and perhaps safely getting out of there). The entire dynamic has shifted with Assad’s departure, and it’s going to be a while before the dust settles and we get a clearer picture of what happens now. But anyone who anticipates Syria turning into a happy little democracy (looking at YOU, Antony Blinken) is a fool. And our only hope right now is that Joe Biden doesn’t do something incredibly foolish and gobsmackingly stupid regarding Syria right at the end of his lame duck administration.

Featured image via Engin Akyurt on Pexels, cropped, Pexels license