The path forward is broad and easy for Donald Trump at the moment, and with Iowa in the rearview mirror, and a solid victory in New Hampshire tonight, there seems to be little left for Nikki Haley to do.

With only two competitive candidates left in the race after Ron DeSantis bowed out on Sunday, the only question was “how will the vote split?” Haley was betting big on making a good showing in New Hampshire in order to give her momentum going into her home state of South Carolina (she will be skipping Nevada entirely). However, Trump was easily breaking 50% of the vote again.

DDHQ Race Update (est. 29% in): NH President Republican Primary

Donald J. Trump (R): 57,395
(54.6%)
Nikki Haley (R): 47,056
(44.8%)
Ron DeSantis (R): 554
(0.5%)
Other (R): 141
(0.1%)

Follow more results here: https://t.co/QoS6gQwq7i

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) January 24, 2024

Depending on when the vote totals look like when the counting of ballots is over, Trump could beat Haley by a solid ten points in New Hampshire. Now the question becomes, post-New Hampshire, is there any path forward for Nikki Haley? Or has she hit the ceiling in votes? Considering where her votes were coming from, she may very well have.

CNN's exit polls show that 70% of Nikki Haley voters are NOT registered Republicans. pic.twitter.com/TCq5TH2CAL

— Nicholas Fondacaro (@NickFondacaro) January 24, 2024

There is no way that Haley will draw that many “independents” in South Carolina – especially considering that New Hampshire didn’t even have Joe Biden on the ballot for Democrats, resulting in a write-in campaign that may have seen more crossover than the exit polls indicate. Is she waiting for a “black swan event” that would knock Trump out of the race? Does she think she can pull off an upset in South Carolina?

For her part, Nikki Haley is pushing on.

But despite the long and historic odds against her, a defiant Haley vowed Tuesday to stay in the race.

“New Hampshire is first in the nation, it is not the last in the nation,” she said. “This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go.”

Fellow Republicans who have run for president say Haley is fooling herself.

“The general election begins today,” said Newt Gingrich, a former House Speaker who ran for president in 2012 and won South Carolina before he dropped out. “No one has won both Iowa and New Hampshire before and not been the nominee. And no one from our party has lost both those states and won the nomination.”

And Donald Trump is noticing that Haley is sticking around.

TRUMP: “She’s doing a speech like she won. She didn’t win. She LOST.” pic.twitter.com/Noz3YW0WZE

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) January 24, 2024

Notice who is standing behind Donald Trump on stage in New Hampshire? That would be South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, who has already endorsed Trump over Haley.

With a second-place finish in New Hampshire, and with the vote not nearly as tight as the Haley campaign would have wanted, South Carolina becomes Nikki Haley’s last stand. She either has to win big over Trump, or go home. And seeing that FiveThirtyEight currently puts Trump almost 40 points ahead of Haley, that seems highly unlikely. So Haley can stay in the race, but the field has pretty much already consolidated around Donald Trump, and his vote totals will be unaffected by Haley’s continued presence in the primary.

The South Carolina primary is scheduled for February 24th, just a month from now. Unless something dramatic in the realm of the “unknown unknowns” happens, this Republican primary is going to be over well before Super Tuesday on March 5th.

Featured image: original Victory Girls art by Darleen Click