Eric Swalwell might be feeling like he’s battling his way to the top of the Democratic pack in the race for governor. But is he?

On Sunday evening, Swalwell received the endorsement of the California Teachers Association, something which he and every other Democrat in the race had been waiting for.

Teachers are the backbone of our communities and the co-authors of our kids’ lives. I’m honored to have the endorsement of the California Teachers Association — 310,000 strong.

Together we’ll build a California that values educators — not just in words, but in action. pic.twitter.com/SjwwpHpRX1

— Eric Swalwell (@ericswalwell) March 30, 2026

This endorsement does put Swalwell in a better position in a crowded field, considering his other labor union endorsements. But when I say crowded field, I mean CROWDED FIELD. There are currently eight Democrats that are registering in the polls – too many fish in an increasingly small pond. And thanks to California’s top two primary system – where the top two vote winners advance, regardless of party – this now puts California Democrats in an increasingly awkward position.

Berkeley IGS poll | 3/9-3/14 RV

California Governor jungle primary 2026 (top two vote getters advance to November)

🟥Steve Hilton 17%
🟥Chad Bianco 16%
🟦Eric Swalwell 13%
🟦Katie Porter 13%
🟦Tom Steyer 10%
🟦Xavier Becerra 5%
🟦Antonio Villaraigosa 4%
🟦Matt Mahan 4%
🟦Betty…

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) March 18, 2026

Your eyes do not deceive you. The two leading vote getters are Republicans by mere single digits. The Democrats are led by Swalwell, but not by much. What happened here? Well, the filing deadline was March 6th, so the ballot is all set. There is no “big name” that cleared the field, like Kamala Harris might have done if she had chosen to run. And now all those Democrats are going to be on the ballot, with no clear leader.

Part of the reason that two Republicans are leading in the polls is that eight Democrats are splitting the vote.

The problem is that it’s too late to have that conversation. All the lowest-polling candidates are already on the ballot. There is no top California Democrat with the juice and the desire to have those tough talks. Complicating matters is that it’s politically unpalatable for a top white Democratic leader to ask the candidates of color, all of whom are polling poorly, to quit when so many party members are people of color. Besides, it’s unlikely the candidates would heed those requests anyway.

And if you asked the candidates who should drop out, their fingers would be pointed at their opponents, not themselves. Apparently the California Democrat Party chair has zero clout, and Gavin Newsom is too chicken to use whatever influence he might have.

The reason that leading party figures, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, Pelosi and others, haven’t publicly backed a candidate or strong-armed anyone to leave is “because nobody knows who can win,” said former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown, who is close to both. Voters haven’t coalesced around any Democrat.

So now what? Two Republicans are leading the polls roughly a month before voters receive their ballots, and there’s a 19% chance that two Republicans will advance from the June 2 primary to the general election, according to an online tool developed by political data expert Paul Mitchell that runs thousands of simulations of the race. The top two finishers in the primary, regardless of party affiliation, advance.

Newsom, with a 55% approval rating among likely voters, according to a March survey by the Public Policy Institute of California, is the most likely person to tap some candidates on the shoulder and ask them to bow out. “But he’d have to do it quietly. He wouldn’t have to do it publicly,” said former California Sen. Barbara Boxer.

But, as Brown pointed out, Newsom “is not motivated. Because in a year when he says, ‘Help me (run for president),’ those people will say, ‘Remember when you buried me?’” Newsom’s likely route to the Democratic presidential nomination will be to appeal to the base of the party, which includes many Black and brown voters, Brown said. Muscling out candidates of color would hurt him in achieving his next goal.

Rusty Hicks, the California Democratic Party chairman, has unsuccessfully tried to winnow the field two different ways. Days before the deadline to file to be on the ballot, Hicks wrote an open letter telling candidates: “It is imperative that every candidate honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign.” Only one candidate, former Assembly Member Ian Calderon, heeded Hicks’ imperative. Days later, Hicks unveiled a plan to conduct extensive polling and publish the results as a way to publicly shame candidates out of the race. But after the first round of polling was released last week, candidates dug in and vowed to continue.

The chairman has no juice.

In other words, this is going to be a Democrat primary bloodbath. Get the popcorn.

Eliminating the lower-polling candidates won’t solve the Democrats’ problem mathematically, said Lorena Gonzalez, president of the 2.3 million-member California Labor Federation, which has jointly endorsed former Rep. Katie Porter, environmental activist Tom Steyer, Rep. Eric Swalwell and Villaraigosa. Even if they left, she said it would be hard to predict where their voters would migrate. They might not coalesce around one candidate.

Instead of pressuring low-polling candidates to quit, Gonzalez said, “the bigger kind of push needs to be with those who are at the top to ensure that they’re pushing an agenda that can light people on fire. It’s not so much that people have to drop out, but the people at the top, who are sitting at 10%, really need to get out there and make their case.”

Is there a Democrat that has “gotten out there and made their case”? Not really, because for all that California is a blue state, all the Democrats in the race are not promising to do anything differently than what Gavin Newsom is currently doing. The candidate they are running against is not each other, but Donald Trump. And because they are all running against Trump, that makes Swalwell, Porter, Becerra, Steyer, Villaraigosa and all the others essentially interchangeable. And when no one stands out, then no one can gain a majority of the votes.

This is why Swalwell is making a big deal about this endorsement, and the fact that the FBI is apparently doing a review of his “relationship” with a certain Chinese spy.

When they lead with “More than a decade ago,” it’s always the same fraudulent misdirection, as if the mere passage of time somehow makes something bad into something acceptable.

— Hans Mahncke (@HansMahncke) March 28, 2026

And of course, this gives Swalwell the chance to rail against the Bad Orange Man.

Donald Trump and Kash Patel do not get to pick the next governor. Californians do. pic.twitter.com/zhWh3CXvnF

— Eric Swalwell (@ericswalwell) March 28, 2026

Oh please. If a Republican candidate carried the kind of baggage that Swalwell does, he would be the first to weaponize it. And yes, as the primary date gets closer, the other Democrats in the race will be sharpening their proverbial knives to target Swalwell if he starts to pull away with a lead. Though Katie Porter would prefer to throw food at him instead, and then berate a staffer for the hell of it.

It would be deliciously ironic if, in a midterm election where Democrats are expecting to clean up nationally, they lost the California gubernatorial race because all the Democrats in the race are ideologically identical. Obviously Eric Swalwell is hoping to raise his profile with enough endorsements – which leads to campaign donations – to make a difference. However, the voters of California will be telling us in just over two months what they think about the crowded ballot and all the Democrats who want their turn to be right now.

Featured image: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons/edited in Canva Pro