It is still very early in the presidential primary cycle, so there are no guarantees. But if the nomination was held today, Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee in a walk-off.

That being stipulated, and with the former president looking to pull off the Grover Cleveland hat trick of being elected to non-consecutive presidential terms, he will need a vice presidential candidate on the ticket. In 2016, Donald Trump chose Mike Pence to shore up his conservative bona fides, especially appealing to the pro-life conservatives. Remember, at that time, Trump was a fairly unknown quantity when it came to how he would actually govern as president. Pence, with his long record of holding elected office, gave the ticket stability. The two men apparently had a decent working relationship throughout the Trump administration, and it wasn’t until the end when it all fell apart.

Obviously, Mike Pence is not an option for vice president this time around. Been there, done that, got the T-shirt, tried running for president himself, no joy.

This leaves the position of vice president wide open to whomever Trump chooses. But who would want the job? As everyone knows, Donald Trump is not exactly the easiest boss in the world, and the position of vice president this time around is a high-risk, high-reward gamble. Any vice president of Donald Trump’s would automatically have presidential consideration, but the job comes with its own political dangers.

Still, as well as Trump has performed and is performing now, he is tapping only a part of his potential support. According to 2020 exit polling, Trump lost 6 percent of Republicans. He also lost 15 percent of conservatives, 36 percent of moderates and 49 percent of independents.

The reason is no mystery: Trump’s baggage. His impressive electoral and polling results are coming despite the public’s perception of him. According to Real Clear Politics’s average of national favorability ratings, Trump’s net rating is minus 15.2 percent. His average favorability rating is just 40.3 percent — well below his 47.2 percent average in head-to-head matchups with Biden.

In short, Trump has left and continues to leave a lot of votes on the table. A lot of votes that Trump’s running mate could have access to.

While Trump could not tap conservative populism’s full potential, a more favorably viewed Republican could.

There are other reasons that being the caboose on the Trump train would be attractive. Topping it: Should Trump win, his vice president will have to wait only four years to cash in the chits earned. Because Trump has already served one term as president, he constitutionally cannot serve another if elected again. That means his vice president could spend four years in the administration preparing to run immediately — and instantly being treated as 2028’s frontrunner the whole time.

But 2028 consideration has two obstacles. First, winning in 2024 is required. As I said at the outset, nothing is set in stone yet. And if Trump lost to the corpse of Joe Biden, then it would end up being a net negative to the running mate. Second, even after winning the 2024 election, governing is required. Donald Trump does not have the reputation of being “easy” to work with. He says he demands “loyalty” but what he really wants is fealty. That alleged Trump loyalty only ever runs one way – toward him. Any running mate he chooses is going to have to be either a Trump true believer, or willing to play one convincingly for the cameras.

But who would take the risk and want the job? Let’s look at the current and past primary field, and then consider other outlier options.

First, in the current batch of presidential primary candidates, either Vivek Ramaswamy or Nikki Haley could be willing to take the risk for the reward. I think it’s unlikely that Vivek does, because I think he wants a media platform more than political office, even though Trump might be interested in sounding him out.

Haley, who already served in the previous Trump administration, left on good terms at the time, even though she has tried to make space between herself and her former boss, and probably hasn’t pissed off Trump enough during her presidential campaign – yet – to get her kicked off a potential VP list.

What about a second-tier primary candidate, like Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchison, or Tim Scott? Picking either Burgum or Hutchison would appeal to their vanity, but they wouldn’t bring anything to the table for Trump. Tim Scott, on the other hand, would be an intriguing choice – mostly because his personality is so drastically different than Trump’s. They could easily find common ground on political issues, and Scott has not proved to be enough of a threat to Trump to draw his ire. In fact, when asked, Trump left the door open for Scott (even though Scott diplomatically turned it down at the time because he was actively running). The risk-reward incentive structure would also work for Scott, because if a Trump-Scott ticket lost, then he would still have his seat in the Senate (he just won reelection in 2022).

And then there’s the outliers. Kari Lake, who is currently running for the Senate in Arizona, would probably jump at the opportunity. She is in the “true believer” category, but she may not bring enough to the table to help Trump win an election. Governor Kristi Noem, who was riding high until her personal life imploded in spectacular fashion (she denies the allegations, but has largely disappeared off the national stage), was once under consideration. Trump would be willing to overlook personal indiscretions, but there would have to be enough of a net benefit to having Noem on the ticket to do so. And if Trump picks Marjorie Taylor Greene, then I don’t think he can be considered a serious presidential candidate. There’s just no up side for Trump in choosing her.

There’s still a lot of time for candidates to enter or leave the vice presidential consideration sweepstakes. The first votes in the primary itself haven’t even been casted yet. The poll numbers are baked in for Trump, who despite his legal cases, is a known quantity now. Joe Biden is also a known quantity, and he is a terrible president. The polls are tilting in Trump’s favor. Choosing a vice president that will pull in more votes could seal the deal. In 2016, Mike Pence was an asset to the ticket. Donald Trump is going to have to really consider who could be an asset now – and then hope that his chosen candidate feels the same way.

Featured image: original Victory Girls art by Darleen Click