At the moment, according to the polls, Zohran Mamdani is the overwhelming favorite to win the race for mayor in New York City – unless, perhaps, President Trump steps in.

The circumstances that the candidates not named Zohran Mamdani face are getting bleaker by the day. Current Mayor Eric Adams is absolutely done in the race. His poll numbers are cooked, and he has now been denied up to $3 million in matching campaign funds from the Campaign Finance Board – while other candidates are getting the funding.

The City Campaign Finance Board hinted the mayor, who is running as an independent in the November election, may never see a dime as it believes his first campaign for City Hall in 2021 may have violated the law.

“The board determined Mayor Adams campaign has failed to demonstrate eligibility for public funds payments at this time, on two grounds. One, failure to provide requested information and two, reason to believe the campaign has violated the law with respect to the failure to provide requested information,” said Board Chair Frank Schaffer.

The board has repeatedly refused to allow Adams’ re-election bid to cash in on the city’s generous 8-to-1 matching funds program, starting in December, when it first cut the mayor off from the program.

It has cited both Adams’ since-dismissed federal indictment on bribery and corruption charges, and his team’s refusal to answer a number of outstanding demands for documentation about fundraising.

The campaign has maintained that it is up to date with the board’s requests. It expected the spigot of taxpayer cash to be turned on after securing a win in court last month, when a judge ruled Adams could not be denied funds based on the past criminal case.

“We are reviewing all legal options, including formal action to compel the release of public matching funds,” said campaign spokesperson Todd Shapiro. “We will not allow a vague and bureaucratic process to undermine the democratic right of our supporters to participate in this election.”

Even if the Adams campaign manages to get those matching funds, it is way too late for him. The indictments have been dismissed, but Adams has lost the confidence of the voters. Curtis Sliwa, the only Republican in the race, did get the matching funds, but he’s a Republican running in New York City in 2025. He managed only 27.8% in the 2021 mayoral race, and with an even more crowded election, there is no chance that he meets his previous percentage, much less beats Mamdani as a unity candidate.

That leaves sleazebag and former governor Andrew Cuomo. Many assumed that Cuomo would win the primary running away, but Mamdani pulled off the upset. Cuomo then launched a campaign as an independent, thinking that he could be the unity candidate. That hasn’t turned out as well as he had thought, as Mamdani is starting to rack up more Democrat endorsements.

Mamdani has been in the process of coalescing Democratic support behind his candidacy after his upset win in the primary in June over Cuomo. Some top Democratic leaders have withheld their endorsement for Mamdani despite him being the Democratic nominee, and polling has shown Mamdani with less support than what would normally be expected for the Democratic nominee for mayor in the heavily Democratic city.

But Mamdani’s support has been ticking up, while Cuomo’s support has been dropping. Mamdani has also picked up endorsements from New York Democrats including Reps. Jerry Nadler and Adriano Espaillat, the latter of whom backed Cuomo in the primary.

The other candidates in the race have expressed concern about the possibility of splitting the vote among them in November and allowing Mamdani to win the general election. Cuomo has suggested that the candidates should unify behind whichever candidate is in the strongest position to face Mamdani in September.

It’s clear that Cuomo wants to be that unity candidate, but neither Adams or Sliwa is prepared to drop out. Realistically, and disgustingly, Cuomo is the only possible choice that even gets close to Mamdani’s numbers.

The probability that Mamdani could be the next mayor of New York City has many groups justifiably upset. Mamdani, who has the endorsement of the United Federation of Teachers, announced that he opposes any and all charter schools within the city – even though those same charter schools largely serve minority students.

BREAKING: Zohran Mamdani says he’ll declare war on charter schools if elected mayor.

He’s vowing to block new schools — even ones serving low-income Black and Hispanic kids — and won’t let them share public buildings.

Where is the outrage? pic.twitter.com/cYDoQ25Uzi

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) August 6, 2025

Another group upset with a potential Mayor Mamdani? Business leaders. And Donald Trump once counted himself among their number. The question then becomes, would President Trump be willing to step in and endorse a candidate? And if he did, would that actually help the candidate – or hurt him? According to the New York Times, Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams may be willing to take that risk.

In recent weeks, Mr. Trump has quizzed a Republican congressman and New York businessmen about who in the crowded field of candidates, which includes Mayor Eric Adams and former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, has the best chance of beating Mr. Mamdani, the leftist front-runner.

The president has been briefed by Mark Penn, a pollster who has worked for Bill and Hillary Clinton, and Andrew Stein, a former New York City Council president and decades-long friend of Mr. Trump, on a range of polling that showed Mr. Cuomo could still be competitive as an independent candidate. Both men have pushed Mr. Cuomo as the best candidate despite his loss in the Democratic primary, including in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed. One of Mr. Penn’s firms did extensive work for a pro-Cuomo super PAC in the primary.

And in a previously undisclosed call in recent weeks, Mr. Trump spoke about the race directly with Mr. Cuomo, an old associate and foil, according to three people briefed on the call, who were not authorized to discuss it.

The possibility that Mr. Trump would somehow involve himself in New York politics could inject a new element of unpredictability into an already fractious contest. It remains far from certain how or if Mr. Trump will ultimately make his presence felt. And in recent weeks, some Republicans close to the administration have indicated that the president might simply sit it out.

But donors and allies of Mr. Adams and Mr. Cuomo have pined for weeks for the president to intervene, arguing that Mr. Trump, a lifelong New Yorker with strong views about how the city should be run, could play a role in consolidating the fractured anti-Mamdani vote behind a single opponent. This group strongly opposes Mr. Mamdani, a democratic socialist who outflanked Mr. Cuomo in the primary with a message about freezing rents and raising taxes on the rich.

Even those in favor of Mr. Trump intervening acknowledge that any public endorsement or other effort to help one of the candidates could backfire in a city where he remains unpopular overall.

“The city is still not exactly a haven for Trump supporters,” said Sid Rosenberg, a conservative talk radio host who supports Mr. Trump. “I’m not sure if it bodes well for Curtis or Andrew or Eric to get Trump’s support publicly.”

Cuomo’s spokesperson is now denying that any call took place, but Mamdani is already using Trump’s potential involvement to attack Cuomo – who is his only real competition.

Today we learned Andrew Cuomo is directly coordinating with Donald Trump, even as this President sends masked agents to rip our neighbors off the streets and guts the social services so many New Yorkers rely on.

It’s disqualifying and a betrayal of our city. pic.twitter.com/5MXXDoV9ll

— Zohran Kwame Mamdani (@ZohranKMamdani) August 6, 2025

There is a very narrow path to victory for Andrew Cuomo, but it hinges on a lot of things going his way. First, both Adams and Sliwa would have to drop out. Second, he would need to lean heavily on getting out the vote – not so easy when so many elderly New Yorkers died during COVID, but specifically, Cuomo would need the Jewish community of New York City to turn out in massive numbers for him. That is not likely to happen.

I mean, he doesn't have a chance, but his ONLY CHANCE is like 90 percent anti-Mamdani Jewish turnout

— John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) August 5, 2025

At this point, New York City seems determined to ram this Mamdani iceberg at full speed, and damn the consequences. At the moment, none of the other candidates have the momentum or the gravitas to pull together a voting coalition to stand up to Mamdani. Now, there is a little less than three months left before the election – which is an eternity in political time. Could something happen that takes the wind out of Mamdani’s political sails? Sure. But would that same something be enough to swing momentum toward a different candidate? That might be too much to ask.

Given the reaction to the Times story from both Mamdani and Cuomo, it seems safe to say that for now, President Trump should stay out of trying to influence this race. It would be ideal if New York City wasn’t governed by a communist, but if the voters want to jump off that cliff, there is not much that anyone outside the city can do, save vote with their feet and not spend tourist dollars there. President Trump, like the rest of us, will be a spectator to what comes next in New York City should Zohran Mamdani become the mayor.

Featured image: original Victory Girls art by Darleen Click