On Friday afternoon, aka Document Dump Day — when politicians release stuff they hope you don’t pay attention to — Mediaite teased an exclusive. They leaked the news that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was ditching his run for the presidency as a Democrat and would contend as an independent. A campaign insider spilled the beans on RFK Jr., claimed the website.

That made the media sit up and take notice.

The informer explained:

Bobby feels that the DNC is changing the rules to exclude his candidacy so an independent run is the only way to go.

In addition, RFK Jr is already planning attack ads against the Democratic National Committee to clear the deck for his big announcement.

Sure enough, two hours after the “leak,” Kennedy used X/Twitter to encourage Americans to Watch This Space in Philadelphia on October 9.

Save the Date, Save the Country. #Kennedy24 pic.twitter.com/rSSs7flPKa

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) September 29, 2023

“Sea change in American politics” …“a path to victory” …”I’ll share with you our path to the White House”… along with not-so-subtle images of the Capitol and “Kennedy 2024” signs — yeah, this was more a campaign ad than a Save-the-Date announcement.

Right on cue, the chattering classes began their chin wagging, like the panel on News Nation’s The Hill.

Why is RFK Jr Ditching the Democrat Party?

At first Kennedy seemed like a threat to Joe Biden. Polls in the late spring showed him garnering as much as 20 percent of Democrat support. And besides being younger and more vibrant than the doddering incumbent president, RFK Jr could also boast of the Kennedy name. He even bears a striking resemblance to his father, the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy of sainted Democrat memory.

Kennedy 1968 campaign handout for Indiana primary/Wikimedia Commons/public domain.

But that was then. By late summer his polling had fallen into the single digits as Democrats caught wind of the conspiracy theories he championed, such as his views on Covid, vaccines, or even 9/11. They went against the party playbook.

And then there were his remarks on Jews, the Chinese, and Covid that aired in July:

Covid-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.

Those words were a bridge too far for many rank-and-file Democrats. As a result, his polls plunged. For example, a recent CNN/University of New Hampshire poll found that only 9 percent of primary voters in NH view him favorably, much less support him.

So RFK Jr began making noise about leaving the Democratic Party. He also met with Angela McArdle, the chairwoman of the Libertarian Party, in July. Finally, in mid-September, realizing that Joe Biden wouldn’t debate him, Kennedy published an open letter to DNC chairman Jaime Harrison. Criticizing the party for its apparent stacking of the presidential process, he wrote:

The D.N.C. is not supposed to favor one candidate over another. 

But the party dismissed him. So now RFK Jr will be running as an independent.

What Would This Mean for Biden or Trump?

Corey Lewandowski, Donald Trump’s campaign manager in 2016 and current super-ally, predicted that RFK Jr running as an independent would be curtains for the Biden campaign.

EXCLUSIVE: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Planning Independent Run. If true the race is over for ⁦@JoeBiden⁩! Welcome back to@the WH ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ https://t.co/U6U6klq7nm

— Corey R. Lewandowski (@CLewandowski_) September 29, 2023

However, Jim Geraghty, senior political contributor for National Review — who predicted this move back in June — said not so fast. This doesn’t bode well for Trump.

But as an independent, Kennedy is a much more intriguing wild card and could play a much bigger role in the 2024 race. For starters, as an independent, Kennedy may well compete for votes on the right; Kennedy’s earned praise from Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, Steve Bannon, Mike Flynn, and Charlie Kirk. The kind of voter who likes Trump for his railing against corruption and claiming that vast conspiracies are harming Americans, and his general opposition to anything perceived as “the establishment,” may well find Kennedy an intriguing option.

Geraghty’s Colleague Noah Rothman concurs. An independent run by RFK Jr presents a conundrum for the GOP, he writes.

If Trump is the nominee, he will be compelled to spend most of his time and the GOP’s resources on his legal defense against allegations of criminal misconduct. But when he’s actually out on the trail, he’ll have to devote at least a portion of the time he would otherwise dedicate to campaigning against the incumbent Democratic president to keeping Kennedy’s share of the Republican vote down. A non-Trump Republican presidential nominee would likely encounter a similar headache, but Trump’s brand of politics aligns more closely with Kennedy’s than with anyone else’s in the GOP field.

Rothman concludes that an independent run by RFK Jr would present more of a challenge to Trump than to Biden. Not for Trump’s super loyal MAGA base, of course. But he may peel off Republicans who adhere to conspiracies and deep state machinations and yet prefer a younger, less Trumpy candidate.

At this point, however, it’s anyone’s guess. But strap on your seat belts. It’s going to be a bumpy presidential ride any way you look at it.

Featured image: “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Health Freedom Rally Times Square Oct 18” by pameladrew212 is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0. Cropped.