Accident or escalation? Either way, Poland is plenty mad, and they have every right to be.

On Tuesday night, Russian attack drones, which have been used to great effect against Ukraine, somehow magically floated over the border from Belarus to Poland, causing damage – but fortunately, no casualties.

The overnight incursion stretched across seven hours, beginning around 11:30 p.m. Tuesday and ending just after dawn, according to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Drone parts were detected at nine locations deep inside Poland, including one that ripped the roof off a house in the Lublin region. No casualties were reported.

For the first time in the conflict, several of the drones appeared to come directly from Belarus, Tusk said. The drones forced the temporary closure of parts of Poland’s airspace and suspended flights at Warsaw’s international airport.

Poland immediately jumped into action, and scrambled fighters to intercept and shoot down the drones – with NATO help.

Polish and NATO-allied aircraft — including Dutch F-35 fighter jets — took to the skies late Wednesday to “help ensure safety in Polish skies” from the drones that crossed into its airspace during a wave of Russian attacks in western Ukraine.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament that 19 objects entered the country’s airspace overnight, with several shot down, in what the military called an “unprecedented” threat.

So, what exactly was the intention behind the drone swarm invading undisputed Polish airspace? Belarus says they “lost” the drones, but Russia blamed Poland for… noticing?

Belarus, a close Russian ally that borders both Poland and Ukraine, said it tracked drones that had “lost their course” because of jamming.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry followed up by accusing Warsaw of attempting to escalate tensions between Moscow and Europe linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Rememeber, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is a huge Cold War Soviet fanboy – and Poland was once a Soviet satellite state. Is Russia embarassed that this happened, or is their defensiveness due to the fact that this looks like a test run? It probably doesn’t matter, because Poland isn’t in the mood for excuses.

Russia labeled the accusations “groundless” and said it did not plan to attack any targets in Poland.

The Russian Defense Ministry said it had attacked the “military-industrial complex of Ukraine” in a “large-scale strike” but that “there were no targets envisioned for destruction on the Polish territory,” pointing to the flight range of the drones it said it used against western Ukraine.

It said it was “ready to hold consultations with the Polish Ministry of Defense on this matter.”

Polish Foreign minister Radosław Sikorski said there was no doubt the incursion was intentional, calling the violation an unprecedented attack on NATO and the European Union.

“In this case there were 19 breaches, and it simply defies imagination that it could be accidental,” he told reporters.

Poland then invoked Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which is not nearly as ominous as it sounds. Basically, they’re calling for a meeting.

Article 4, the shortest of the NATO treaty’s 14 articles, states that: “The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.”

Bob Deen, an analyst at the Clingendael think tank in The Hague, said the article is “designed to promote better coordination and understanding within the alliance on external threats. It gives all allies the opportunity to urgently put certain threats or developments on the agenda of the North Atlantic Council.”

This does not mean, however, that Article 5 (the mutual defense part of the treaty) will also be invoked. An Article 4 meeting could result in nothing but Poland airing its grievances against Russia for this, and thanking the allies who scrambled to help shoot the drones down.

What happens now is anyone’s guess. NATO will very much be on Poland’s side, but is unlikely to look to escalate anything without additional provocation. Russia doesn’t look to be offering any apologies. The only “winner” in this (if there can be one) is Ukraine, because as Russia gets more aggressive, they end up with more support.

Featured image: Polish flag by ArturLuczka on Pixabay, cropped, Pixabay license