We here in the United States really don’t think about Turkey a lot unless something dramatic happens, like the earthquake the country suffered in early February this year.

However, Turkey is a NATO member, which means that who governs the country does matter. For the last twenty years, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has held power in one office or another – as a party leader, as prime minister, and then as president since 2014. A coup attempt in 2016 – which Turkey has attempted to blame on the United States – gave Erdogan an excuse to crack down, and the general acknowledgement is that he has run the country as a strongman who planned on being president for life. Erdogan has been cozy with Russia, to the point that his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, accused Moscow of trying to interfere with the election. Erdogan has also been holding up Sweden’s application for membership in NATO, though Turkey did approve Finland’s membership (both countries applied to NATO after the Russian invasion of Ukraine), on the grounds that Sweden has allowed “hate crimes” against Muslims (a Koran was apparently burned at a protest and an effigy of Erdogan was hung upside down) and that Sweden is refusing to extradite people they claim are “terrorists” connected to the 2016 coup attempt.

Erdogan has had a mixed relationship with the United States, but the stories told by Enes Kanter Freedom of his father’s arrest, as well as Turkey putting an actual bounty on his head, mean that he is no defender of actual democracy that allows for dissent. Which makes the election that was held on Sunday that much more surprising. For the first time, there was an actual possibility that Erdogan may LOSE. And when it became apparent that it was possible, one candidate actually dropped out of the race, and his voters were expected to switch to Kilicdaroglu.

The presidential election had become a referendum on Erdogan’s government, particularly the inflation crippling the Turkish economy, and the negative reaction to the government’s response after the earthquake this year.

Critics maintain the president’s heavy-handed style is responsible for a painful cost-of-living crisis. The latest official statistics put inflation at about 44%, down from a high of around 86%. The price of vegetables became a campaign issue for the opposition, which used an onion as a symbol.”

In contrast with mainstream economic thinking, Erdogan contends that high interest rates fuel inflation, and he pressured the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey to lower its main rate multiple times.”

Erdogan’s government also faced criticism for its allegedly delayed and stunted response to the 7.8 magnitude earthquake that left 11 southern provinces devastated. Lax implementation of building codes is thought to have exacerbated the casualties and misery.”

In his election campaign, Erdogan used state resources and his domineering position over media to try to woo voters. He accused the opposition of colluding with “terrorists,” of being “drunkards” and of upholding LGBTQ+ rights, which he depicts as threatening traditional family values in the predominantly Muslim nation.”

In a bid to secure support, the Turkish leader increased wages and pensions and subsidized electricity and gas bills, while showcasing Turkey’s homegrown defense and infrastructure projects.”

On the opposite side, Kilicdaroglu is more secular, and has made promises to bring back the democratic system that Erdogan has been eroding.

Kilicdaroglu’s Nation Alliance pledged to return Turkey’s governance system to a parliamentary democracy if it won both the presidential and parliamentary ballots. It also promised to restore the independence of the judiciary and the central bank.”

“We have all missed democracy so much. We all missed being together,” Kilicdaroglu said after voting at a school in Ankara.”

And the voting public has been listening.

Speaking to CNN from a polling station in Istanbul’s Beyogly district, voter Korhan Futaci, 46, said: “My vote is for freedom. My vote is for the future of our kids. I’m hopeful.”

Yeliz Sahin, 46, whose brother and his son died in the earthquake, said: “It’s a historical moment that we’ve been waiting for for 20 years. This whole system needs to change.”

Meanwhile first-time voter Eren Uzmele, 19, said: “The future of the country is in our hands. It’s in the hands of the youth.”

As the polls closed on Sunday, and the vote counting moved into Monday morning, Erdogan was sitting at 49.4%, falling short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. The vote totals are still not complete, as there are overseas absentee ballots to be counted (someone check and see if Dr. Oz is voting again), and Erdogan is still hoping those overseas ballots will get him the numbers he needs.

With the unofficial count nearly completed, Mr. Erdogan received 49.4 percent of the vote to Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s 44.8 percent, according to the state-run Anadolu news agency.”

But both sides claimed to be ahead.”

“Although the final results are not in yet, we are leading by far,” Mr. Erdogan told supporters gathered outside his party’s headquarters in Ankara, the capital.”

Speaking at his own party’s headquarters, Mr. Kilicdaroglu said the vote would express the “nation’s will.” He said, “We are here until each and every vote is counted.”

The real question is, will Erdogan actually accept the results of an election that would send him to a runoff? He says he will.

Speaking to supporters in Ankara, Erdogan, 69, said he could still win but would respect the nation’s decision if the race went to a runoff vote in two weeks.”

“We don’t yet know if the elections ended in the first round. … If our nation has chosen for a second round, that is also welcome,” Erdogan said early Monday, noting that votes from Turkish citizens living abroad still need to be tallied. He garnered 60% of the overseas vote in 2018.”

The majority of ballots from the 3.4 million eligible overseas voters still needed to be tallied, according to the board, and a May 28 runoff election was not assured.”

Howard Eissenstat, an associate professor of Middle East history and politics at St. Lawrence University in New York, said Erdogan was likely to have an advantage in a runoff because the president’s party was likely to do better in a parliamentary election also held Sunday. Voters would not want a “divided government,” he said.”

Of course, it all depends on who is counting the votes, and Kilicdaroglu’s camp has already accused the state news of being biased for Erdogan. I have the feeling that regardless of the outcome, Turkey is going to have some internal turmoil for a while.

Let’s consider what would be best for the United States. Obviously, it would be better for us if Turkey wasn’t as friendly with Russia. It would also be better if Turkey dropped its opposition to Sweden joining NATO. And of course it would be better if Turkey wasn’t controlled by a government that found it perfectly acceptable to label people who criticize them as “terrorists” and put them on a wanted list with a reward on their heads. So yes, it would be better for the United States if Erdogan lost the election and a new government took over. Not that we should have any confidence that Joe Biden, who finds it very easy to insult and offend our allies, won’t screw this up in some way if Erdogan does lose.

Featured image via Engin_Akyurt on Pixabay, cropped, Pixabay license