The Michigan primary for both parties is being held today. There will be no surprises about who ends up winning the Republican primary. It’s the Democratic primary that may induce some real heartburn for Joe Biden’s campaign team.

As expected, Donald Trump is currently running away with Michigan in the GOP primary polls. And Joe Biden has no close challenger to worry about on the Democrat side of the ballot. So, what’s the problem for Democrats in Michigan? The Arab and Muslim community.

We already knew that there was a problem between the Biden campaign and the Arab and Muslim groups. Biden himself didn’t meet with those communities when he visited Michigan earlier this month (he focused on union labor instead). The campaign has been busy trying to iron out problems by sending surrogates like Samantha Power to ease tensions. It hasn’t worked. Rashida Tlaib (D-Hamas) has been openly telling her constituents in the Arab Muslim community to vote “uncommitted” in the Democrat primary to send a message to the party at large.

“We feel completely neglected and just unseen by our government. If you want us to be louder, then come here and vote uncommitted,” Tlaib, the first Palestinian American woman to serve in Congress, said in a video posted Saturday on X by the group Listen to Michigan.

Tlaib – a liberal firebrand who represents parts of Detroit and its suburbs – previously accused Biden of supporting a Palestinian “genocide” and warned Americans will remember how he responded to the war when he’s up for reelection.

“Mr. President, the American people are not with you on this one,” Tlaib said in a November video, adding, “We will remember in 2024.”

The Listen to Michigan campaign is made up of more than 30 Michigan officials who have pledged to vote “uncommitted” in the state’s presidential primary on February 27 to demand Biden support a ceasefire.

“It is also important to create a voting bloc,” Tlaib said in the Saturday video. “Something that is a bullhorn to say, enough is enough. We don’t want a country that supports wars and bombs and destruction. We want to support life. We want to stand up for every single life killed in Gaza.”

Tlaib’s position is now being endorsed by the Democrat floor leader of the Michigan House of Representatives, Abraham Aiyash.

“We’re talking about Joe Biden,” Aiyash bellowed from a raised platform into a sea of red, white, green and black flags rippling in the wind — the colors of the Palestinian flag. “He stood with no spine and did not demand peace for the Palestinians, did not demand peace for the Israelis — but instead, continues to fund a genocide.”

At just 28 years old, Aiyash rocketed into political prominence last year, becoming the first Arab American House majority leader in history. Now 30, he’s emerged as one of Biden’s fiercest Democratic critics over the administration’s support for Israel. He’s shot down bipartisan legislation regarding Israel, ruffled feathers on both sides of the aisle and drawn national headlines for taking part in high-profile protests of the war. Now, he is planning to use Tuesday’s presidential primary as a warning: If Biden continues to financially support Israel’s offensive in Gaza and fails to call for a permanent cease-fire, Michigan’s Arab American voters could bring their animosity to the polls — or stay home. Aiyash has signed onto a “Listen to Michigan” campaign, pledging to vote “uncommitted” on Tuesday and urging other Democrats to do the same. As for the general election, if Biden doesn’t budge, Aiyash said he’s genuinely conflicted about how to vote. He’s considering leaving the top of his ticket blank.

“I’ve encouraged folks to remain uncommitted in the presidential primary to remind every candidate that they have to earn the votes of their constituency,” Aiyash said. “When I run for office, I don’t tell people vote for me because the other guy is worse.”

Now, as other outlets point out, the Arab community in Michigan is only 2.1% of the state’s population. But it’s a percentage that Biden can’t afford to lose and still win Michigan.

It remains to be seen what repercussions Tuesday’s primary, in which Democrats who oppose Biden’s approach to the war are being implored to mark themselves as “uncommitted” or otherwise express their disapproval, happening during spring break will have on the election. The Listen to Michigan campaign, endorsed by Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, and even 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke, is aiming for 10,000 “uncommitted” votes on Tuesday. Biden won Michigan in the 2020 election by 154,000 votes. Hillary Clinton lost Michigan to former President Donald Trump in the 2016 election by less than 11,000 votes.

But there’s another looming problem for Joe Biden in Michigan – and it could persist into the general election. And that is voter apathy. The Arab community might lodge a protest vote today in the primary – but they, and the African-American community, might not show up at all in November.

Most of the focus has been on Dearborn, a town with an overwhelmingly Muslim population, and the abandonment its residents feel after backing Mr Biden to beat Mr Trump in 2020.

But, while this may be the biggest talking point as voters cast their ballots, the support of Muslim Americans might actually be the least of Mr Biden’s problems in Michigan.

Instead, Mr Biden’s bigger problem in Michigan will be with two demographics that could be overlooked: younger voters and African-American voters.

In 2020, Black voters propelled Mr Biden to the Democratic nomination when he won the South Carolina primary. Similarly, enough Black voters who voted for Bernie Sanders in 2016 – along with other groups – broke for him. After he won the presidency, Mr Biden said: “The African American community stood up again for me… You’ve always had my back, and I’ll have yours.”

But in recent years, Democrats have lost ground with African-American voters. A Gallup poll from earlier this week showed that their lead against Republicans with Black voters has shrunk by nearly 20 points in the last three decades, though they still maintain a 47-point lead. But in a state like Michigan, where Mr Biden won by less than three per cent, that could make all the difference.

Democrats received a shock in 2020 when Mr Trump improved his margins with Latino voters. But Mr Trump also made gains with African-American voters, particularly with Black men. Since then, the Democratic party has come to realise it has a problem appealing to working-class voters without degrees.

The Democrats have depended on huge “get out the vote” campaigns to win elections. What happens when the voters don’t care enough to show up to vote, in a swing state like Michigan? The Democrat voter who stays home in protest is handing a vote to Donald Trump – and the Democrats know that. That’s why Team Biden has old Joe out there eating ice cream and pandering his ass off, mumbling that there will be a ceasefire “by the weekend” – which would put it right before the start of Ramadan. You know, IF Hamas releases all the remaining hostages.

Too bad for Biden, both Hamas and Israel are wondering if the ice cream Biden was ingesting contained edibles.

Basem Naim, the head of Hamas’s political division in Gaza, said over WhatsApp on Tuesday that the Palestinian Islamist movement had not yet formally received a new proposal for a ceasefire since last week’s indirect talks in Paris mediated by the US, Egypt and Qatar.

The US leader’s remarks late on Monday that a temporary truce could be implemented as soon as 4 March were “premature” and did “not match the reality on the ground”, he said. Ahmad Abdel-Hadi, a Hamas representative in Beirut, also told a Lebanese broadcaster that significant progress on a deal had not been made.

Israeli officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that Biden’s comments came as a surprise and were not made in coordination with the country’s leadership. Hamas was continuing to push “excessive demands”, they said.

The remarks pour cold water on comments made by Biden in New York on Monday. “My national security adviser tells me that we’re close. We’re close. We’re not done yet,” Biden told reporters after taping an appearance on NBC’s Late Night With Seth Meyers. “My hope is by next Monday, we’ll have a ceasefire.”

I think that Team Biden is just wishcasting here, and sent out old Joe to make these statements in hopes that HE is seen as the flexible, moderating “peacemaker” in this situation, in hopes that it will save his political ass among the hard left. And when the ceasefire doesn’t happen, Biden can just point to the parties involved and say “Well, we tried. Can I have more ice cream?”

It’s like watching stage performers reenact a Renaissance painting. pic.twitter.com/wnvH3XeboA

— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) February 27, 2024

Now, Joe Biden is not at risk of losing the Michigan primary to the “uncommitted” vote. However, if that “uncommitted” vote is large enough, then watch the red alert go off in the Biden campaign, and the pressure to pander even harder to the far left on the Israel-Hamas war increase. If it comes down to Joe Biden getting re-elected or supporting Israel, Israel is going to go straight under the proverbial bus. The vote totals tonight might be very telling about what may happen in Michigan in November. Get your popcorn, everyone.

Featured image: original Victory Girls art by Darleen Click