As was reported early on Sunday (in the United States), the helicopter carrying Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, crashed somewhere in northern Iran.

Now, if a helicopter crashed with a United States president on board, then that helicopter would have been tracked down within minutes. Iran, on the other hand, took well over twelve hours, and the assistance of both Turkey and the EU – to locate the downed helicopter that was carrying its president – along with other top officials – due to a thick fog that no one should have been flying though. The delay in finding the crash site meant that it became ever more likely that there would be no survivors, as those who may have survived with medical attention obviously didn’t receive it. But in looking at the crash site, it seems unlikely that anyone was alive after impact.

Additional Drone Footage showing a Clearer Image of the Crash Site of the Late President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi’s Helicopter which Crashed yesterday in Northwestern Iran resulting in the Death of all Passengers. pic.twitter.com/65a09HtiMC

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 20, 2024

This was confirmed by Iranian media, who aired the admission that there were “no signs of life” at the crash site.

Hopes are fading that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his foreign minister have survived a helicopter crash in mountainous terrain and icy weather, an Iranian official said on Monday after search teams located the wreckage.

“President Raisi’s helicopter was completely burned in the crash … unfortunately, all passengers are feared dead,” the official told Reuters.

Rescue teams fought blizzards and difficult terrain through the night to reach the wreckage in East Azerbaijan province in the early hours of Monday.

“We can see the wreckage and the situation does not look good,” the head of Iran’s Red Crescent, Pirhossein Kolivand, told state TV.

“With the discovery of the crash site, no signs of life have been detected among the helicopter’s passengers.”

Raisi’s death in the helicopter crash was officially confirmed by his vice president about an hour later, along with others.

Iranian media has confirmed the death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi, aged 63, and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian following a helicopter crash in the country’s mountainous province of East Azerbaijan.

Iranian state media Press TV and semi-official Tasnim and Mehr news agencies reported all those on board were killed.

That would be the same foreign minister that the State Department issued a visa to back in April so he could go to the United Nations for a Security Council meeting. How things change.

Now that Iran has officially confirmed that Raisi is dead, it remains to be seen how the West will respond, and what Iran will do next. Let’s start with Iran. As more than one Middle East observer pointed out, the death of Raisi will kick off an internal power struggle that they definitely were not prepared to deal with right now.

Also, worth clarifying that the position of President of Iran is NOT the head leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. That is the Supreme Leader, currently Ali Khamenei.

An approximate organizational chart is below – the President oversees the cabinet of mostly domestic agencies pic.twitter.com/LLcZuksSLM

— Gabriel Noronha (@GLNoronha) May 19, 2024

The complete first tweet reads:

If Raisi is indeed dead, the key takeaway is not really who succeeds him (that’s the 1st VP Mohammad Mokhber, but only as a caretaker for 50 days before an election).

It’s the fact that the next Supreme Leader is most likely Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Internal pundits had believed the competition to succeed Khamenei as Supreme Leader was down to Mojtaba and Raisi. If Raisi is dead, Mojtaba becomes heir apparent.

The post of President is relatively unimportant – it’s more for domestic affairs, not national security and ideological direction.

The Assembly of Experts, an 88-person body, appoints the next Supreme Leader upon the death or vacancy in office of the Supreme Leader.

A question is whether anyone else would rise to challenge Mojtaba in the internal machinations. If not, it’s his for the taking.

And then we are set for the Islamic Republic to open itself up (rightly) to accusations that it has effectively become a hereditary monarchy – just in radical Islamic clothing.

This would make it harder for the regime to differentiate itself from its predecessor Pahlavi government, which is becoming viewed more favorably in retrospect by Iranians today.

For those who don’t remember, the Pahlavi government is referencing the Shah of Iran, who left Iran in exile during the Iranian Revolution of 1979 that turned the country into a theocratic state under the ayatollahs. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 85 years old and may have cancer. If he sets up his son Mojtaba to be the next Supreme Leader, the internal power struggle within Iran between the Islamic clerics and the people (who have been trying to break free from theocratic rule for a long time now, but especially over the last eighteen months since the death of Mahsa Amini) will only increase. And Iran has been more than happy to pull the strings lately of all their terror proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis – and attack Israel directly themselves. But now that they are in the middle of their own internal crisis, we’re apparently supposed to feel bad for them and NOT talk to the people who criticize them.

It appears the video was taken down due to a “copyright” claim.

Still available here: pic.twitter.com/w6h791av9X

— AG (@AGHamilton29) May 20, 2024

Is the media really going to try and pull the “austere religious scholar” crap again? Uh, yes. Yes, they are.

Raisi was a mass murderer and child murderer.

Reuters did the meme. https://t.co/HMe2JBmhtm

— Omri Ceren (@omriceren) May 20, 2024

There was a reason Raisi was called “the Butcher of Tehran,” everyone. Having thousands executed, along with having young girls beaten to death for not covering their heads properly, will not earn you a pretty moniker.

Raisi’s hardline position was also evident in domestic politics. A year after his election, the mid-ranking cleric ordered tighter enforcement of Iran’s “hijab and chastity law” restricting women’s dress and behaviour.

Within weeks, a young Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, died in custody after being arrested by morality police for allegedly violating that law.

The resulting months of nationwide protests presented one of the gravest challenges to Iran’s clerical rulers since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Hundreds of people were killed, according to rights groups, including dozens of security personnel who were part of a fierce crackdown on the demonstrators. “Acts of chaos are unacceptable,” the president insisted.

As a young prosecutor in Tehran, Raisi sat on a panel that oversaw the execution of hundreds of political prisoners in the capital in 1988, as Iran’s eight-year war with Iraq was coming to an end, rights groups say.

Inquisitions known as “death committees” were set up across Iran comprising religious judges, prosecutors and intelligence ministry officials to decide the fate of thousands of detainees in arbitrary trials that lasted just a few minutes, according to a report by Amnesty International.

While the number of people killed across Iran was never confirmed, Amnesty said minimum estimates put it at 5,000.

Asked about allegations that he had played a part in the death sentences, Raisi told reporters in 2021: “If a judge, a prosecutor, has defended the security of the people, he should be praised … I am proud to have defended human rights in every position I have held so far.”

Is anyone truthfully sorry that Ebrahim Raisi is dead? Probably some people in the State Department, full of Obama Iran Deal stans who were desperate to keep giving their favorite radical theocrats money. Oh, and Ben Rhodes. Definitely Ben Rhodes.

The immediate consequence of Raisi becoming one with the side of a mountain? Iran will have to take a major pause to do their mourning and figure out who ends up in the line of succession now. Will the Hamas funding have a bit of a hiccup in the meantime? Who knows. Will Hezbollah and the Houthis stay quiet for a little bit? Maybe. Can Israel breathe a little easier? Perhaps. Regardless of what happens next, there is one less mass murderer in the world. And that can only be a good thing.

Featured photo: Ebrahim Raisi from Ali Khamenei website via Wikimedia Commons, cropped and modified, Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0 DEED)