The conventional wisdom right now assumes that Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be engaging in a presidential rematch in 2024.

The conventional wisdom has… not been accurate in past presidential elections.

In December 2003, the CBS poll headline blared, “Dean pulls away in Dem race.” Howard Dean would eventually be clobbered by nominee John Kerry.”

In the Gallup Poll of late June 2007, Hillary Clinton still continued to enjoy her wide lead in the Democratic primary over eventual nominee and elected president Barack Obama.”

On the Republican side, Gallup noted of its summer 2007 polls that, “There has been little serious threat to the frontrunner, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani” — who bombed out early in the race.”

About this time in 2015, Jeb Bush was leading Trump in the Republican primary. Or as CNN characterized their summer poll, “He (Bush) holds a significant lead over the second-place candidate Trump.”

By January 2016, the favorite, can-do Wisconsin governor Scott Walker was leading all candidates by a substantial margin as they headed for the Iowa caucuses.”

Now granted, the races being talked about did not involve presidential incumbents. Joe Biden is the Democrat frontrunner by default, as his senile and aged self is currently sitting in the Oval Office currently making his way to Delaware for the next ten days, on yet another vacation.

He went on four day beach vacation two weeks ago. Then three days after that, spent four days in Delaware. https://t.co/fE5NhPp8xP

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) July 28, 2023

Donald Trump is the Republican frontrunner by default, being a former president, but his legal issues (politically motivated as they quite clearly are) continue to compound. Continuing to throw charges at Trump is a double-edged sword for both sides. Democrats are hoping that in continuing to attack Trump, the GOP voters will make Trump the 2024 nominee, whom an enfeebled Joe Biden has already beaten. The other edge of that sword for Democrats is that Joe Biden is one staircase away from being incapacitated, and a vengeful Trump could very well beat a frail Biden. For Republicans, the charges being tossed at Trump motivate the base, but the other side of that sword is that Trump’s poll numbers are frozen in a rematch against Biden. His numbers average between 43 and 46 points in a general election, and that will not be enough. Trump has a solid base, but the race will be won or lost with independents, and those voters are not breaking toward Trump yet – which could signal an extremely apathetic response and make the 2024 election a contest between the bases of each party, and how effective their turnout will be.

Again, we haven’t even had the first Republican primary debate. It’s too early to determine if the Republicans, or Trump, have learned anything about how to get out the vote. No election will be won by complaining that the other side cheats. If that’s the case, then what’s the point of having an election in the first place? The Republican ground game must make the Democrats live to regret the rules they put in place, and outwork them in every way possible. Whining does not equal winning, but work does.

But both parties are very aware that the frontrunners are not exactly on the most solid ground. The Democrats have the bigger problem in this regard than Republicans, because the Democrats cannot primary Joe Biden. Who are they going to replace him with – Kamala Harris? Her poll numbers are at record lows for a vice president, and she continues to sound like a predictive text A.I. program who says the most banal, inane crap every time she opens her mouth.

This is the reason why the Democrats are so concerned with a third party run. The “No Labels” party continues to tease and tempt Joe Manchin. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. continues to make headlines, if not always good ones, and the complaints by Democrats about the beliefs and behaviors that they have known about for YEARS now suddenly being unacceptably beyond the pale is hilariously disingenuous. But if Manchin declares himself a third party candidate, or RFK Jr. decides that he is going to run third party, those votes will be coming out of Biden’s base. And Biden’s current lead in a general election poll on Donald Trump is not big enough to take a hit from a credible third party challenger.

On the other side, the media is desperate to find a third party moderate Republican to hobble the GOP primary and Donald Trump. For example, Politico is desperate to make fetch Larry Hogan happen.

Even likelier to run as an independent than Manchin may be former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican who just left office after two terms in a deep-blue state.”

I asked Hogan directly this week: will you run for president on a third-party ticket if it’s clear Trump will be the nominee next winter?”

“I’m not going to say I absolutely wouldn’t consider it,” Hogan told me, before quickly adding his preference was for Republicans to defeat Trump in the primary.”

But then said, “I get why so many people want a third choice” and pointed to polls showing clear majorities of voters would be open to an independent candidacy.”

“Today it looks like we have two really terrible choices,” he said. “Most people in America, whether they’re Republicans or Democrats, they will say: ‘Is this the best we can come up with to serve as leader of the free world?’”

I should mention he also pointed out he left office with approval ratings in the 70s, thanks to strong support from both parties, and that he just happened to post a well-crafted, nearly-10-minute-long biographical video this week that ended with him saying: “The future is still to be decided – stay tuned.”

Subtle it’s not.”

Hogan is affliated with “No Labels,” and its clear that the media want him, not Manchin, to run. Hogan already bowed out of running as a Republican because he knew he could not win the base. Could he be the “No Labels” candidate of the media’s choosing and take votes from Trump? I’m kind of thinking that anyone willing to vote for Hogan wasn’t voting for Donald Trump in the first place, especially with Hogan’s record on schools reopening after the initial COVID-19 closures.

We have a very long way to go in this 2024 election cycle. To assume that it will be a Biden v. Trump rematch may seem like a fair bet, but absolutely nothing is for certain in politics. After all, if it was, we would have had Hillary Clinton as president.

Featured image: Wikimedia Commons/cropped/adjusted/CC BY-SA 2.0