The simple answer to the question of if Israel should target the nuclear facilities or the oil fields when retaliating against Iran is “both,” and it would be well deserved.

But there is an open question of what should come first. And everyone knows that Israel is going to retaliate, just as surely as they knew Iran was going to try and attack again. An act of war, which Israel has now seen twice in the drone and missile attack in April, and the missile attack yesterday, cannot be ignored. Last night’s debate question to both vice presidential candidates from the moderators, asking if Israel should make a “preemptive strike” on Iran, completely missed the point, and I wish that J.D. Vance (though his answer was perfectly adequate) had said this – there is no more “preemptive” about it. Iran has already attacked Israel, TWICE, and just because Israel was restrained the first time doesn’t make the need for retaliation any less necessary. This is a response, not a deterrent. And it has to be soon.

Why soon? Hezbollah is in shambles, but it can and will re-staff and re-arm. Nasrallah is dead, but Iran is going to make sure that Hezbollah lives another day.

The Islamic Republic is loath to lose its crown jewel. Hezbollah is Tehran’s foremost proxy and has been instrumental in carrying out the Iranian regime’s foreign policy. Iran used Hezbollah to ensure Bashar Assad’s survival during the Syrian Civil War, and it has used the group to menace the Gulf Arab monarchies whose overthrow is part of the Islamic Republic’s objectives. Tehran has used Hezbollah operatives to plot and carry out attacks on foreign soil, including in the United States and Europe. Hezbollah has been caught doing everything from running tobacco smuggling rings in North Carolina to casing John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York to trafficking in ivory in Africa and drugs in the Middle East. It is, in every sense, a global terrorist network, with a reach unrivaled by other Islamist movements.

Further, Hezbollah acts as insurance for Iran. Hezbollah’s presence on Israel’s border is meant, in part, to deter Israel from attacking Iran’s nuclear weapons program. In effect, Hezbollah has been a dagger held at Israel’s throat.

Hezbollah itself has conceded that the group is reliant on Iranian support. Hezbollah as it exists now is truly Iran’s creation, its pretensions to being a Lebanese national movement notwithstanding. Tehran is unlikely to let go of an organization that it spent years building — particularly an organization that de facto controls an entire country.

With Hezbollah currently unable to attack, Israel can press ahead against Iran – even though they would have had to anyway. The question then becomes, what do they target? The likeliest assumption is that they will target the oil fields first.

Netanyahu’s response to Iran’s blitz could target oil production facilities inside Iran within days, Israeli officials told Axios.

Other possible targets would be the country’s air defence system as well as assassinations of senior figures.

After Tuesday’s attack, Netanyahu said Iran “made a big mistake and it will pay for it.”

“The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies,” he added.

Now, Iran has said that if Israel retaliates, they will attack again. I guess that would depend on how much Israel takes out in the first strike – and if they decide to take out the nuclear facilities at the same time, or immediately after. Intelligence indicates that Iran does have enough enriched uranium and the needed fuel for three bombs. Iran going nuclear would mean a huge shift in power in the region. And if they do have a nuclear bomb, does anyone really think they WON’T use it against Israel? This leaves Israel in the position of needing to target the nuclear facilities now – because Hezbollah is unable to pull itself together to help. However, there are some who still think attacking the nuclear facilities is too dangerous.

Meir Javedanfar, a lecturer on Iranian diplomatic and security studies at Reichmann University in Herzliya, is among the analysts who advise against an Israeli strike at this moment.

Hezbollah may still be a deterrent capable of causing major harm to Israel, he argued. The terrorist group may be conserving its stockpile of tens of thousands of rockets “because this is one of the major deterrents that Iran has against the potential Israeli attack on its nuclear program,” Javedanfar said.

The Iranians, Javedanfar added, “are concerned that if they use it [Hezbollah’s arsenal] now, then Iran’s nuclear program could be exposed in the future to an Israeli attack. I think the Iranians are waiting to use those missiles on Judgment Day when they feel that Israel wants to launch a massive attack on Iran’s nuclear program and on Iran itself.”

Attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities now would at best “set it back a couple of years,” he opined. “We could press our advantage to actually try to reach a deal because we have a very strong hand right now,” said Javedanfar, who envisioned a tougher accord than the now-defunct United States-led JCPOA nuclear agreement.

Given the events of the past year, and the revelation that Hezbollah was prepared for an October 7th-style invasion of northern Israel to kill and take hostages (which was thwarted because Israel evacuated many towns and cities in the north due to the bombing by Hezbollah), I think there is exactly zero chance that a deal can be reached with the current regime in Iran. But apparently Joe Biden (yes, he’s still president) doesn’t want Israel to take out the nuclear sites – he wants the response to be “proportionate.”

President Biden said Wednesday that he opposes a possible preemptive Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program sites as tensions between the countries grow.

“The answer is no,” the 81-year-old retiring president told reporters under the wing of Air Force One as he departed Washington for a trip to North Carolina to tour Hurricane Helene damage.

Biden says "no," he does not support an attack on Iran's nuclear sites by Israel.

Kamala and Biden have botched virtually every aspect of the Middle East conflict since the 10/7 attack (nearly a year ago). President Trump will deliver PEACE! pic.twitter.com/nKiT2ST3Kk

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) October 2, 2024

Since Joe Biden is a meat puppet figurehead right now, Israel can easily ignore him and just press on with whatever retaliation they have planned. Just because only one person died in the missile attack yesterday doesn’t mean anything. The missiles were fired right at Israel, and it is only by the grace of God and the strength of the Iron Dome that there was only one death (because the guy did not take shelter and got hit by falling debris). If Biden and Harris and the Democrats truly believe that “Israel has the right to defend itself,” as they always say, then they need to stop throwing themselves in front of Iran’s nuclear program and saying “YOU SHALL NOT PASS” to the IDF.

Israel’s response will not be a tit-for-tat any more. It’s time to flatten things and scare the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guard badly enough that the people rise up against them. This is why Benjamin Netanyahu keeps addressing the Iranian people directly. The mullahs are the ones who are keeping this going, with the help of the IRGC.

The intelligence arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is reminding Iranian citizens that it is a crime in Iran to offer any support to Israel.

In the aftermath of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s missile attack on Israel, the IRGC is ordering Iranians — as it has in…

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) October 2, 2024

If Israel can decimate Iran’s ability to attack, ability to sell oil, and ability to make a nuke, then let them do it as they see fit – and ignore Joe Biden. Goodness knows most everyone else is doing the same these days.

Featured image: composite image of Israel’s flag (via PublicDomainPictures on Pixabay, cropped, Pixabay license) and Iran’s flag (via jorono on Pixabay, cropped, Pixabay license)