As we are a week out from Election Day 2022, the polls are tight and races are competitive in places they were never supposed to be. We have talked about different ones recently, especially New York’s gubernatorial race. However, New York is the home of most of the mainstream media, so the race in their backyard gets a lot of coverage. To really judge the size of the red wave, we are going to need to watch the Left West Coast.

Now, this is not going to be easy to judge next Tuesday, because by the time that the polls close on Election night on the West Coast, the East Coast will be packing it up and moving from their big names in front of the camera to the night shift. The only time the East Coast media stays up late is for presidential elections. But again, the West Coast elections are not going to determine whether a red wave exists. This is all about the SIZE, and whether the red wave is really a red tsunami. It’s now become a foregone conclusion that the House will flip, and the Senate is looking more promising day by day, poll by poll, with even FiveThirtyEight now calling control of the Senate a dead heat. By the time the West Coast closes its polls, control of the Senate may well be in the hands of Republicans, and the red wave will have fully materialized. But these three races – one in each West Coast state – will tell us whether the red wave has truly grown beyond the nightmares of the Democrats.

Washington Senate race – Patty Murray v. Tiffany Smiley
We have covered this race on this blog both here and here, as some of us are Washington state residents watching the candidates at the local level. Nationally, however, this race is barely registering. The Hill just ran an article listing the five Senate races that “will determine the Senate majority” and pointed out Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Washington state doesn’t make these lists, which goes to my point. If Tiffany Smiley beats Patty Murray, then it will be an epic upset that will cause absolute pants-wetting panic in the halls of Washington D.C. Why? Because Patty Murray, a thirty year incumbent who is part of Democrat leadership in the Senate, should have been an easy cakewalk for re-election in blue Washington, which currently has no elected Republicans in statewide office. And right now, Murray has to be wondering what tectonic plate she is standing on, because her world is being ROCKED.

This is significant. Do not sit this out, folks. https://t.co/7E2xiM2XNk

— Jason Rantz on KTTH Radio (@jasonrantz) October 30, 2022

And Tiffany Smiley is making the case for herself wherever she goes.

"We are more alike than we are different – it is time for unity, these aren’t Democrat or Republican issues, this is about the future of our children and this country." – @SmileyForWA @BillHemmer @DanaPerino

— America's Newsroom (@AmericaNewsroom) November 1, 2022

Democrats in Washington state are in the uncomfortable position of being nervous, something they are not used to. Is it coincidence that Governor Jay Inslee just gave up his emergency COVID powers yesterday (after announcing he would do so a month ago)? That timing is sus, as the kids say.

Now, thanks to Washington’s inane and long-standing mail-in voting, this race, unless it breaks heavily one way or another, will likely not be called on Election night. Hang on everyone – this could be a long count and shenanigans are not an impossibility.

Oregon gubernatorial race – Christine Drazan v. Tina Kotek v. Betsy Johnson
This race is a statistical dead heat and considered a “toss up” by Real Clear Politics. Oregon with a REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR? It could happen, and if it does, one of the big reasons will be because Betsy Johnson, a Democrat running as an independent, is likely drawing votes from the far left Tina Kotek (who we covered here). And not only has Johnson drawn votes, she’s drawn money away from Kotek.

Nike co-founder Phil Knight donated another $2 million to unaffiliated candidate for governor Betsy Johnson early last month, bringing the total that Oregon’s most well-known billionaire has spent on Johnson to $3.75 million.”

Huge political spending by Knight and other wealthy individuals and businesses, including a number of timber businesses and executives, has helped Johnson outraise Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan.”

And just how likely is it that Drazan can pull off a win in a week? Well, Michelle Goldberg at the New York Times is already trying to assign blame if Drazan wins. Her verdict? Yes, Betsy Johnson would be the likely target, but this is all really current Governor Kate Brown’s fault.

Kotek is thus in a tricky position: She has to convince voters that the crisis in Portland represents a technocratic rather than an ideological failure by Brown. “The two biggest issues right now are housing and homelessness, and mental health and addiction,” Kotek told me. “And I’ll be honest, she’s been absent on that topic. It’s not been a priority for her. And when you don’t make something a priority, agencies kind of flounder, money doesn’t move fast enough.”

And of course, Goldberg is all in on the Democrat.

There are reasons to think that Kotek, who has a reputation as an indefatigable legislator, can do better. In an otherwise tentative endorsement, The Oregonian singled out the specificity of her housing plan, and her ability to execute it: “Her exacting standards bode well for oversight of state agencies that have failed repeatedly and inexcusably under Gov. Kate Brown.”

It’s easy to blame the person currently in charge, but Kotek, even by Goldberg’s admission, would simply carry out the same policies as before. She just says she would shovel money at the problems FASTER. That is the typical Democrat playbook: money is supposed to solve everything!

This race is going to be another tight one, and if Drazan wins, she would be the first Republican governor in Oregon in FORTY YEARS.

Breaking that level of Democrat control would be another sign that the red wave has grown beyond expectations, and it would be amazing.

Los Angeles mayoral race – Karen Bass v. Rick Caruso
Technically, the mayor’s office in Los Angeles is nonpartisan. Everyone altogether now: HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

The candidates are both technically Democrats. Representative Karen Bass, who, once upon a time, was reportedly on Joe Biden’s short list of vice presidential candidates (because she fit the qualifications of being a “woman of color”) is running against businessman Rick Caruso, who was once a Republican but has switched his political affiliation to Democrat. Is this because a Republican couldn’t win in Los Angeles? You make the call. Bass has the endorsement of Barack Obama – is anyone surprised? Does anyone care?

His support helps add weight to Bass’ campaign argument that she’s the only real Democrat in the race and that her opponent, Rick Caruso, became one out of political expediency.

That has been a central attack line from Bass, who has emphasized that her opponent had been registered as a Republican as recently as 2019. Caruso said the GOP had shifted and became too extreme and that was why he switched parties weeks before announcing his candidacy earlier this year.

“I know Karen. She was with me in supporting my campaign from the beginning, and Karen Bass will deliver results,” said former President Obama, who also recorded a robocall in support of Bass that will begin Sunday. “Make no mistake, there is only one proven pro-choice Democrat in this race, and Karen Bass has devoted her life to serving her community.”

Yeah, Obama can’t even be bothered to show up for Bass, who has spent the last twelve years in Washington D.C. Has she really helped improve the “community” of Los Angeles in that period of time? Um, has anyone looked at Los Angeles recently???

As of two weeks ago, the race between Bass and Caruso was polling as a statistical dead heat. Could this be a huge bellwether for things to come in California? I don’t know if I would go that far – after all, Gavin Newsom is looking to cruise to re-election victory after surviving a recall just a little over a year ago. (Let’s bookmark this for the future – during a debate, Newsom vowed to serve all four years of his gubernatorial term, which would theoretically keep him from running for president. I expect him to break that promise the second that Biden is pulled out of the 2024 race and it becomes a free-for-all on the Democrat side.) And Alex Padilla, who took over Kamala Harris’s Senate seat, is likely to win his race as well.

So why pay attention to a mayoral race? Well, a couple of reasons. First, this is Los Angeles we are talking about – their city budget is $11.8 billion, which is more than double the state budget of Delaware. It is the second largest city in the United States. And it is the home, for better or worse, of a majority of the entertainment companies in America. Remember how Andrew Breitbart said that “politics is downstream of culture”? If Los Angeles doesn’t vote in Karen Bass, an Obama-approved rubber stamp for the Democrat agenda, then it will demonstrate that even Los Angeles is fed up with where the policies of the left has taken them. And THAT will be yet another indicator of just how big the red wave has become. Thanks to mail-in ballots, we probably won’t have those election results on Election Night either, unless there is a blowout.

The red wave may well happen without any of these races playing a part – and delayed results and the time difference on the West Coast will mean that the national media won’t cover much of this in a week. But just think about these three races, and what this would mean for both the West Coast, which has long been a deep blue stronghold, and for both parties. If all three states have a significant Republican win, then Democrats will be very afraid for what 2024 holds for them. The blame will be heaped on Joe Biden instantly, and it will make him unable to run for a second term. Even one or two wins on the West Coast would rock the Democrats’ world.

Just one more week to go.

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