The media narrative was that Joe Miller was a long shot candidate. Lisa Murkowski was ahead in the polls. She outspent him and outpolled him. Not many people thought that Miller had a prayer of winning, even with Sarah Palin’s endorsement.

But people forget that endorsements from Palin are like the anti-Obama endorsement. (If you want a candidate to lose, get him an Obama endorsement.) Sarah Palin, on the other hand, has a golden touch with almost every candidate she endorses. And, surprise! It looks like Miller pulled out a win over the big-government Murkowski.

A decorated Gulf War veteran was holding a narrow lead over Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the Alaska Republican Senate primary, as ballots continued to be counted Wednesday in what could shape up to be a stunning political upset.

Polls taken before primary day had shown Murkowski, a two-term senator from an Alaska political dynasty, leading handily against the first-time candidate. But challenger Joe Miller insisted all along that the state’s polling was unreliable — as of Wednesday morning, Miller held a 2,000-vote lead.

With 98 percent of precincts reporting, he had 51 percent and Murkowski had 49 percent. The number of uncounted absentee ballots, though, exceeded the number of votes separating the candidates.

The Alaska race marked the second surprise from a Tea Party-backed candidate in Tuesday’s elections. Health care executive Rick Scott earlier defeated Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum for that state’s GOP gubernatorial nomination after polls also showed McCollum pulling away from Scott.

Miller had the added help of an endorsement from former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has a history with the Murkowski family. Palin defeated Murkowski’s father Frank in the 2006 gubernatorial primary. Though there was speculation over whether she might challenge Murkowski for her seat, Palin instead endorsed Miller after leaving the governor’s office.

Murkowski has proudly touted her seniority after eight years in office, and said her roles on the appropriations and energy committees put her in a strong position to ensure Alaskans’ voices are heard. She denounced Miller for making what she considered deceptive statements about her votes and statements.

But Miller, standing behind his words, sought to cast Murkowski as being too liberal and part of the problem in an out-of-control Washington.

Miller told reporters he’s trying to be realistic about the early results showing him slightly in the lead. He spoke to reporters at election central headquarters in Anchorage, where his supporters chanted “Miller Time!” and “Go Joe Go!” Miller joked on Twitter, “What’s the moose hunting like in the Beltway?”

According to the Alaska Division of Elections 16,000 absentee ballots were requested and fewer than half have been received. The margin of error is small enough that Murkowski could still pull out the win. If Joe Miller does indeed win, though, that would make Palin 2-0 versus the Murkowskis.

What made Murkowski lose to a little-known attorney, though? Well, she’s a big-government Republican and is also pro-abortion. For me personally, the fact that she touts her experience as a career politician is grating enough in and of itself. If someone is touting their seniority in government, that’s probably a sign that they need to go.

Another big issue could potentially be energy tax hikes. Miller signed a pledge saying he would oppose any global warming bill that included a tax hike. Murkowski? Not so much:

Murkowski, on the other hand, refused to sign the pledge and openly discussed a carbon tax approach that could have a major negative impact on the oil and gas industry and the U.S. economy. In an energy state like Alaska, that’s not just a major economic policy mistake; as Murkowski has learned the hard way, it can end a Senate career.

It’s still too early to tell who will end up winning in Alaska. Even if Murkowski is victorious, though, it just goes to show that you can’t underestimate Sarah Palin’s influence. Murkowski refused to take Miller seriously as a candidate, and no one thought Miller had a shot at winning. If Miller loses at the last minute, it’s still a powerful lesson that no one is safe and guaranteed an easy ride to victory.