It was a head scratcher — how a tough autocrat like Vladimir Putin could have been blindsided by last week’s near-coup of the Russian military. Especially since US intelligence knew two weeks earlier that Wagner group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning the coup. And if the US knew, it’s likely that the Ukrainians did, too. In fact, according to a leak, Prigozhin offered to give Russian troop locations to the Ukrainians.

Plus, Russian intelligence also knew about Prigozhin’s activities. Bojan Pancevski, the Germany correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, writes:

Prigozhin originally intended to capture Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia’s general staff, during a visit to a southern region that borders Ukraine that the two were planning. But the Federal Security Service, or FSB, found out about the plan two days before it was to be executed, according to Western officials.

So if the US knew, the Ukrainians knew, and mostly importantly the FSB knew — how did Prigozhin nearly pull this off?

Pancevski adds:

Western officials said they believe Prigozhin had communicated his intentions to senior military officers, possibly including Gen. Sergei Surovikin, commander of the Russian aerospace force. It couldn’t be determined whether Surovikin passed this information on to the FSB, or how the agency found out about Prigozhin’s plans.

In Washington, U.S. officials said it appeared that Surovikin might have been sympathetic to Prigozhin’s aims, but not necessarily supportive of or involved in the mutiny.

Surovikin was also the first senior commander to condemn the plot. He also urged Prigozhin to stop his Wagner troops in this video, which looks more like a hostage statement.

“Stop the columns and return” … Surovikin calls the Wagner leadership to stop.

-> There we’re no moving Wagner columns actually reported … but we’ll see. It’s bizzare. https://t.co/Jew92ZFsSX pic.twitter.com/yBFBFwGQud

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) June 23, 2023

But perhaps that was a CYA on Surovikin’s part. Maybe this general was more on the side of Prigozhin than Putin.

Surovikin is one of two Russian generals who went missing after the aborted coup. Neither he nor Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s top general, have been seen in public since last Saturday. Moreover, “Rybar,” a channel on the Telegram messaging app run by a former Russian defense ministry press officer, said a purge was underway:

The armed insurgency by the Wagner private military company has become a pretext for a massive purge in the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces.

So was Surovikin a casualty in the authorities’ purge of military brass who showed a “lack of decisiveness” in putting down the coup? Gerasimov, it should be noted, was one of Prigozhin’s targets, since he found Gerasimov to be incompetent. But Surovikin? The Russian press had dubbed him “General Armageddon” for his aggressive tactics in Syria.

Yep, Surovikin Was Arrested By Russian Authorities

On Wednesday, the Moscow Times reported that Gen. Sergei Surovikin was indeed arrested, even though at this time the Defense Ministry has not commented. However, two anonymous sources (they have them in Russia, too) reported to the Times that Surovikin is under arrest.

One source said:

In the context of Prigogine [an alternate spelling of Prigozhin]. Apparently, he [Surovikin] chose the side [of Prigozhin during the rebellion] and they grabbed him by the balls.

“Grabbed him by the balls?” I’m assuming that’s figurative language, but these are Russians, so you never know.

Moreover, the arrest may have come as a result of that video in which Surovikin ordered the Wagner troops to stop. He wasn’t assertive enough, leaving some authorities wondering if the general was involved with the coup attempt.

As for Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner chief who started the attempted coup — he’s supposedly safe in Belarus.

New: Two planes linked to Wagner CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin have landed at a Belarusian airbase outside of Minsk,
according to a satellite image from BlackSky. Prigozhin's exact whereabouts still unconfirmed but Belarus’ leader Lukashenko claimed earlier “[Prigozhin] is in Belarus.” pic.twitter.com/0aiQXJTaZQ

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) June 27, 2023

In the meantime, Prigozhin should stay away from windows. And watch his back.

So what will become of Gen. Sergei Surovikin? If true life in Putin’s regime is anything like the Stalin era as depicted in the dark comedy The Death of Stalin, he may not have long for this world.

Tenor.com.

Meanwhile, it’s good news for Ukraine. A new Reuters/Ipsos survey showed a sharp uptick in the percentage of Americans who support arming Ukraine. Now 65 percent want the US to continue providing arms to Ukraine, as opposed to 48 percent in May. That even includes 56 percent of Republicans, as well as 57 percent of independents.

The coup may have ended quickly, but the upheaval in Russia continues.

Featured image: Wikimedia Commons/Kremlin.ru/cropped/CC BY 4.0/International