Whenever the enemy of a despot dies, especially under strange and unusual circumstances, the despot will express his sadness at the dearly departed’s passing. So Vladimir Putin dutifully expressed his condolences at the untimely death of Yevgeny Prigozhin in an “aviation tragedy.” (Putin’s words, not mine.)

Here are some of Putin’s remarks upon the death of Prigozhin:

As for the aviation tragedy, first of all I want to express my most sincere condolences to the families of all the victims. It is always a tragedy …

But what is quite definite – the head of the Investigative Committee reported to me this morning – is they have already begun a preliminary investigation into this event. And it will be carried out in full, and taken right to the end. There are no doubts about this.

There’s a joke going around that Putin will employ O.J. Simpson to discover who or what killed Prigozhin. Then again, there are some people questioning whether or not Prigozhin really is dead — consider this is Russia, land of truly fake news and disinformation, so how do we know for sure?

Such machinations remind me of this scene from the black comedy The Death of Stalin in which General Georgy Zhukov and Nikita Kruschev plot the demise of NKVD chief Lavrenty Beria on the day before Stalin’s funeral.

Yeah, it’s a satire. And brilliant, too. But Kruschev did indeed head up the successful execution plot that killed Beria. The events in the film took place 70 years ago, but some things in Russia never change.

Is Putin Safe After Prigozhin’s Death?

Anyone’s guess is good at this point, but the death of Prigozhin may not bode well for Putin in the long term.

Understandably, Prigozhin’s loyal Wagner group operatives are calling for revenge. The London Times reports:

“We will avenge this,” a former Wagner fighter told a Russian Telegram channel, as the group’s supporters called for a new march on Moscow. “March on the Kremlin! Kill all traitors from the Ministry of Defence!” read one comment.

However, this may be more bluster than bite. The Kremlin has taken steps to place several Wagner groups in Africa under its control, while integrating others into the Russian army. If any Prigozhin loyalists in the Wagner group were to rise up, the Kremlin would make short work of any rebellion.

Politico quotes an unnamed US official familiar with Russia:

Putin has a pretty clear track record of at least operating within his own country with impunity. I don’t get the sense there’s any mechanism under which he’ll be held accountable … Just because people hate you doesn’t mean you’re necessarily going to be out of power.

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur wrote in a text:

The society of fear is growing rapidly in Russia, and people are more afraid than ever to come out for demonstrations or something similar. So all in all, dictatorship in [the] mafia state is growing.

Charles Lipson, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Chicago, created this meme which shows why Putin wanted Prigozhin dead:

Screenshot: @Charles_Lipson/X.

Or, Maybe Not

Mark Galeotti, British historian and honorary professor at the University College London School of Slavonic and East European Studies, writes in The Spectator that Putin may have gone a bit too far:

The Russian elites are likely to see this as evidence not that Putin is strong but that he is increasingly and murderously erratic. That he flip-flopped so quickly from lambasting Prigozhin as a traitor to inviting him to his recent Africa summit to murdering him will do nothing to calm nerves about Putin’s state of mind and grip on the system …

Assuming he did have Prigozhin killed – and that must be our working assumption for now – then Putin may have hoped to cow both groups with such a naked display of power and violence. But he may find he has done the opposite.

Galeotti also asserts in the Daily Mail that “Putin has taken his reckless behaviour to new heights” which has “left him weaker:”

By failing to act immediately against Prigozhin over the mutiny, he looked weak. By disposing of him now, despite their ‘deal’, he looks untrustworthy. And in a world in which there are no official rules, only informal understandings, trust is a vital commodity.

And the number of people prepared to stick their necks out for Putin is falling fast. His growing list of enemies, from the turbo-patriots who lament his failures in Ukraine, to the heads of the military who found themselves played off against Prigozhin, are moving ever closer to a tipping point: when the risks attached to deposing him are outweighed by the dangers of not doing so.

Plus, Michael Rubin, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, imagines the worst in an article at the defense blog 19FortyFive. Putin may have set Russia on the road to civil war:

Prigozhin was not alone in his June 2023 rebellion. Hundreds of battle-hardened Wagner veterans may feel they have no choice but to go to ground and avenge their late leader against the man who almost certainly ordered his death …

Imagine battle-hardened veterans hunting down policemen, mayors, deputies, and ministers throughout the country. Should Wagner go this route, it will slowly erode the foundation of Russia’s stability and bring a taste of civil war-era Lebanon to the country.

In other words, Putin better not fire his food-taster. And even then, don’t trust the food-taster, either.

Putin, the US, Britain, and NATO

Charles Lipson, writing in The Telegraph in the UK, provides three lessons for the US, Britain, and NATO:

1. Putin is fearful of his grip on power and determined to kill off any threats… Putin clearly understands the endgame for all autocrats: strong man today, dead man tomorrow.
2. Agreements with Putin are worthless, as Prigozhin was only the latest to find out. Putin will rip them up as soon as his short-term interests change.
3. Putin’s failed war of choice in Ukraine has destabilized his regime.

And, if anyone thinks they can negotiate with Putin to end the Ukraine War, Lipson says forget about it:

Even as some NATO partners tire of the war’s costs, the prospects [of] a compromise solution are grim. Ukraine is determined to fight on. Putin’s invasion forged them into a coherent nation, including even the Russian-speaking areas.

An insurance company once said in a commercial Life comes at you fast. And with any luck, Vladimir Putin may be learning that soon.

Featured image: Government of the Russian Federation/Wikimedia Commons/cropped/CC BY 3.0.