On Thursday morning, I wrote about the military coup in Russia, brought to the nation by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner gang of mercenaries. I had to quickly update it, however, since within 24 hours Prigozhin gave up his march to Moscow. Apparently the idea of “spilling Russian blood” didn’t appeal to him, even after he boasted that “we will destroy everything.”

So Prigozhin cut a deal with Vladimir Putin, supposedly with the help of Belarus’s President Lukashenko. The terms sound like the solution to a labor dispute: Wagner forces will return south, with no prosecutions for anyone who participated in the coup. Plus, any Wagner troops who refused to march on Moscow will receive offers from the regular army. (Imagine having former convicts in your ranks. That should thrill Russian officers).

As for Prigozhin himself — he will go to live in Belarus, and all charges of mutiny will be dropped. Although he might want to avoid windows on upper floors for a while, especially since Putin needs to restore his strongman reputation. Plus, Belarus is a Russian vassal state, and Lukashenko is a Putin puppet.

Did Prigozhin Weaken Putin?

Depends upon whom you ask, apparently.

The UK’s Sky News suggests that while Putin may have endured a set back, he may be setting Prigozhin up for a position in Belarus.

Meanwhile, Putin’s fan bois on the internet insist that he’s playing some sort of 3D chess. Like the Twitter account @WarClandestine:

I think Prigozhin is working with Putin as usual to accomplish any number of goals. What did Putin gain? The disguise of the movement of mass quantities of his troops, the appearance of being weak to bait Ukraine to attack (they did and lost outside Artyomovsk), and he weeded out any traitors who may have tried to join with Prigozhin. What did Putin ultimately lose? Nothing. There was no civil war. No civilians in danger. And now the country and the public are galvanized around him.

Bullshit, says Red State military writer ‘streiff:’

He [Prigozhin] took over two Russian cities, including the headquarters of the Southern Military District that controls the fighting in Ukraine. Units of the Russian Army rallied to his banner. There weren’t “zero casualties.” Wagner shot down at least six Russian aircraft. Traitors weren’t weeded out; they were given amnesty….

Because it was real, the one certainty is that Putin comes out of this weaker. A rank outsider nearly pulled off a successful coup d’etat. The whole episode played out on Russian-language social media and can’t be covered up. If this was disinformation, it was not aimed at the West; it was aimed at the Russian people.

Military historian and author Edward Luttwak writes at UnHerd that the Wagner revolt was of Putin’s own making. He failed to recognize the incompetence of his defense minister Sergei Shoigu and his chief of staff Valery Gerasimov — both leaders whom Prigozhin wanted gone:

And, of course, as perfect yes-men, Shoigu and Gerasimov never told Putin that, if he wanted to invade Ukraine, he first had to declare war and mobilise the Russian army ….

Putin is no Stalin. He is still, after everything, the bureaucrat he has always been. He would never have dreamed of promoting the talented Prigozhin to run his war, in the way that Lincoln promoted the hard-drinking Grant.

However, continues Luttwak, Prigozhin should still watch his back. And avoid windows:

In the coming days, Prigozhin will be captured or killed. Any trial would compound Putin’s colossal embarrassment.

Meanwhile Ukraine Enjoys the Show

David Patrikarakos, foreign correspondent for UnHerd, was in Odesa, Ukraine, when the short-lived coup took place:

Here in Odesa, the mood is a mix of incredulity, fascination and schadenfreude. Or, as my friend Hanna tells me with glee: “It’s popcorn time — it’s just a shame there’s no popcorn in Ukraine these days.”

Tenor.com.

Could this revolt — short-lived as it was — be a turning point for Ukraine?

This may be a way for Putin to end the war and still save face. That’s because he can blame Prigozhin, the Wagner group, and any other paramilitary groups for his failures, providing him an exit.

That would be the best of all situations, of course. It’s more wishful thinking. But in the meantime, the world can see the cracks in Putin’s tough-guy façade.

On Saturday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken commented on ABC:

If you put this in context 16 months ago, Putin was on the doorstep of Kyiv in Ukraine, looking to take the city in a matter of days, erase the country from the map. Now he’s had to defend Moscow, Russia’s capital, against a mercenary of his own making.

While BBC.com reported:

The Wagner group has been providing some of the most successful shock troops fighting in Ukraine, even though many of its fighters have been drawn from prisons, lured with the promise of freedom for frontline service …

However, Russian forces will no doubt have heard what’s been going on and the news may be demoralising.

But there are risks from a Russia on the brink of collapse in its leadership. The country has thousands of nuclear weapons, for example. There is also the dependency upon Russian oil and gas that many prominent European nations have.

Prigozhin may be out of Putin’s hair — for now. But the Russian authoritarian has suffered a setback that endures; this revolt, in fact, is the the most serious challenge to his long hold on Russian power. National Review‘s Noah Rothman predicts:

Russia is becoming unglued. The next 48–72 hours are critical. They will determine the course of Russian and, therefore, European history for years to come.

I’m not sure that the timeframe of 48-72 hours will hold. But one brutal maniac failed to depose the other brutal maniac, and Russia is now on tenterhooks.

Featured image: Prigozhin and Putin in better days. Government of the Russian Federation/cropped/CC BY 3.0.