How Close Is Iran To Having A Bomb? Does It Matter?

June 20, 2025

How Close Is Iran To Having A Bomb? Does It Matter?

by Toni Williams in politics Post Comment

It’s a head scratcher. It’s a conundrum. The Left and the Panicans have their hair on fire that Trump is going to start World War III. The Lindsay Graham-types are drooling to start another war. And another group is saying Iran does /t have a bomb, does not want a bomb and it’s against their nature to build a bomb. The question is how close is Iran to having a bomb? Does it matter where they are in the process? Can we trust our intelligence agencies? That’s a big question.

The Iran questions are existential and have been hanging over our heads for 46 years. This is not new news. First we abandoned the Shah or the CIA overthrew the Pahlavi reign in Iran and then in November, 1979, the Iranians kidnapped soldiers, diplomats and others for the Iran Hostage Crisis. Cheese and crackers, we never learn.

Ever since then, the Ayatollah and his minions have considered us the Great Satan and Israel the Little Satan. Murdering and maiming is the trademark of the regime. Since Israel started, rightfully I think, bombing Iranian weapons and military sites, the question has been how close is Iran to THE bomb. Trump punted his decision for two weeks and we should be glad he did.

The New York Times is lying, fake news, BUT we can add their droppings into the group to help with perspective. It might help us understand why Trump needs two weeks. Remember when the Intelligence Community lied about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Yes.

Last night, the New York Times posted “U.S. Spy Agencies Assess Iran Remains Undecided on Building a Bomb”. This is the sublede “U.S. intelligence officials said Iran was likely to pivot toward producing a nuclear weapon if the U.S. attacked a main uranium enrichment site, or if Israel killed its supreme leader.” Well, regime change has never worked so there is that. The Op-Ed opens:

U.S. intelligence agencies continue to believe that Iran has yet to decide whether to make a nuclear bomb even though it has developed a large stockpile of the enriched uranium necessary for it to do so, according to intelligence and other American officials.

That assessment has not changed since the intelligence agencies last addressed the question of Iran’s intentions in March, the officials said, even as Israel has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities.

Senior U.S. intelligence officials said that Iranian leaders were likely to shift toward producing a bomb if the American military attacked the Iranian uranium enrichment site Fordo or if Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader.

The question of whether Iran has decided to complete the work of building a bomb is irrelevant in the eyes of many Iran hawks in the United States and Israel, who say Tehran is close enough to represent an existential danger to Israel. But it has long been a flashpoint in the debate over policy toward Iran and has flared again as President Trump weighs whether to bomb Fordo.

Fordo is the featured image at the top of this page. An impregnable fortress. For years, {years!}, the powers that be have told us that Iran was this close to having a nuclear bomb. Now, Iran says it’s against their religion or something. More from the New York Times:

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a religious ruling, or fatwa, in 2003 that has prevented the country from developing nuclear weapons. That is “right now holding,” a senior intelligence official said, adding that the Israeli assessment that Iran was 15 days away was alarmist.

Mr. Netanyahu has repeatedly warned over the years that Iran is close to a nuclear weapon. And since Israel began its attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Israeli officials have warned that Iran was weeks away from having the components for a bomb. Mr. Netanyahu has not been specific on the time frame.

“In recent months, Iran has taken steps that it has never taken before, steps to weaponize this enriched uranium, and if not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time,” Mr. Netanyahu said. “It could be a year. It could be within a few months, less than a year. This is a clear and present danger to Israel’s very survival.”

Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, kind of threaded the needle here. The cyber work of Iran is very dangerous to us. Iran isn’t building the nuclear weapon and the Ayatollah has still hasn’t lifted the ban. BUT, they are talking about it and they are close:

I didn’t hear anything for Trump to be mad at here. Do Trump or Gabbard trust the people in the Intelligence Community? Not with their lives but with ours? Do they realize that both Tulsi Gabbard and John Ratcliffe could be right?

Trump should fire everyone that isn't named Tulsi Gabbard. https://t.co/tCMcZSYk2O

— (@GH0STRIDAH) June 20, 2025

These people are so on and off or black and white about everything. The Iranians could be very close without going there. General Kurilla is the man crush of someone I care about:

Testifying before Congress on June 10, Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, the head of Central Command, said Iran’s nuclear stockpile and available centrifuges could allow it to produce weapons-grade material in a week, and were enough to make 10 weapons in three weeks if the government decided “to sprint to a nuclear weapon.”

Trump is more than right to take two weeks or more. Find the lay of the land. Don’t shut out Gabbard or Hegseth until you know where the truth lies.

I trust NBC even less than the New York Times:

JUST IN: Trump relying on a small group of advisers for critical input as he weighs whether to order US military action in Iran targeting its nuclear program.

In: Vance, Rubio, Miller, Wiles,

Out: Hegseth, Gabbard. Ratcliffe.

SOURCE: @NBCNews https://t.co/XZnQeuct9R pic.twitter.com/avEvcSbv0P

— Maine (@TheMaineWonk) June 20, 2025