Yes, barring a black swan event (medical, flight of stairs, or otherwise), the presidential election of 2024 is a rerun of 2020. And yet, it really isn’t. After four years of Trump, followed by four years of Biden, the American public knows exactly what they are getting.

No less a left-leaning publication than the Huffington Post is conceding that the entire situation is pretty much baked into the proverbial cake, and there are very few people out there who don’t have an opinion about both men.

Back in 2020, the campaign took place right as COVID-19 was first spreading, creating a once-in-a-lifetime public health crisis. This election is unfolding amid a pair of violent international crises, the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.

The main economic challenge in 2020 was to prop up the economy as the pandemic threatened to shut it down. Today, the main challenge with the economy is to keep it running without letting it overheat.

Violent crime is now going down instead of up. Illegal border crossings are going up instead of down. And of course, in 2020, abortion was still a right throughout the U.S., albeit with restrictions. Now it exists only in some states, and is under threat in others.

But there’s another, less obvious difference between 2020 and 2024, and it might matter even more. Today, we know a great deal more about the two men who are likely to appear on the ballot.

Of course, the HuffPo is happy to point out all of Trump’s legal issues while glossing over Biden’s foreign policy failures, or pondering WHY illegal immigration is a problem. The lack of true introspection means that they can keep covering for Biden, without trying to comprehend why his poll numbers collapsed after Afghanistan and have never recovered since. But other outlets, like POLITICO, are hesitantly acknowledging that Biden’s got problems.

Memo to Democrats: It’s not Nancy Jacobson who’s disrupting President Joe Biden’s speeches most every time he appears in public and it’s also not Nancy Jacobson floating Robert F. Kennedy Jr. $15 million to help him get on general election ballots.

I don’t write this to downplay the threat that Jacobson’s group, No Labels, poses to Biden’s reelection. A center-right candidate able to secure ballot access could claim thousands of voters Biden needs, namely those Americans who grudgingly voted for him to oust Donald Trump in 2020 and are dreading doing so once more.

Yet the collective Democratic fixation on No Labels increasingly looks misplaced — or at least disproportionate given how the 2024 political landscape is taking shape.

It’s the left that presents the most acute peril to the president.

The article goes on to describe that Biden’s support for Israel – as wimpy and half-hearted as it is – has made the radical left mad. Mad enough to perhaps seek out a different, harder left candidate. Biden and his campaign are getting heckled by activists and he dodged meeting with the Arab communities in Michigan, which is a swing state where Trump has a lead in the polls. Jonathan Martin, writing in POLITICO, is sounding the alarm that this could cost the Democrats votes from the left.

One House Democrat told me of a dinner last month with about eight other colleagues, a cross-section of the caucus ideologically and generationally. “It was unanimous that this Israel-Gaza war needed to end now and that Biden needed to stand up to Bibi,” this lawmaker told me, before offering his own view.

“This is a disaster politically,” said this House Democrat, who rarely criticizes Israel. “The base is really pissed — and it’s not just the leftists. I have never seen such a depth of anguish as I’ve seen over this Gaza issue. Bibi is toxic among many Democratic voters and Biden must distance himself from him — yesterday.”

There is a hate-the-sin-love-the-sinner element to Biden’s approach to Israel that some in Gen Z can’t fully grasp. His politics are that of a Cold War Democrat, and a Northeastern one at that. Support for Israel is part of his liberal DNA, no matter the prime minister. Jewish voters, Irish ones, Italian, too — that’s the coalition. It’s a matter of principle, sure, but also domestic politics. But they’ve not heard of the “Three Is” on TikTok.

If the base deserts Biden, then the election is over. Last night, the media triumphantly announced that Old Joe had scored an “overwhelming” victory in the South Carolina primary.

The election, called by The Associated Press shortly after polls closed, gives Mr. Biden the first set of delegates required to claim the Democratic nomination at the party’s convention in August.

Mr. Biden vowed that South Carolina would once again send him to the White House.

“The people of South Carolina have spoken again, and I have no doubt that you have set us on the path to winning the presidency again — and making Donald Trump a loser again,” the president said in a statement released by his campaign.

Mr. Biden won an overwhelming majority of South Carolina Democrats, more than 96 percent with 80 percent of the vote counted — dominating every county with more than 95 percent of the vote, including in heavily Black areas.

Yeah… about that “overwhelming majority”… In the 2020 South Carolina primary, which was highly competitive, Joe Biden won 48.4% of the vote, with a total of 256,047 votes. Yesterday, Joe Biden got 96.2% of the vote… but only 126,321 votes. In other words, uh-oh.

Ultimately, South Carolina saw only 4% voter turnout statewide with 131,870 ballots cast, the lowest turnout in the past three Democratic presidential preference primaries. In 2020, the state saw roughly 16% voter turnout and 12.6% turnout in 2016. Former President Barack Obama, the last incumbent Democratic candidate, ran unopposed in 2012’s state primaries.

Yes, this is a non-competitive Democratic primary. Still, YIKES. No wonder Team Biden would rather focus on the percentage, and not the vote totals.

Also yikes for the Biden campaign – he’s in deep trouble in the polls.

NBC News Poll: Trust to do a Better job…

Border Security
Trump 57% (+35)
Biden 22%
.
The Economy
Trump 55% (+22)
Biden 33%
.
Dealing with crime and violence
Trump 50% (+21)
Biden 29%
.
Being competent and effective
Trump 48% (+16)
Biden 32%
.
Improving America's standing in… https://t.co/ZHgulq5t7g pic.twitter.com/1BA25lo9A4

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 4, 2024

You know that it must be paining NBC News to have produced this poll.

Biden trails GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump on major policy and personal comparisons, including by more than 20 points on which candidate would better handle the economy. And Biden’s deficit versus Trump on handling immigration and the border is greater than 30 points.

The poll also shows Trump holding a 16-point advantage over Biden on being competent and effective, a reversal from 2020, when Biden was ahead of Trump on this quality by 9 points before defeating him in that election.

And Biden’s approval rating has declined to the lowest level of his presidency in NBC News polling — to 37% — while fewer than 3 in 10 voters approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

All together, these numbers explain why the poll shows Trump leading Biden by 5 points among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 general-election matchup, 47% to 42%. While the result is within the poll’s margin of error, the last year of polling shows a clear shift.

Perhaps the best news in the poll for Biden is that he pulls ahead of Trump when voters are asked about their ballot choice if the former president is convicted of a felony. Yet the margin then is just 2 points in Biden’s favor, also within the margin of error.

That, of course, is why the Democrats are so desperate to get any kind of conviction pinned to Donald Trump – something that is getting harder to do when court dates are on hold while appeals work their way through the system. And even getting a conviction doesn’t mean that Biden has a lead over Trump at this point. In short, all the alarm bells are going off for Team Biden. Trump has a 16 point advantage over Biden when asked about “being competent and effective,” and a 23 point advantage when asked who has the “necessary mental and physical health to be President.” Does anyone think those numbers are going to shift radically in favor of Joe Biden over the next nine months???

Nine months is a lifetime in politics, and Team Trump and the RNC cannot get cocky, especially given their current perilous financial situation. And simply winning back the White House will mean little if Congress remains in Democrat control. But what seems inevitable at this point is that both Trump and Biden are known quantities. There will be little that either of them can say or do to change anyone’s minds at this point. Which means that the election comes down to voter enthusiasm and turnout. And given those South Carolina primary numbers, Team Biden should be sweating about their voter enthusiasm. Can they stir up enough hatred and loathing of Donald Trump to convince their base to stick by Biden, instead of finding a different candidate to support? It’s a risky bet, but it looks like the Democrats are going to put all their chips on making that bet.

Featured image: Wikimedia Commons/cropped/adjusted/CC BY-SA 2.0.