President Trump has been hyper-focused on Venezuela lately – but why?

Back on November 16th, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the Nicolas Maduro-led “Cartel de los Soles” would be designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). This followed the Treasury Department sanctioning the same organization back in July as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist.” So, what exactly is the Cartel de los Soles?

Venezuelans began using the term Cartel de los Soles in the 1990s to refer to high-ranking military officers who had grown rich from drug-running. As corruption expanded nationwide, first under the late President Hugo Chávez and then under Maduro, its use loosely expanded to police and government officials as well as activities like illegal mining and fuel trafficking. The “suns” in the name refer to the epaulettes affixed to the uniforms of high-ranking military officers.

The umbrella term was elevated to a Maduro-led drug-trafficking organization in 2020, when the U.S. Justice Department in Trump’s first term announced the indictment of Venezuela’s leader and his inner circle on narcoterrorism and other charges.

“It is not a group,” said Adam Isaacson, director for defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America organization. “It’s not like a group that people would ever identify themselves as members. They don’t have regular meetings. They don’t have a hierarchy.”

They may not have a hierarchy per se, but Maduro is at the top and intends to stay there, as he most likely lost the 2024 presidential election, but had himself declared the winner anyway. This follows the pattern that occurred during the first Trump administration, where the president welcomed the Venezuelan opposition leader, Juan Guaido, to the State of the Union address in February of 2020, in hopes that Maduro would finally be ousted after recognizing Guaido as the actual leader of Venezuela. Well, then COVID happened, the Biden administration tried schmoozing Maduro for oil, and the Venezuelan strongman has continued to hang on to power.

But when Trump came back into office, there was a noticeable shift in how Venezuela responded. Ric Grenell got six Americans out of the country at the end of January, less than two weeks after Inauguration Day. The FBI reported that Venezuela was using Tren de Aragua to “undermine” public safety and possibly attack dissidents in the United States back in April of this year. Maduro has been singing a different tune lately, as he knows the eyes of the Trump administration are on him. And I mean that quite literally.

Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro breaks into singing John Lennon's 'Imagine' as he talks about US tensions. pic.twitter.com/R270tpM5AF

— The Associated Press (@AP) November 16, 2025

Having the United States Navy on your doorstep and seeing drug boats being blown out of the water does not give anyone license to sing John Lennon’s crappy hippie utopia garbage song, but it seems Maduro knows that his days as president are numbered. On Friday, the New York Times revealed that President Trump made a call to Maduro the week before, though the details of the call were unknown, and no one at the White House wanted to discuss it, though Venezuela confirmed the call had taken place. On Sunday, the Miami Herald reported details of the call – which involved Trump telling Maduro that it was time to go, and Maduro refusing.

The call — which The New York Times reported took place last week — quickly reached an impasse as it became clear that the two sides’ positions were far apart. Washington demanded that Maduro and his top allies leave Venezuela immediately to allow the restoration of democratic rule, while regime leaders proposed handing political control to the opposition but retaining command of the armed forces.

According to the sources, the U.S. message to Maduro was direct: Safe passage would be guaranteed for him, his wife Cilia Flores, and his son only if he agreed to resign right away.

The conversation unfolded amid growing signs that the Trump administration is preparing a more assertive phase of operations targeting Venezuela’s so-called Cartel de los Soles, which Washington says is headed by Maduro and other top officials.

One source said the call, viewed as a last-ditch effort to avoid a direct confrontation, stalled over three issues.

“First, Maduro asked for global amnesty for any crimes he and his group had committed, and that was rejected,” said the source, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

“Second, they asked to retain control of the armed forces — similar to what happened in Nicaragua in ’91 with Violeta Chamorro. In return, they would allow free elections.” The arrangement, the source added, resembled a “Cuban model” that left the Ortega brothers as the real power behind the scenes and ultimately helped pave their return to government. The administration rejected that proposal as well.

The third sticking point was timing: Washington insisted Maduro resign immediately, and Caracas refused.

The alleged call details that are listed are fascinating. Maduro essentially admits that his 2024 election “win” was a farce by offering “free elections” if he could control the military. Since Maduro has used the military to repress any dissidents that challenged him, that is an automatic no-go. The “safe passage” deal that Trump allegedly offered had an expiration date, but Maduro tried to bargain for “global amnesty” (something President Trump could not offer anyway).

It’s obvious Maduro doesn’t want to resign or give up power. And it’s obvious that the president feels like the Maduro regime is unfinished business left over from his first term that he wants to get wrapped up. The question becomes, what will President Trump do about it? Well, he announced on Saturday that Venezuela’s airspace is “closed,” but on Sunday – when he himself confirmed that yes, a phone call with Maduro took place – he told the press to not jump to conclusions.

While speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump said Venezuela is “not a very friendly country” and claimed it has sent criminals, gang members and drug traffickers into the U.S.

On Saturday, Trump told airlines, pilots, drug dealers and human traffickers to “consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY.”

When asked Sunday if the warning meant an airstrike is imminent, Trump said: “Don’t read anything into it.”

Trump also confirmed a report from the New York Times that he spoke on the phone with President Nicolás Maduro, though he offered no details about the conversation.

“I wouldn’t say it went well or badly,” he said. “It was a phone call.”

So, what is going to happen? President Trump is very protective of his image as a “peacemaker” – so would he be willing to actually put troops on the ground in Venezuela to take out Nicolas Maduro?

According to a defense expert familiar with the country’s military and state-linked cartel ties, Maduro and key players in his regime could now face their most serious threat yet.

“I think the operations will start imminently,” former Venezuelan diplomat Vanessa Neumann told Fox News Digital.

“The clearing of the airspace is an indication and a very clear public warning that missiles might be coming to take out command and control infrastructure or retaliatory infrastructure,” Neumann said. “This will not be like breaking a jar into a thousand pieces, this is where you can lift the concentration of power, and it’s easier to manage.”

“The targets have been identified through covert operations over the last several years by people on the ground,” she continued. “So they’re well-mapped. This is a capture-or-kill scenario, but there’s a limit to how many people you can remove quickly.”

On Sunday, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One not to “read anything into” his declaring Venezuela’s airspace closed when asked if a strike was imminent.

“Maduro also doesn’t have that many options, and his military is very weak,” she warned. “You can’t go after 30 people simultaneously, who are spread all around, but certainly high on the list would be Maduro himself.”

Now, Venezuela has built alliances with both Russia and China, but neither country is apparently willing to come to Maduro’s aid.

Beijing and Moscow, Maduro’s two most powerful allies, have previously provided Venezuela with military equipment, financial aid, and army training in the face of American aggression — but both nations have strayed from their usual tactics as they face their own military and economic woes.

While Russia previously deployed two nuclear-capable bombers to Venezuela as a united show of force against the US in 2018, Moscow’s generosity has apparently dried up as it approaches its fourth year of war in Ukraine.

So far, Russia has only provided two oil tankers to help Caracas’ pump its own crude oil for export to China, Vladimir Rouvinski, an international relations professor at Icesi University, told the Wall Street Journal.

“These are small gestures that are not going to be sufficient if the US moves to deadly force on Venezuela,” said Rouvinksi, who tracks Moscow’s engagement in Latin America.

China would be the biggest loser if Maduro’s government falls, as Beijing has provided more than $30 billion in major arms to Caracas since 2000, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

So, does that make it more likely that we are watching an elaborate game of chicken being built up, all to see if Maduro cracks under the pressure? With U.S. naval forces in the area, and the skies being cleared, it may be that President Trump is isolating Venezuela with an unofficial embargo of sorts. The two Russian oil tankers may get through without any issues, but that won’t be enough to keep the money flowing in. And if neither Russia or China is willing to stick their necks out for Maduro, how much longer can he hang on to his presidency? It’s hard to not want to “read into it,” despite President Trump’s admonition. This is one situation where removing Maduro isn’t so much “regime change,” as it is allowing the rightfully elected leaders to assume office. There would be no transition where the United States would have to control the country, as the opposition leaders are already there and waiting. I guess they are waiting with the rest of us now, to see who blinks first in this standoff.

Featured image: President Donald Trump on September 23, 2025, official White House Photo by Daniel Torok, cropped, public domain