The United States Senate, should it change hands back to Republican control, would be a huge protective bulwark against a (God forbid) Harris presidency.

While all eyes are watching the presidential race returns, getting the Senate back under solid Republican leadership would be a huge boon. As of 9 pm Eastern time, a 50/50 split has already been achieved for the Republicans with the win in West Virginia, where it was all but guaranteed that Governor Jim Justice was going to win his election to the Senate, replacing Democrat Joe Manchin, who had decided to not run again after becoming “independent” last May (though he still caucused with the Democrats). West Virginia is a deep red state, so Justice’s win was nearly a foregone conclusion.

With a 50/50 split now in hand, the question, for Republicans, becomes holding the current seats and flipping at least one more, if not more. And it is looking very good.

As of 9:48pm ET, Republicans have a 98% chance to control the Senate. pic.twitter.com/rWMaldtrrS

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 6, 2024

First, let’s look at the incumbents. Many Republican incumbents, like Rick Scott of Florida, were easily victorious in their re-election races. One of the incumbents that was supposedly targeted and in danger was Ted Cruz of Texas. Well, Cruz has hung on and won re-election.

Cruz wins. The Senate is won.

House looking good. Republicans have already had a good night without even knowing how the rust belt and the presidential election turns out.

— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) November 6, 2024

This is going to be a long night for ballot counting, but there are positive trends for Republican challengers. Let’s look at some of the races where Republicans stand a better-than-average chance of flipping the Senate seat.

Ohio: Bertie Moreno challenges Sherrod Brown
The numbers are looking very good for Republican Bertie Moreno. While the race has not been called yet, Moreno is starting to pull away, with 68% of the vote counted. Brown has already served three terms in the Senate, and with junior Senator J.D. Vance possibly becoming vice president, Ohio could potentially end up with two brand-new Senators in short order.

Montana: Tim Sheehy may trounce Jon Tester
Tester, the Democrat incumbent, was so desperate to hang onto his seat that he put out ads that lauded his votes AGAINST Joe Biden. The polls indicated that Sheehy was up by 7 points – we shall see if that bears out as the votes are counted.

Nevada: Sam Brown deserves to beat Jacky Rosen
This race may be determined by who wins the presidential election in Nevada. Sam Brown is an impressive candidate, and while the polls have him down by over 4 points to incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen, Donald Trump is currently favored in the Nevada polls. Could Brown benefit from a downballot effect?
https://twitter.com/CaptainSamBrown/status/1853599306789650812
Can Brown pull off an upset if Trump wins the state? Keep your fingers crossed.

Pennsylvania: Dave McCormick ran a great campaign against Bob Casey
This is one of those races where an excellent candidate should win against the rubber stamp in the Senate. Bob Casey has already served three terms, and he has run on his family connections for years (his father was a famously pro-life Democrat governor of Pennsylvania). Dave McCormick has a good chance to oust Casey – and IF Trump wins the state, the downballot effect will definitely help McCormick.

Wisconsin: Eric Hovde could beat Tammy Baldwin
Another tight race in a swing state could result in another incumbent Senator being voted out.

Just in

What will Waukesha County tell us about the outcome of this election?

Eric Hovde with more votes out of Waukesha County than Trump with 75% of the vote counted.

Kamala Harris with more votes in Waukesha County than Tammy Baldwin. pic.twitter.com/AJVeqtBmHl

— Charles Benson (@CharlesBenson4) November 6, 2024

If even two of these races turn out positively for Republicans, that means 52 votes and slightly safer control of the Senate (which will be under new leadership, as Mitch McConnell is planning on stepping down from his leadership position), this will be a HUGE victory for Republicans, should the presidential race not go to Trump. Compared to the events of 2022, when the “red wave” did not appear and too many Republican candidates for Senate ended up faltering, this is a fantastic reversal of fortunes for the GOP.

Could the White House be next???

UPDATE 11 PM ET
It’s official – the GOP has 51 seats with Bernie Moreno ousting Sherrod Brown!

Decision Desk HQ projects Bernie Moreno (R) wins the US Senate election in Ohio.#DecisionMade: 10:50 PM EDT

Follow live results here:https://t.co/IWJYuBuYFK pic.twitter.com/HdRucpiJfK

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 6, 2024

Who will be next?

Featured image: original Victory Girls art by Darleen Click