President Volodymyr Zelensky did not have the weekend he was planning on.

As time has gone on after the Oval Office fireworks and his interview with Bret Baier on Friday, it became clear that the Ukrainian president had completely misread his own influence and was high on his own supply. According to Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, who had been involved in the rare minerals deal, said that Zelensky came in still trying to argue for more concessions – apparently after meeting with senators, mostly Democrats, who may have egged him on to push for his idea of “security guarantees.” Lutnick says it would be “dreadful” if that was true, but is clear that Zelensky came in with more on his agenda than signing the deal and having lunch.

Lutnick replied: “No, so we were 40 minutes before the cameras came in, and 45 minutes before the meltdown, and the fact was, Zelensky never stopped asking for, you know — ‘I will give no concessions. They have got to leave my land. I want reparations of $300 billion. And I want the United States to give me security guarantees while they’re at war with Russia.’”

The secretary then referred to the moment when Trump told Zelensky that he was “gambling with World War III” by not doing more to seek peace with Russia.

“And that’s why the president called it World War III. ‘You’re gambling with World War III.’ We’re not going to give you security guarantees while you’re at war with Russia. It’s just ridiculous. His requests were ridiculous. They were not reasonable,” Lutnick said. “The president let it go for a while, you know, was very — he was there to make peace. Our president is there to make peace, as he said, end the death. And Zelensky was not there to make peace. He was there to strike some sort of make-believe bargain that he had in his mind. And, eventually that just ran its course. And Donald Trump said, I can’t take this nonsense anymore, and made it crystal clear he’s the peacemaker. And if Zelensky’s not interested in peace, then he should go home and think about it.”

The video of what happened in the Oval Office has now been analyzed to pieces, but the bottom line is that Trump now sees the war in Ukraine as a war of attrition, not unlike Vietnam. Russia has been halted, but not completely stopped. Ukraine has neither the manpower or the arms to continue on, unless they get financial supports – and what Zelensky wants, which is boots on the ground – to continue. There are only two ways that this war ends – with a ceasefire leading to a peace deal, or with total victory for one side. Zelensky wants the latter, and after the Oval Office blowup, seemed to think that Europe would be handing him troops. He claimed that Europe would help finance “a big army” – but where is he going to get more soldiers? Ukraine already has a draft, and they still lack the numbers to achieve his real goal of driving Russia out of Donbas and Crimea.

Yes, in an ideal world, Putin would stop being an amoral bastard and leave Ukraine. He’s not going to do that. That reduces the choices to compromising with Putin to end the war in the stalemate that it is currently in, or fighting to get rid of Putin. It’s obvious that Ukraine can’t do that on its own. Zelensky really thought that he could get Europe to back him up, especially after they all patted him on the back for taking on the Bad Orange Man, and making his position crystal clear in a long thread on X. In it, Zelensky makes two wild assertions/demands:

Europe is ready for contingencies and to help fund our large army. We also need the U.S. role in defining security guarantees—what kind, what volume, and when. Once these guarantees are in place, we can talk with Russia, Europe, and the U.S. about diplomacy. War alone is too long, and we don’t have enough weapons to push them out entirely.

I want the U.S. to stand more firmly on our side. This is not just a war between our two countries; Russia brought this war onto our territory and into our homes. They are wrong because they disrespected our territorial integrity.

All Ukrainians want to hear a strong U.S. position on our side. It’s understandable the U.S. might look for dialogue with Putin. But the U.S. has always spoken about ‘peace through strength.’ And together we can take strong steps against Putin.

In order to save his version of Ukraine – which has not existed since 2014, after Barack Obama promised “flexibility” via verbal message to Putin before the 2012 election, and then Putin took Crimea two years later and Obama didn’t lift a finger to stop him – it seems Zelensky wants Europe and NATO to go to war in Ukraine, and wants the United States to pay the bills and provide troops.

Two things can be true at once. Putin is a monstrous dictator who started this war. And Zelensky isn’t going to get Donbas and Crimea back. It’s unfair and wrong, but Ukraine can’t demand “peace through strength” when they want to use someone else’s strength for their version of peace.

I kind of think you can think (a) Putin is an evil monster and (b) prefer to see him lose while also (c) preferring Zelensky (d) without buying hagiographic accounts of him and (e) being skeptical that (b) is a plausible outcome. Not sure there’s even tension between those views

— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) March 2, 2025

Remember how Zelensky was so sure Europe was going to give him the funding or troops for an army? The European leaders spent a lot of time patting him on the back, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer actually said that British troops would be on the ground… AFTER there is a peace deal.

BREAKING: 🚨 Prime Minister Keir Starmer announces intention to put UK "boots on the ground and planes in the air" to protect a peace deal in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/iQgZEJO7qh

— E X X ➠A L E R T S (@ExxAlerts) March 2, 2025

Starmer said Europe was “doubling down in our support” of Ukraine as he announced that Britain would donate a further £1.6 billion in export finance to the country so it can by 5,000 air defence missiles to be made in Belfast.

The PM said: “We are at a crossroads in history. This is not a moment for more talk, it is time to act, time to step up and lead and unite around a new plan for a just and enduring peace.”

Declaring that any peace deal “must be backed by strength”, Starmer said: “We will go further to develop a coalition of the willing to defend a deal in Ukraine and to guarantee the peace.

“Not every nation will feel able to contribute but that can’t mean that we sit back. Instead, those willing will intensify planning now with real urgency.

“The UK is prepared to back this with boots on the ground and planes in the air, together with others. Europe must do the heavy lifting.”

The key there is that this all happens AFTER a peace deal, and one that the Europeans want the United States to agree to (presumably for financial backing, as the British are only loaning, not giving, additional funds beyond the missile purchases). I mean, if Europe wishes to provide the security, best of luck with that. Starmer may have praised Zelensky publicly, but privately he reportedly told him to go fix the rift with Donald Trump. Zelensky apparently took that to mean that he should sign the rare minerals deal NOW, and informed the media that he was ready to sign it. As has been reported, the Cabinet of Ministers had already approved the very Ukrainian-friendly deal, and Zelensky was supposed to sign it as a formality. Does anyone really think that the Trump administration will accept this deal now? There has been near radio silence on that from Team Trump, other than the cabinet members still just in disbelief that Zelensky behaved the way he did.

Zelensky is riding a bit of a high, and he’s hoping that if Europe backs him, then the United States will have to agree.

As a result of these days, we see clear support from Europe. Even more unity, even more willingness to cooperate.

Everyone is united on the main issue – for peace to be real, we need real security guarantees. And this is the position of all of Europe – the entire continent. The… pic.twitter.com/inGxdO8jQz

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) March 3, 2025

The tweet conveniently only gives the translation for about half of the video. The complete video, with provided translation, says:

Dear Ukrainians! We are returning home.

As a result of these days, we see clear support from Europe. Even more unity, even more willingness to cooperate.

Everyone is united on the main issue – for peace to be real, we need real security guarantees. And this is the position of all of Europe – the entire continent. The United Kingdom, the European Union, Norway, Türkiye. Today we coordinated our positions, there will be many meetings and joint efforts in the coming days and weeks. There will be diplomacy for peace, and for the sake of all of us standing together – Ukraine, the whole of Europe, and necessarily America.

Of course, we understand the importance of America, and we are grateful for all the support we’ve received from the United States. There has not been a day when we haven’t felt grateful. Because this is gratitude for the preservation of our independence: our resilience in Ukraine is based on what our partners do for us and for their own security.

What we need is peace, not endless war. And that’s why we say security guarantees are the key to this.

In the near future, all of us in Europe will shape our common positions – the lines we must achieve and the lines we cannot compromise on. These positions will be presented to our partners in the United States. Robust and lasting peace, and the right agreement on the end of the war are truly our shared priority.

And, of course, I want to thank you, all of you – everyone in our beloved Ukraine who feels how much unity matters and how history changes when millions defend the dignity of their country. Our warriors on the frontline, all our people – I am proud of you. I want to thank all of you. Thank you very much. Glory to Ukraine!

At this point, if Zelensky thinks that Europe can negotiate a better deal, then they should probably go ahead with that. The problem is that Russia is unlikely to come to the table without the United States present, and everyone knows that. Russia is doing a little wish projection right now, with some Kremlin officials hoping for “alignment” between Russia and the United States. Trump may be exasperated with Zelensky, but he isn’t going to give Russia everything that they want, either.

Trump has been open about stopping the killing and wanting peace from the start. No amount of pleading from Zelensky is going to induce him to put American troops in Ukraine. Even the Democrats, who are firmly on Zelensky’s side, would not agree to that. If Europe chooses to further support Ukraine in fighting on, they are welcome to go for it. More people will die. Ukraine will be further dragged down in an endless war. Russia is the honey badger who doesn’t give a f**k how many of their soldiers die. Ukraine can’t outlast them without help. Europe’s help is conditional on a peace deal.

So, how many more people will die before Zelensky – and Europe – realizes that Donald Trump was right? Hopefully it will happen before World War III begins.

Featured image: original Victory Girls art by Darleen Click