Will Senate Democrats actually pull the trigger on a government shutdown? Minority Leader Chuck Schumer seems to be telling his caucus that it’s happening.

As we covered, the House Republicans, unified save for Representative Massie, but picking up one Democrat (Representative Jared Golden of Maine) along the way, voted for the Trump-backed continuing resolution on Tuesday. This put the ball squarely in the Senate Democrats’ court. The bill requires 60 votes. The Republicans only have 53 seats in the Senate, so in order to pass this CR, Democrats will have to join in. Currently, 52 Republicans (Senator Rand Paul has said he will vote no) and one Democrat (Senator John Fetterman) have said that they would pass the House’s CR in order to keep the government open through the end of September. With the rest of the Senate Democrats stuck between a rock and a hard place, House Democrats began mounting a pressure campaign. After all, their vote is over, and they can now insist on purity tests for their fellow Democrats.

Everyone needs to call their Dem Senator right now. They are starting to cave.

Tell them:
1. Vote NO on Cloture
AND
2. Vote NO on the Republican spending bill.

Don’t let them pivot to reconciliation. GOP doesn’t need Dem votes on that and they know it.

TODAY is the showdown. https://t.co/aeim95XiA1

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) March 12, 2025

As Nancy Pelosi once famously said, a glass of water with a “D” after its name could win AOC’s congressional district. Telling Senate Democrats to follow her demands costs her absolutely nothing. Those Democrats, on the other hand, have a lot to lose if they blindly follow AOC’s advice. And they know it. The Senate Democrat leadership would like to have a 30 day extension on the current CR to buy themselves some time. But Republicans absolutely don’t have to accept that compromise, and Democrats know it – because Speaker Johnson made sure of it.

The 30-day CR, however, is almost certainly not viable. And while Senate Democrats said Wednesday they won’t vote to advance Republicans’ bill, pressure on them will only increase.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) sent the House home after the chamber passed the GOP six-month CR mostly along party lines on Tuesday. The House isn’t slated to be back until March 24, leaving Senate Democrats few options beyond eating the GOP’s stopgap measure or allowing the government to shut down.

Neither is palatable to them.

“They’re both horrible outcomes,” Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) said ahead of Wednesday’s luncheon. “I went to sleep last night. I stayed up late and really thought about it. Had one decision in mind. Woke up and realized, ‘No, I don’t. That’s not the right [decision].’”

“It’s just hard,” he continued. “This is the most frustrating issue that I’ve seen since I’ve been here.”

“There’s no easy call,” said Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), who announced later on Wednesday that he opposes the House bill.

What also spooks members is the unknown of what comes after a shutdown starts. Trump is well known for being unpredictable, and how he handles a shutdown is giving Democrats heartburn.

A shutdown would put the Office of Management and Budget in charge of determining what personnel are considered essential and nonessential during its course. Senate Republicans could also hypothetically force vote after vote to reopen the government, giving them further headaches in the process.

“It’s the devil that we know against the devil that we don’t know,” Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) said.

And if that shutdown happens, and the Office of Management and Budget is in charge…

A government shutdown will put Russ Vought, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, in charge. That is as close as America will ever come to having Ron Swanson in charge, and it is beautiful.

— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) March 13, 2025

This could be an amazing popcorn-worthy moment. No wonder it’s giving Senate Democrats a potential migraine.

But on Wednesday evening, Schumer apparently had made up his mind. He attempted to frame it as the Republicans don’t have the votes for cloture (and conveniently left out Jared Golden’s vote in the House, which technically made the vote bipartisan), but they never did. Needing 60 votes means Democrats would have to vote for the CR – and if Schumer does not let the vote go forward, then the shutdown is on him.

🚨BREAKING🚨

Senator Chuck Schumer: "Republicans do not have the votes in the Senate to invoke cloture on the House CR…" pic.twitter.com/pm2W515iXZ

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) March 12, 2025

“Funding the government should be a bipartisan effort, but Republicans chose a partisan path, drafting their [continuing resolution] without any input — any input — from congressional Democrats,” Schumer (D-NY) said on the Senate floor Wednesday.

“Because of that, Republicans do not have the votes in the Senate to invoke cloture on the House CR. Our caucus is unified on a clean [CR through April 11] that will keep the government open and give Congress time to negotiate bipartisan legislation that can pass.”

So Schumer will block the vote – by allowing Democrats to FILIBUSTER. You know, that EVIL AWFUL HORRIBLE THING that Chuck Schumer hated and wanted to get rid of just three years ago. Here he is in January 2022, demanding that Republicans “stop abusing the rules” afforded to the minority party, or he would get rid of the filibuster.

My my my, how the tables have turned. Shoe’s on the other foot, huh, Chuck? You flaming hypocrite.

The mainstream media, of course, is eager to try and frame this as the Democrats’ attempt to stop DOGE. Good luck with that.

A-plus plus framing of the Schumer Shutdown by ABC's Mary Bruce: "OF COURSE NOBODY WANTS" a shutdown, but Democrats reluctantly force one in order to curtail DOGE. pic.twitter.com/Q7Ta645DX4

— Jorge Bonilla (@BonillaJL) March 13, 2025

Republicans could easily end up with several wins in a row here. First, Chuck Schumer will end up owning a shutdown by refusing to allow a vote on the CR. If the media or Democrats (but I repeat myself) come back and try to frame it as the GOP’s or Trump’s doing, it is simple to point out that the House passed the CR, and the fault lies in the Senate. Having 52 Republicans and 1 Democrat willing to vote for the CR that’s currently on the table takes the wind out of the narrative’s sails. Second, with OMB in charge and sending people home, it gives DOGE a lot of time to go hunting and pecking without those nonessential government bureaucrats looking over their shoulder and trying to throw up roadblocks. Third, Senate Majority Leader John Thune could indeed keep calling the Senate to vote on the CR, and that would put the Democrats firmly in the role as the ones keeping the government shut down. And finally, the Democrats will end up as the butt of Trump’s posts and comments – and they HATE that.

There’s still time for Chuck Schumer to do an about-face and decide that the political cost is simply too much, and allow the vote on the CR to pass. That would mean putting up with some hysterical House leftists, but shouldn’t Schumer be able to handle that? Or is it my imagination, that with Nancy Pelosi no longer running the House with an iron fist, Hakeem Jeffries lacks her spine and will to keep the caucus in line? Couldn’t Schumer tell Jeffries to keep the House Democrats quiet, in order to avoid the optics of rifts in the Democrat party? Regardless of what happens next, it is breathtakingly clear that the Democrats are both rudderless and leaderless, and their only plan at the moment is to simply oppose the Bad Orange Man on everything. This time, though, that opposition could end up costing them – and they’re not used to paying the price.

Featured image: original Victory Girls art by Darleen Click