If Carly Fiorina does indeed decide to run, it’s looking like Barbara Boxer might just have problems with getting reelected.

Democrat Barbara Boxer’s quest for a fourth term in the U.S. Senate may give Californians a chance to pass judgment on Washington in the Obama era: Do voters approve of the early performance of the Democratic president and Congress? Or is it time to restore more power to Republicans, in this case to a controversial former Silicon Valley CEO making her first run for elective office?

What looks increasingly likely is that Boxer will be in for the re-election fight of her career. While she has yet to announce her candidacy, all signs point to a run by Republican Carly Fiorina, the charismatic ex-chief of Hewlett-Packard who was ousted from her job in 2005 and last year served as a top surrogate for John McCain’s presidential bid.

Fiorina would bring a combination of traits to the race never faced before by Boxer: She is a woman with the wherewithal to pump millions of her own dollars into her candidacy and probably raise millions more from others. And historically, the election after a president first takes office has not been kind to the party in charge at the White House. Exhibit A is 1994, when Democrats lost control of Congress halfway into President Bill Clinton’s first term.

In this case, analysts say, the 2010 California Senate election is expected to be at least partly a referendum on the policies of Obama and the Democratic Congress — from health care to immigration to climate change. And as chairman of the Senate committee shaping global warming legislation in the coming months, Boxer will have little distance from the president — for better or worse.

… Those uncertainties notwithstanding, Boxer enters the race a solid favorite, Duffy and others say. With three terms under her belt in the Senate — going on 18 years — Boxer, 68, is both a known quantity and a staunch Democrat in a state with a growing Democratic voter edge.

She is also known as an aggressive fundraiser and campaigner and will no doubt take the fight to Fiorina, 54, whose business career and personal background have never been subjected to the scrutiny of a statewide political campaign.

During last year’s presidential race, Fiorina remarked that she is personally anti-abortion and defended companies, including H-P, that sent jobs overseas to take advantage of lower taxes. She was also forced to answer questions about the severance package she received — worth tens of millions of dollars — when she was ousted at H-P in 2005 after a stormy six-year run at the iconic Silicon Valley company.

Fiorina can expect questions about those issues, and many others, to rise to a crescendo if she jumps in the race. Boxer’s camp already is characterizing Fiorina’s views as “right wing.”

While the article tries to downplay the potential risks Boxer may be facing to get reelected, I think she has a lot more to be worried about than is let on here. The point about Obama is absolutely true — as Obama’s approval ratings rise and fall, so will the ratings of Democrats in Congress. Unfortunately, approval ratings are falling, and try as the media might to paint angry constituents as racist, angry, astroturfed mobs, come election time those constituents will be coming home to roost, so to speak. And unless there are some major policy changes, it’s unlikely that people are suddenly going to be happy about massive government expansion and overspending.

A benefit that Carly Fiorina has, no matter how much bashing Barbara Boxer may do, is that she comes from a strong business background. And if the economy stays the way it is — more importantly, if the government keeps spending the way it is — people are going to be wanting to hear from someone who has experience in business and outside of politics. Add to all of this that California is a MESS, and voters will likely want to be voting for some real change, rather than an incumbent liberal who’s spent 18 years in the Senate.

Hat Tip: Ace of Spades