The drama may not be completely over in Russia, but the immediate threat of a coup by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group mercenary army is over. But why?

The credit, officially, is being given to Belarus president and strongman Alexander Lukashenko, for allegedly brokering a deal that allowed Prigozhin to go into exile in Belarus, and excuse the other Wagner groupies from prosecution. However, given that Lukashenko is most definitely a Putin puppet, and has little capacity for independent thought outside of what he needs to do to keep control in his own country, the likelihood that he offered Prigozhin exile without Putin’s approval is zero. Lukashenko’s actions here simply don’t line up with what we have seen from him for years.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko reportedly negotiated the deal, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Saturday that Lukashenko “has been acquainted with Mr. Prigozhin for a long time, at least 20 years.”

But Prigozhin’s maverick ways are at odds with Lukashenko’s harsh repression of dissent and independent media.”

In power since 1994, the leader who is often called “Europe’s last dictator” launched a brutal crackdown on 2020 protests against his rule. Hundreds were sentenced to lengthy prison terms, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski.”

Under Lukashenko, Belarus became almost umbilically tied to neighboring Russia, agreeing to form a still-in-progress “union state.” Although Belarus’ army is not known to have taken part in Russia’s war on Ukraine, the country allows Russia to base troops there that have fought in Ukraine and made a deal this year for deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons. Lukashenko is a vehement ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.”

Prigozhin’s stance toward the Kremlin leader is murkier. Even as his fighters moved swiftly toward Moscow on Saturday, Prigozhin did not criticize Putin directly and instead claimed his aim was to oust the Russian defense establishment, which he has denounced as corrupt and incompetent, complaining that it undermined his forces fighting in Ukraine.”

Hmmm. Well, there might be a very simple answer for why Prigozhin decided to quit the advance to Moscow and accept exile to Belarus.

Russian intelligence services threatened to harm the families of Wagner leaders before Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his advance on Moscow, according to UK security sources.”

The analysis offers clues into the mystery of why Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader, called off his mutinous march on Moscow on Saturday just hours before reaching the capital.”

There remains speculation about what formal deal was struck, if any. The Kremlin said on Saturday that Prigozhin would head to Belarus in exchange for a pardon from charges of treason.”

And apparently the Wagner rank-and-file are pretty furious with Prigozhin.

Meanwhile, members of Russia’s convict army have issued threats against Prigozhin, claiming he betrayed them by abandoning the Kremlin coup attempt.”

A video posted online by the prisoners-turned-fighters accused Prigozhin of “cowardice”, saying his supporters had been “double crossed” and now faced retribution.”

One of the Storm-Z soldiers could be heard saying that Prigozhin had “promised everything” to them and then “turned the steering wheel in the other direction”.

As Kim noted yesterday, Prigozhin needs to stay away from windows while in Belarus, but if his mercenaries are feeling betrayed and pissed off, then there really is no safe place for him to go.

Lukashenko will do whatever Putin wants him to do. If that means holding Prigozhin indefinitely, he will. If that means Prigozhin has a clumsy moment and falls out a window, oh well. If that means disgruntled Wagner groupies are allowed to pay him a visit in Belarus and he ends up dead, oh well. Having Prigozhin under Lukashenko’s control is as good as having him under Putin’s control, and if something bad happens to him, Putin’s hands are – well, not clean, but he didn’t have to break a sweat, either. Having a puppet like Lukashenko makes that very convenient.

Now, it could be that Putin was caught completely off-guard by Prigozhin’s move. Prigozhin apparently expected more support from Russian security services, and as the Telegraph reported, the Wagner Group numbers weren’t big enough to go it alone – reportedly, the group only had 8,000 members. Large enough to be a dangerously effective mercenary force, not large enough to take down Vladimir Putin.

The moral of this story is that only the man (or woman) with nothing and no one to lose can attempt to dislodge Putin from power. If the intelligence from the UK is true – and anyone who has looked at Putin’s hold on Russia should believe him to be this ruthless – then it would explain easily why Prigozhin stopped in his tracks, gave up control of his mercenary army, and was willing to go into exile. However, no one should be surprised if he turns up dead very soon, or if his family turns up dead. There are no “good guys” in this scenario. Putin, Prigozhin, Lukashenko – these are all men motivated by power and control. It turns out that Putin, despite whatever is going on with his health and his image inside Russia, has been playing the game long enough to know how to control people – threaten those they care about.

Is anyone really shocked that the answer could potentially be that simple?

Featured image: Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2010 via the Government of the Russian Federation on Wikimedia Commons, cropped, Attribution 3.0 Unported (CC BY 3.0) and Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)