The last couple of weeks have not been good ones for Iran’s “Supreme Leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Despite what some media outlets would have people believe, the Iranian power structure has been dealt a devastating blow – possibly a deadly one. Reports are out that in the initial strike, Israel took out “29 officers with the rank of brigadier general and higher.” A reported 14 nuclear scientists are dead. And despite conflicting reports on just how much damage was done to the nuclear facilities in Iran (though Iran’s foreign ministry admits that these sites were “badly damaged”), President Trump himself said on Wednesday that Israeli agents went to Fordow to confirm the damage.

Trump: Israeli agents went to Fordow after the US bombed it, “and they said it was total obliteration.” pic.twitter.com/POrecvjdHQ

— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) June 25, 2025

This, combined with the IDF’s admission that their commandos have been deep in Iran, has to leave the mullahs feeling slightly sick to their stomachs. Iran’s military leadership has been decimated. The nuclear program is now bombed to smithereens – and if not that, then almost certainly inaccessible and unusable (kind of hard to have an underground facility without AIR being pumped in somehow) – and who wants to be a nuclear scientist in Iran at the moment? This isn’t just the culmination of twelve days of war – this has been ongoing since October 7, 2023. Iran paid and used Hamas, and now Hamas is clinging to survival with the remaining hostages as their human shields. Hezbollah is pretty well blown up. Who wants to be a proxy for Iran now? Russia and China both patted Iran on the head and told them, “best of luck” as they sat this out.

To put it bluntly, Iran is very alone, very defanged, and very shaky right now. You would think that Ayatollah Khamenei would be front and center, rallying the proverbial troops and all that. Instead, his last post on X (as of this post’s publication) was this last Monday, and it was a typical “Iran will never surrender” one sentence message. There has been no – ahem – “proof of life” from Khamenei. And his absence is getting attention.

Even the New York Times is asking where Khamenei is right now.

Mr. Khamenei, who has the final say on key decisions in Iran, has not been seen publicly or heard from in nearly a week, despite the extraordinary crisis that his country has faced.

In the last few days alone, the United States bombed three of Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at an American base in Qatar, and Iran and Israel agreed to a cease-fire that went into effect Tuesday morning.

Through it all, Mr. Khamenei — who officials say has been sheltering at a bunker and refraining from electronic communication to prevent assassination attempts against him — has remained absent, issuing no public statements or recorded messages.

His absence has surprised and unnerved everyone from political insiders to the general public.

Mohsen Khalifeh, the editor in chief of Khaneman, a daily newspaper focused on real-estate development, said in an interview that Mr. Khamenei’s “days-long absence has made all of us who love him very worried.”

Acknowledging a possibility that two weeks ago would have seemed unthinkable, Mr. Khalifeh added that if Mr. Khamenei were dead, his funeral procession would be “the most glorious and historic.”

As the supreme leader, Mr. Khamenei has the last word on all major state matters. As the commander in chief of the armed forces, he would be expected to approve any military decision as significant as the attack on the American base or the cease-fire deal with Israel.

The cease-fire agreement, requested by President Trump and mediated by the emir of Qatar, appears to have been brokered swiftly. Yet senior military commanders and government officials have been evasive about whether they have met or spoken with Mr. Khamenei in recent days.

His public silence has led to a flurry of speculation and doubt: How involved has Mr. Khamenei been in the most recent decisions, given the many potential difficulties or delays in reaching him? Is he still supervising the country on a daily basis? Is he injured, sick or even alive?

There are other theories at play, too.

Where’s Khamenei? Rumours are swirling in Iran that he is unwell. Senior IRGC officers reportedly conspired to withhold from him full information about the extent of the damage that Israel did. They feared further harming his brittle constitution. pic.twitter.com/YZyXXKDFXG

— Mike (@Doranimated) June 25, 2025

Now, one or part of the theories may be true. Khamenei is 86 years old, and not in great health. Discussions about his replacement have been ongoing for two years, but obviously no choice has been announced (that person would immediately move up on the list of Israel’s targets). He could be so well hidden that decisions are being made without him, or what leadership is left thinks they can’t take the risk of potentially revealing his location. He could be sick. He could have been injured. He could be so freaking embarrassed by the pounding they just took from Israel that he’s hiding under his bed in shame. Anything could have happened. Tweets are not proof of life – they’re proof that someone has his login and password (and as we know from Joe Biden, staff can say a lot of things in your name on X these days).

The one thing that everyone seems to agree on is that at some point, Khamenei will have to appear in public – if he still can. Differing factions are vying for control, says the NYT, but Khamenei is the glue keeping them together. If he is gone or incapacitated, there will be trouble.

Sanam Vakil, the director for the Middle East and North Africa at Chatham House, a research group, said that Mr. Khamenei’s absence was notable and a sign that Iran’s leaders were being “extremely careful and security-minded.”

“If we don’t see Khamenei by Ashura,” an important religious procession for Shiite Muslims observed in Iran in early July this year, Ms. Vakil said, “that is a bad sign. He has to show his face.”

Honestly, I fully expect some kind of video message to be broadcast/tweeted out soon, because even if Khamenei is ill or injured, wouldn’t the Iranian leadership not have some generic “death to Israel/death to America” messaging pre-taped for a contingency like this? Or were they really NOT prepared for a scenario like this? Could the leadership have never seriously gamed out what they should do if Israel, or any other country, took them on?

Ashura will land on either July 5th or 6th this year, depending on location. That means by next weekend, Khamenei will need to poke his head out (and maybe hold up a newspaper to prove the date) to show Iran, and the world, that he’s still in charge. And if he doesn’t? Well, that will certainly make things even more dicey for the mullahs, won’t it?

UPDATE 9:30 AM PDT
Well, well, well – it seems Khamenei’s ears started burning.

Iran’s humiliated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came out of hiding Thursday to ludicrously claim victory over Israel and having “delivered a hand slap to America’s face” during his first address since the “total obliteration” of his nuclear weapons facilities.

Khamenei said he was “victorious” in the 12-day war despite losing years of progress on its nuclear programs, including more than a dozen of his leading scientists being killed and the “obliteration” of three nuclear enrichment facilities.

“The Islamic Republic was victorious and, in retaliation, delivered a hand slap to America’s face,” Khamenei said Thursday, in clear defiance of reality.

This murderous thug who is still hiding in a bunker, gave his first statement. Khamenei declared "victory" over Israel and America. He says U.S. strikes achieved nothing, Iran "slapped" America's face. pic.twitter.com/eKfK6LhU2g

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) June 26, 2025

The English X account repeated these same lines from his speech, though the Arabic language account (once translated) admits that there have been “martyrs.”

I honor the memory of the dear martyrs of recent events.
The martyred commanders, the martyred scientists who were truly and justly valuable to the Islamic Republic and served it, and today, God willing, they receive the reward for their outstanding services in the presence of the Almighty.

Khamenei also claims that Iran “practically knocked out and crushed” Israel, and that Iran also “attacked and inflicted damage on the Al-Udeid Air Base” – you know, the United States base in Qatar that Iran gave the heads-up to about the incoming missiles. The “Baghdad Bob” vibes are quite strong. Also, it’s quite clear that Khamenei is either lying through his teeth, or truly believes that Iran won. I tend toward the former, but also can’t ignore that he may have been deliberately not informed of just how extensive the damage is. This is not a well man.
https://twitter.com/SasanRebels/status/1938224417378865415
Meanwhile, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan “Razin” Caine gave a press conference this morning where they detailed – with video – the damage done by the MOPs at Fordow.

Caine revealed that the United States military had developed the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, better known as bunker buster bombs, more than 15 years ago, specifically with Iran’s nuclear program in mind.

He showed several military graphics and videos showcasing exactly how the bombers were to inflict extensive damage at Iran’s Fordo nuclear site.

“All six weapons at each vent at Fordo went exactly where they were intended to go. A bomb has three effects: it causes damage, blast fragmentation, and overpressure,” Caine said. “In this case, the primary kill mechanism in the mission space was a mix of overpressure and blast ripping through the open tunnels and destroying critical hardware.“

The U.S. strike on Fordo primarily focused on two ventilation shafts as the “primary point of entry into the mission space,” Caine said.

“In the days preceding the attack against Fordo, the Iranians attempted to cover the shafts with concrete to try to prevent an attack,” he said. “I won’t share the specific dimensions of the concrete cap, but you should know that we know what the dimensions of those concrete caps were. The planners had to account for this. They accounted for everything.”

“The cap was forcibly removed by the first weapon, and the main shaft was uncovered. Weapons two, three, four, five were tasked to enter the main shaft, move down into the complex at greater than 1,000 feet per second, and explode in the mission space. Weapon number six was designed as a flex weapon to allow us to cover if one of the preceding jets or one of the preceding weapons did not work. There were six on each side.”

Yeah, I’m going with Caine and Hegseth’s assessment over the frail old guy who is insisting that they pimp-slapped the United States and smooshed Israel, while still hiding in his bunker and looking like he hasn’t seen daylight in weeks.

Featured image: original Victory Girls art by Darleen Click