This may be a case of not counting chickens before they hatch, or any hostage until they are out of Gaza.
However, there is reason for hope. The reports are coming out of Qatar that Hamas has agreed to a “draft” of a hostage release deal that would include a ceasefire, but bring home 33 hostages from over a year of captivity.
Hamas has accepted a draft agreement for a cease-fire after 15 months of war that would soon see the release of an initial group of 33 hostages, officials involved in the talks said Tuesday.
Israeli officials said Monday night that they were in the “advanced stages of the negotiations” with the terror group, but details of the deal have not yet been finalized, the Times of Israel reported.
Qatar, a mediator in the talks, said Israel and Hamas were at the “closest point” yet to compromising.
As always, the devil is in the details. This is allegedly a deal that will happen in three phases.
It would begin with the gradual release of 33 hostages over six weeks, starting with women, children, the elderly and the wounded.
Israel, in return, would release potentially hundreds of imprisoned Palestinian women and children, according to the report.
The release would include five female Israeli soldiers who would be exchanged for 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 convicted militants who are serving life sentences.
During the first phase, there would be a surge in humanitarian aid as Israeli forces withdraw from population centers and Palestinians start returning to their homes in northern Gaza.
By the end of the first phase, all civilians held captive — both alive and dead — will have been released, according to the report.
That is a steep price to pay, especially for the five female soldiers (who have no doubt been brutalized beyond imagining). And the time frame is certainly stretched out in order to benefit Hamas the most. Do they even know where every single one of these 33 hostages are? Are there reductions in released Palestinians if a body is returned instead of a living person? (Probably not, or Hamas wouldn’t have agreed to the deal.)
The second phase gets even trickier, mostly because those details haven’t even been worked out yet.
Details of the second phase are expected to be negotiated during the first. However, a draft agreement cited by the AP, indicates that during this phase, Hamas will release the remaining living hostages in exchange for a “complete withdrawal” of Israeli forces from Gaza. An Egyptian official allegedly told the AP that before the end of the first phase, there will be deals for phases two and three.
Phase three will supposedly include the return of all hostage bodies in exchange for Palestinian bodies, include a “rebuilding” plan for Gaza, and the reopening of border crossings from Gaza. The first two phases are each planned to last six weeks.
Is this deal the best that negotiators could get out of a very broken Hamas? Maybe. A bigger problem is that it might not matter what the negotiators in Doha agree upon, if Hamas in Gaza refuses to follow through. Mohammad Sinwar, the younger brother of the very dead Yahya Sinwar, is now reportedly in control on the ground – and if there is a split in Hamas leadership, then there may be no deal.
Mohammed Sinwar is at the center of Hamas’s revival effort. When Israeli soldiers killed his brother in October, the movement’s officials, based in the Qatari capital, Doha, decided to form a collective leadership council rather than appoint a new chief.
But Hamas militants in Gaza didn’t go along and now operate autonomously under the younger Sinwar, according to Arab mediators involved in cease-fire talks with Israel.
Mohammed Sinwar is believed to be about 50 and has long been considered close to his older brother, who was more than 10 years his senior. Like Yahya Sinwar, he joined Hamas at an early age and was considered close to the head of the movement’s armed wing, Mohammed Deif.
Months of efforts to reach a cease-fire that would free many of the hostages still being held in Gaza have been fruitless, amid deep-seated disagreements over issues including Israel’s demand that it be able to continue the fight after a pause.
Mohammed Sinwar has proved as stubborn as his older sibling in pushing for a permanent cease-fire that ensures Hamas’s survival, according to Arab officials mediating the talks.
“Hamas is in a very strong position to dictate its terms,” Mohammed Sinwar wrote late last year in one message to mediators that was shared with The Wall Street Journal. He wrote in another message: “If it is not a comprehensive deal that ends the sufferings of all Gazans and justifies their blood and sacrifices, Hamas will continue its fight.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the fighting will continue until Hamas is destroyed.
We are back once again to the fundamental problem within these negotiations. Hamas is holding the hostages to ensure their survival. So long as they hold even one hostage body, Israel is forced to deal with them. Are they really going to give up any leverage, or illusion of leverage? It depends on the consequences that an incoming Trump administration would be willing to impose. And Israel can’t have gone through this entire attack and war, only to leave a decimated-but-rebuilding Hamas in control of Gaza. There is no alternative to a Hamas-led government in Gaza at this moment. Fatah, which the Biden administration has been trying to promote as the alternative, is only a slightly less murdery variation of Hamas. Fatah is also paying lip service to keeping their distance from Hamas, if only to preserve their own position in the West Bank at the moment. The polling within the Palestinian Authority itself has Hamas’s popularity on the rise, and any election that had Fatah going head-to-head with Hamas would end poorly – for Fatah. There is no hidden democratic movement in Gaza that will acknowledge and accept Israel, and maintain a ceasefire.
Israel wants two things: the return of all the hostages, alive or dead, and the destruction of Hamas. If they have to delay the second goal to achieve the first goal, then that is what they will do. Given the track record up to this point regarding Hamas and ceasefires, I’m not optimistic that the details even get worked out fully for phase two before Hamas breaks the deal. While hostage families want the bodies of their loved ones back, the living must be prioritized over the dead.
I am desperately anxious to get the hostages home.
I am terrified about the price we will pay for this.
I am angry that things could have been different if the international community had pressured Hamas and its patrons.
I am a mix of strong emotions today.
— Eylon Levy (@EylonALevy) January 14, 2025
If phase one can be completed, and possibly phase two, then that would take a lot of bargaining chips off the table – to Israel’s relief and Hamas’s detriment, which is why phase two may never get fully negotiated. At that point, it will be on President Trump and his administration to back up his words of there being “hell to pay” and turning Israel loose on Hamas.
Hamas is likely holding out until the last minute to agree to this deal – and the last minute will be January 19th or 20th. But even the agreement to this draft signals that Hamas in Doha realizes that the players in the game are changing. Whether Hamas in Gaza is willing to cooperate may be a different story.
Featured image: flag of Israel by edu_castro27 via Pixabay, cropped and modified, Pixabay license
GWB says: gradual release of 33 hostages over six weeks
Oh, F that. Release them NOW. There’s no room for them to negotiate. Release them now, and no, you don’t get anyone back in exchange.
five female Israeli soldiers
If they were captured on Oct 7, then it doesn’t matter they are soldiers. No prisoner exchange.
who would be exchanged for 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 convicted militants
Unless you’re acknowledging that you are committing acts of war through these agents, they are off the table for negotiating. And if you are acknowledging that, then you admit your entire enterprise is a violation of the laws of war, and all of your fighters are not afforded the protection of the Geneva Convention.
There are way too many leftists in Israel. (There have always been way too many worshipers of other gods in Israel, and it always bites them in the behind.) If they did it right they would immediately classify all terrorists (including all those who participated in Oct 7) as war criminals, try them as such, and immediately hang them. (And dismember them so they can’t enter paradise, if you wanna go old school.) Then immediately punish the entire area via reprisals. At some point there will be no more terrorists left, or no one willing to continue that sort of activity. Done, your country is secure.
Are there reductions in released Palestinians if a body is returned instead of a living person?
I know how I would handle it. If we get dead hostages back, then you don’t get anyone back in exchange (caveat, see my above position). If you told us they were alive but they aren’t? Then we execute those life-sentence criminals you wanted back. Right there in front of you.
Again, the deal should be “Give us the hostages back. Now. You’re terrorists for kidnapping them in the first place, so the only leniency/trade you’ll get is continuing to breathe another day. Period. We understand if some of them are dead. You’ll get your little ceasefire. But, understand that after the ceasefire we’re still going to hunt you all down and kill you all. We will not rest until our country has been rendered safe from your deprivations. Period. The only way to stop that is to surrender unconditionally and stop your terrorism.”
Details of the second phase are expected to be negotiated during the first.
NEVER, EVER, allow this! No, you get the whole deal done or it’s not happening. This is the power of “hudna” which the muslims believe only keeps the peace until they are re-armed and can once again execute the jihad. So, only accept that first ceasefire if you can guarantee Hamas (and the rest of the terrorists) are sitting on their hands and not receiving new supplies of arms or munitions.
(BTW, food is considered war materiel. Why again is Israel required to send food to their enemy?)
Hamas will release the remaining living hostages in exchange for a “complete withdrawal” of Israeli forces from Gaza
Nope. You all proved you can’t be trusted. So not only no, but HE** NO.
a “rebuilding” plan for Gaza, and the reopening of border crossings from Gaza
You agree to either or both of those and you’re surrendering to Hamas, not declaring victory.
Make them rebuild their own da** “cities” with their own resources (and NO gifts from the UN!). I don’t care if they’re making bricks without straw – that’s on them for starting this crap. And NEVER re-open the border crossings. They don’t want to mingle with Israelis, then don’t let them. And they will use it later to attack you once again.
Is this deal the best that negotiators could get out of a very broken Hamas?
Not if you have a friggin’ spine, and understand what victory is. And it’s NOT how the Progressives define victory (for others). Beat them until they decide to never, ever do ANY terrorism, for the next 10 generations.
including Israel’s demand that it be able to continue the fight after a pause
So, Israel is telling them it’s a hudna? Sweet! Stick to your guns, Israel!
cease-fire that ensures Hamas’s survival
Well, that’s the sticking point. They are NOT going to surrender. So you’ll have to dig every last one of them out of the hidey-holes and tunnels and blast the entire place into a moonscape. They WANT this. They are ASKING for it. Give it to them.
ends the sufferings of all Gazans
Easy. SURRENDER.
and justifies their blood and sacrifices
Their “sacrifices” are in evil cause, and I hope they are never justified. They need to be cursed forever and their memories be blotted out from the people.
There is no hidden democratic movement in Gaza
There is no “democratic” movement anywhere within Palestinians. There is no “civilization” movement anywhere within Palestinians. Period. These people have a f***ed up set of morals that are evil to anyone who desires civilization. They need to be crushed and scattered to the wind (even more so than the ones who don’t live in Gaza or the West Bank).
Whether Hamas in Gaza is willing to cooperate may be a different story.
They CANNOT. It is against their religion, against their culture, against all of the propaganda that holds them in power. Their only reason for existence is wiping out all of the Jews. When someone is that bent on killing you, you don’t negotiate, you eliminate the threat.
GWB says: And I meant “depredations” not “deprivations.”
Hate_me says: Correct me if I’m wrong, but neither Israel nor Hamas are party to the Geneva Convention. It shouldn’t apply.
Beyond that, I largely concur.
Wfjag says: IMO the most important reason for the ceasefire agreement (if the reports on its terms are accurate) is that after all Biden-Harris did to strengthen Iran, and through Iran, its proxies while simultaneously undermining Israel and its abilities to defeat and destroy Iran’s proxies, Israel needs some time — to re/arm, train, re-equip and re-supply (from their own industries and U.S., and see if the Trump Administration can get the UK and France to lift their arms embargoes against Israel), see how Syria plays out and whether Hezbolla actually moves north in Lebanon, to get its own economy straightened out due to the effects of the extended call up of the Reserves, and perhaps most important, to give some time for sanctions which the Trump Administration will impose on Iran to take effect. This isn’t a Peace Treaty. It is only a pause.
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