When it comes to Republican primaries, the true conservative will usually beat out the RINO. This is usually true of any newcomer race — however, most incumbents are nearly impossible to beat. This is why you see, for example, Charlie Crist struggling in Florida against Marco Rubio, while Lindsay Graham gets reelected each time. Incumbents typically have the backing of the party establishment, lots of money to throw around, and heavy name recognition. Someone looking to challenge them is the underdog every time, and constituents usually need to be pretty darn fed up to kick out a congressman who has been in office for decades. Right now, it’s mostly Democrats who need to be worried, but with conservatism on the rise, I guess it should be no wonder that John McCain’s seat in the Senate isn’t looking too secure.

Senator John McCain’s future in the U.S. Senate may be a little less assured than previously thought.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters in Arizona finds the longtime incumbent in a virtual tie with potential challenger J.D. Hayworth. McCain earns 45% of the vote, while Hayworth picks up 43%.

Former Minuteman leader Chris Simcox gets four percent (4%) support, while two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Hayworth, a conservative former U.S. congressman who now is a popular radio talk show host in Phoenix, is reportedly interested in the race but has not formally declared for it.

John McCain ran a disastrous campaign last year. He could have won and been President McCain — I truly believe this — were it not for his own bungling. The stars did not align perfectly for Obama. There were plenty of mistakes made by the Obama campaign, plenty of cards McCain could have played. But his Democrat-Lite reputation pissed off a lot of people in his own party, and he made tons of mistakes. It no doubt left a sour taste in many voters’ mouths. And with amnesty about to rear its ugly head again, I’m not surprised that Arizona voters are considering kicking him to the curb.

Bill Kristol and AllahPundit are floating the possibility of Sarah Palin coming to bail him out. Allah goes over the reasons that this would be politically advantageous for Palin, but frankly, I hope she doesn’t. First, in my opinion, it’s high time we get rid of John McCain. He’s a giant squish who has made a career out of pissing off Republicans as much as possible. We need to be weeding out the RINOs right now, not doing everything we can to help them retain their seats. Second, Palin was treated abysmally by the McCain campaign staff. They handcuffed her, gagged her, and then once the campaign was over, abandoned her and then stabbed her in the back. McCain may himself have not said or done anything, but he looked the other way while it happened and certainly didn’t come to her defense. He is a brave, courageous man in many aspects, but in this one, he was a coward. Sarah Palin was a risky choice for him. He’s the maverick, the one who relishes being the media darling. I don’t think he enjoyed being hammered in the media, and she certainly didn’t lighten that load for him. He plucked her out of relative obscurity, and then left her to be fed to the wolves. Yet now, she’s supposed to come and bail him out? She’s a rising star; he’s an old has-been. He’ll probably need her help, and if I was Sarah Palin, I wouldn’t give it. The only downfall is it makes her look petty and vindictive. I would think the best move for her would be to endorse neither candidate and make some kind of non-committal statement about how McCain is a great person and not say much more.

Of course, Allah’s predicting that McCain will be too stubborn and prideful to go begging for her help. If he won’t, then it eliminates the burden off of her shoulders. Hopefully, that’s exactly what happens, and McCain fades to obscurity after this election cycle. His career’s frankly gone on way too long.