The most unsurprising news of the day, but still welcome:

After an August recess marked by raucous town halls, troubling polling data and widespread anecdotal evidence of a volatile electorate, the small universe of political analysts who closely follow House races is predicting moderate to heavy Democratic losses in 2010.

Some of the most prominent and respected handicappers can now envision an election in which Democrats suffer double-digit losses in the House — not enough to provide the 40 seats necessary to return the GOP to power but enough to put them within striking distance.

Top political analyst Charlie Cook, in a special August 20 update to subscribers, wrote that “the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats.”

“Many veteran congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats,” he wrote.

At the mid-August Netroots Nation convention, Nate Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website FiveThirtyEight.com a must read among political junkies, predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year. He further alarmed an audience of progressive activists by arguing that the GOP has between a 25 and 33 percent chance of winning back control of the House.

“A lot of Democratic freshmen and sophomores will be running in a much tougher environment than in 2006 and 2008 and some will adapt to it, but a lot of others will inevitably freak out and end up losing,” Silver told POLITICO. “Complacency is another factor: We have volunteers who worked really hard in 2006 and in 2008 for Obama but it’s less compelling [for them] to preserve the majority.”

… Turnout levels may also work in the GOP’s favor: House Democrats who narrowly won election in 2008 on the strength of high turnout among African-Americans and young voters probably won’t be able to count on that same level of enthusiasm next year in a nonpresidential election.

If the election was held tomorrow, then yes, I think these predictions would be accurate. But the people aren’t going to get happier with Democrats. They’re going to be getting angrier as time goes on, especially if Obama’s government run health care reform passes, and then on top of that, cap-and-trade. People are fed up with the big-spenders in Washington. They’re fed up with the corruption and the lack of transparency. They’re fed up with partisan politics and lies. They’re fed up with politicians who feel entitled to power and the arrogance of thinking that politicians know better than they do how to run their lives. As time goes on, these feelings are going to get stronger, and Democrats will see a lot of heavy bleeding in 2010.

Now, Democrats could potentially save themselves. It would be relatively easy. They could, for example, back off of health care. They could start trying to cut back on spending. They could decide to stop giving themselves raises. But the chances of Democrats doing any of this is about as likely to happen as Barack Obama owning up to his own mistakes instead of blaming them on George Bush. In other words, it’s next to impossible. And so, it’s very possible that the GOP could regain control of Congress in 2010, provided they play their cards right.

The Democrats are a mess right now. They took their one chance at power and they squandered it without ever really stopping to think what the consequences would be. And unfortunately (for them), the consequences will be harsh.

Hat Tip: House of Eratosthenes